For context, there are five political parties in Estonian parliament (101 seats in total):
* Reform Party – 34 seats
* Fiscal: Right-wing
* Social: Centre-left
* Ideology: Classical liberalism
* Centre Party – 26 seats
* Fiscal: Centre-left to left-wing
* Social: Centre to centre-right
* Ideology: Left-wing populism (in reality, on paper ‘social liberalism’)
* Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (EKRE) – 19 seats
* Fiscal: Centre to centre-left
* Social: Right-wing to far right
* Ideology: Right-wing populism (on paper national conservatism)
* Pro Patria – 12 seats
* Fiscal: Centre-right to right-wing
* Social: Right-wing
* Ideology: Social conservatism
* Social Democrats – 10 seats
* Fiscal: Centre-left
* Social: Left-wing
* Ideology: Social democracy
In total five minimal-winning coalitions are theoretically possible:
1. The ‘[Grand Coalition](https://i.imgur.com/mVBnX9n.png)’ – Reform Party + Centre Party. The outgoing coalition, consisting of the two biggest parties. Those two parties are generally the biggest rivals and not much love lost between them.
2. The ‘Good Old’ [Triparty Coalition](https://i.imgur.com/Ry6RPpi.png) – Reform Party + Pro Patria + Social Democrats. The most likely next coalition. This coalition is pretty diverse in terms of ideology, as it has liberals, conservatives and social democrats, but is generally united by strongly pro-EU and pro-NATO positions, and opposition to populism.
3. The [Populist-Conservative Coalition](https://i.imgur.com/U9kE6bc.png) – Centre Party + EKRE + Pro Patria. The first coalition tried after the last election. Lasted for about two years, but fell officially due to a corruption scandal, but had many problems related to many unsavoury things said by EKRE leaders.
4. The [Right-Wing Coalition](https://i.imgur.com/S1o5rsB.png) – Reform Party + EKRE. Coalition between the most economically right-wing and socially right-wing parties. Ruled out by Reform.
5. The [Economically Left-Wing Coalition](https://i.imgur.com/det4cWk.png) – Centre Party + EKRE + Social Democrats. Only thing which would unite those three parties would be left-of-centre views on fiscal policy. But pretty much impossible as Social Democrats have ruled out ruling with EKRE, who have also ruled out ruling with the Social Democrats.
Here’s her full post from FB (translated with DeepL):
Dear Estonian people,
I have just proposed to the President of the Republic to dismiss ministers Jaak Aab, Tanel Kiik, Eva-Maria Liimets, Taavi Aas, Kristian Jaani, Erki Savisaar and Tiit Terik.
Estonia needs now more than ever a functioning government based on shared values. As Prime Minister, the security situation in Europe does not give me any opportunity to continue my cooperation with the Centre Party, which, in the face of its internal divisions, is incapable of putting Estonia’s interests above those of its own party and its various wings. For me, the final and decisive moment was when the draft on Estonian-language primary education, which had been approved by consensus by the government, was rejected in the Riigikogu on Wednesday by the votes of the Centre Party and the EKRE. I believed that 24 February and the genocide perpetrated by Russia in Ukraine had opened the eyes of all the political parties in the Riigikogu to the importance to Estonia’s independence of our common understanding of the dangers we face as a country neighbouring Russia. Unfortunately, it emerged the day before yesterday that there are two political parties in the Riigikogu which, even in the current situation, cannot pull themselves together and stand up for the protection of our independence and constitutional values.
When I became Prime Minister, I pledged to devote my energies to securing the future of the Estonian people. We will secure that future not only by increasing military spending, but above all by the unity of our people and their unwavering will to defend their independence. The prerequisite and the foundation for this is knowledge of the Estonian language. In a situation where the Centre Party is actively working in the government against the most important fundamental values for Estonia, we can no longer continue to cooperate with them.
Add to this the fact that none of the Centre Party ministers, apart from Kristian Jaani and Eva-Maria Liimetsa, have NATO secret clearances, and it is impossible to govern with such a ministerial composition in wartime. I therefore legalised a situation that has in fact been in place for a long time and took the proposals for the dismissal of the Centre Party ministers to Kadriorg.
I have proposed to Isamaa and the Social Democrats to start talks on a new coalition. As long as there is no new coalition, the remaining ministers will continue in accordance with the procedure for replacing ministers. Estonia needs a stable government that can deal with the major challenges facing the country.
2 comments
For context, there are five political parties in Estonian parliament (101 seats in total):
* Reform Party – 34 seats
* Fiscal: Right-wing
* Social: Centre-left
* Ideology: Classical liberalism
* Centre Party – 26 seats
* Fiscal: Centre-left to left-wing
* Social: Centre to centre-right
* Ideology: Left-wing populism (in reality, on paper ‘social liberalism’)
* Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (EKRE) – 19 seats
* Fiscal: Centre to centre-left
* Social: Right-wing to far right
* Ideology: Right-wing populism (on paper national conservatism)
* Pro Patria – 12 seats
* Fiscal: Centre-right to right-wing
* Social: Right-wing
* Ideology: Social conservatism
* Social Democrats – 10 seats
* Fiscal: Centre-left
* Social: Left-wing
* Ideology: Social democracy
[Here’s](https://i.imgur.com/QLdGrz8.png) how they position on the political spectrum.
In total five minimal-winning coalitions are theoretically possible:
1. The ‘[Grand Coalition](https://i.imgur.com/mVBnX9n.png)’ – Reform Party + Centre Party. The outgoing coalition, consisting of the two biggest parties. Those two parties are generally the biggest rivals and not much love lost between them.
2. The ‘Good Old’ [Triparty Coalition](https://i.imgur.com/Ry6RPpi.png) – Reform Party + Pro Patria + Social Democrats. The most likely next coalition. This coalition is pretty diverse in terms of ideology, as it has liberals, conservatives and social democrats, but is generally united by strongly pro-EU and pro-NATO positions, and opposition to populism.
3. The [Populist-Conservative Coalition](https://i.imgur.com/U9kE6bc.png) – Centre Party + EKRE + Pro Patria. The first coalition tried after the last election. Lasted for about two years, but fell officially due to a corruption scandal, but had many problems related to many unsavoury things said by EKRE leaders.
4. The [Right-Wing Coalition](https://i.imgur.com/S1o5rsB.png) – Reform Party + EKRE. Coalition between the most economically right-wing and socially right-wing parties. Ruled out by Reform.
5. The [Economically Left-Wing Coalition](https://i.imgur.com/det4cWk.png) – Centre Party + EKRE + Social Democrats. Only thing which would unite those three parties would be left-of-centre views on fiscal policy. But pretty much impossible as Social Democrats have ruled out ruling with EKRE, who have also ruled out ruling with the Social Democrats.
Here’s her full post from FB (translated with DeepL):
Dear Estonian people,
I have just proposed to the President of the Republic to dismiss ministers Jaak Aab, Tanel Kiik, Eva-Maria Liimets, Taavi Aas, Kristian Jaani, Erki Savisaar and Tiit Terik.
Estonia needs now more than ever a functioning government based on shared values. As Prime Minister, the security situation in Europe does not give me any opportunity to continue my cooperation with the Centre Party, which, in the face of its internal divisions, is incapable of putting Estonia’s interests above those of its own party and its various wings. For me, the final and decisive moment was when the draft on Estonian-language primary education, which had been approved by consensus by the government, was rejected in the Riigikogu on Wednesday by the votes of the Centre Party and the EKRE. I believed that 24 February and the genocide perpetrated by Russia in Ukraine had opened the eyes of all the political parties in the Riigikogu to the importance to Estonia’s independence of our common understanding of the dangers we face as a country neighbouring Russia. Unfortunately, it emerged the day before yesterday that there are two political parties in the Riigikogu which, even in the current situation, cannot pull themselves together and stand up for the protection of our independence and constitutional values.
When I became Prime Minister, I pledged to devote my energies to securing the future of the Estonian people. We will secure that future not only by increasing military spending, but above all by the unity of our people and their unwavering will to defend their independence. The prerequisite and the foundation for this is knowledge of the Estonian language. In a situation where the Centre Party is actively working in the government against the most important fundamental values for Estonia, we can no longer continue to cooperate with them.
Add to this the fact that none of the Centre Party ministers, apart from Kristian Jaani and Eva-Maria Liimetsa, have NATO secret clearances, and it is impossible to govern with such a ministerial composition in wartime. I therefore legalised a situation that has in fact been in place for a long time and took the proposals for the dismissal of the Centre Party ministers to Kadriorg.
I have proposed to Isamaa and the Social Democrats to start talks on a new coalition. As long as there is no new coalition, the remaining ministers will continue in accordance with the procedure for replacing ministers. Estonia needs a stable government that can deal with the major challenges facing the country.