**Unity is overrated. Sanctions based on the formula “EU minus one” exert more pressure than watered-down punitive measures. A commentary.**
Viktor Orbán and Recep Tayyip Erdogan are getting on the nerves of many Europeans. They are torpedoing unity against Vladimir Putin’s war.
The Turkish president is blocking the admission of Finland and Sweden to Nato. The Hungarian prime minister is blocking the EU’s sixth sanctions package.
After the supposed agreement at the EU summit on the oil embargo, Orbán follows up: The Russian patriarch Kirill, who acts as a propagandist for Putin’s war, must be exempted from personal sanctions. The EU bows to Orbán.
This is a mistake. Europe must find ways of forcing collective action on troublemakers who abuse the desire for unity for blackmail manoeuvres.
**Why give in? An oil embargo works even without Hungary**
This is easier with the Russia sanctions than with Nato enlargement. Unity is overrated as a symbol of political strength. Especially where it is not necessary.
In principle, any number of EU states could agree to boycott Russian oil. The main thing is that their combined share of purchases is sufficient to put pressure on Russia. An EU oil embargo would work even without Hungary.
The EU would then not have to make a concession to Orbán for his yes. It could even speak confidently of “EU minus one” sanctions.
At every public mention of the term, Orbán would be pilloried for preventing unity. In this case, “consensus minus one” would exert more pressure than a watered-down sanctions package.
[deepl translation]
As a pro-EU Hungarian, reading something like this is very scary.
It’s getting on my nerves that Orban and Erdogan are using this to get short-term acknowledgement in their countries.
Orban needs to get kicked out of EU. My opinion.
Being a devil’s advocate, Hungarian position has some rationality.
East EU countries will suffer this decoupling from Russia the hardest, It will hurt their economies massively, it’s not just about the gas or oil. The economic cost will be in the hundreds of Brexits.
Baltic countries with their stiff upper lip are already suffering +15% inflation and gdp decline in Q1 (even after covid).
Orban the dictator: his goal will be to provide economic growth or at least stability for his continuous re-election, opinions from other EU countries are irrelevant to him.
Average Hungarian definitely doesn’t like Russians, but has an issue, why he should pay in double %digits in his wealth to punishing Russia,
while at the same time much richer Nato/EU regions like Irland, Iceland, UK, Norway, DK, DE will contribute much less or some will even profit from oil prices.
Turkey and Hungary have just decided not to be part of the future solution of European Security System.
6 comments
**Unity is overrated. Sanctions based on the formula “EU minus one” exert more pressure than watered-down punitive measures. A commentary.**
Viktor Orbán and Recep Tayyip Erdogan are getting on the nerves of many Europeans. They are torpedoing unity against Vladimir Putin’s war.
The Turkish president is blocking the admission of Finland and Sweden to Nato. The Hungarian prime minister is blocking the EU’s sixth sanctions package.
After the supposed agreement at the EU summit on the oil embargo, Orbán follows up: The Russian patriarch Kirill, who acts as a propagandist for Putin’s war, must be exempted from personal sanctions. The EU bows to Orbán.
This is a mistake. Europe must find ways of forcing collective action on troublemakers who abuse the desire for unity for blackmail manoeuvres.
**Why give in? An oil embargo works even without Hungary**
This is easier with the Russia sanctions than with Nato enlargement. Unity is overrated as a symbol of political strength. Especially where it is not necessary.
In principle, any number of EU states could agree to boycott Russian oil. The main thing is that their combined share of purchases is sufficient to put pressure on Russia. An EU oil embargo would work even without Hungary.
The EU would then not have to make a concession to Orbán for his yes. It could even speak confidently of “EU minus one” sanctions.
At every public mention of the term, Orbán would be pilloried for preventing unity. In this case, “consensus minus one” would exert more pressure than a watered-down sanctions package.
[deepl translation]
As a pro-EU Hungarian, reading something like this is very scary.
It’s getting on my nerves that Orban and Erdogan are using this to get short-term acknowledgement in their countries.
Orban needs to get kicked out of EU. My opinion.
Being a devil’s advocate, Hungarian position has some rationality.
East EU countries will suffer this decoupling from Russia the hardest, It will hurt their economies massively, it’s not just about the gas or oil. The economic cost will be in the hundreds of Brexits.
Baltic countries with their stiff upper lip are already suffering +15% inflation and gdp decline in Q1 (even after covid).
Orban the dictator: his goal will be to provide economic growth or at least stability for his continuous re-election, opinions from other EU countries are irrelevant to him.
Average Hungarian definitely doesn’t like Russians, but has an issue, why he should pay in double %digits in his wealth to punishing Russia,
while at the same time much richer Nato/EU regions like Irland, Iceland, UK, Norway, DK, DE will contribute much less or some will even profit from oil prices.
Turkey and Hungary have just decided not to be part of the future solution of European Security System.
Speaking about the oil embargo: it seems that Slovakia just starting to realize how deep shit did they maneuver into with joining the embargo. https://www.trend.sk/spravy/fatalne-zlyhanie-slovenskej-diplomacie-schvalene-sankcie-januara-zatvoria-slovnaft (use google translate)
Maybe the EU would be stronger if everybody would start think ahead at least 2-3 steps.