For Ukraine, a U.S. strike on Iran would have at least one negative consequence: a deeper shortage of PAC-3 MSE interceptors for Patriot systems and APKWS rockets used against Shahed-type drones. At the same time, it would also affect russia, as Tehran remains one of Moscow’s last significant strategic partners.
Although Washington’s ultimate objective in launching an air campaign remains unclear, the United States may pursue a minimum goal of destroying critical elements of Iran’s missile and nuclear programs. A broader scenario could include eliminating the ruling elite and triggering a change of power.
Read more: iran May Have Shot Down Second U.S. MQ-4C Triton Drone — In Exact Same Spot as 2019 Incident Destruction of Iran’s Defense Industry
Given the concentration of U.S. forces in the region, it is reasonable to expect that Washington could at least severely damage, if not completely destroy, key facilities of Iran’s defense industry. The primary focus would undoubtedly be nuclear infrastructure. Despite White House statements about the total destruction of the Fordow facility, doubts remain. Moreover, Iran’s nuclear program extends beyond a single underground plant. Tehran is also developing other types of weapons of mass destruction.
Map of key Iranian nuclear program facilities
Missile production facilities are also likely targets, as missiles remain the backbone of Iran’s arsenal and potential delivery systems for weapons of mass destruction. In addition, the Pentagon would likely target the production of long-range drones, which Iran could launch in large numbers against U.S. bases in the region.
If the operation continues for an extended period, it could evolve into a systematic dismantling of Iran’s defense industry aimed at critically degrading its capabilities and disrupting key production chains. Ultimately, Iran’s ability to supply weapons to russia could be either temporarily or permanently reduced.
This would mean fewer arms deliveries to the Kremlin. However, it would be incorrect to assume that Iranian supplies are critical for Moscow. Continued deliveries of original Shahed drones from Iran are uncertain, and ammunition shipments are unlikely to be decisive for russia. Nevertheless, reducing russia’s sources of armaments remains strategically important because it narrows the Kremlin’s overall procurement base.
Underground IRGC base housing Shahed dronesIf russia Comes to Iran’s Aid
The most favorable scenario for Ukraine would be one in which the Kremlin decides to assist Iran.
There have reportedly been agreements on the sale of 500 Verba man-portable air defense systems and 2,500 9M336 missiles. This is unlikely to be a long-term contract, as Iran would require these systems immediately. Such deliveries would almost certainly come from existing russian stockpiles.
Iran would also need additional air defense systems and ammunition. russia could attempt to supply missiles for S-300 and Tor systems previously delivered to Iran, as well as for the Raad system, which is based on the Buk platform. Given the expected attrition of Iranian air defenses, Moscow might also consider transferring additional surface-to-air missile systems and surveillance radars. These transfers would likely come from russia’s own inventory, weakening its domestic air defense posture and potentially increasing the effectiveness of Ukrainian long-range strikes.
Raad surface-to-air missile system
russia is also reportedly preparing to supply Iran with Su-35 fighter aircraft, which would require munitions, spare parts, and technical support. If these aircraft are not destroyed in the early stages of U.S. operations, their deployment could force Moscow to reinforce Iran’s air component at the expense of its own forces.
Even covert russian military assistance to Iran would likely be exposed and could significantly worsen relations between Washington and Moscow. Such deterioration would be more advantageous for Ukraine than the current status quo.
If russia refrains from assisting Iran, which remains a plausible scenario, this would simply shorten the time required for the United States to achieve its objectives. In strategic terms, either decision by the Kremlin to support Iran or to remain passive would ultimately create more favorable conditions for Ukraine.