Summary and Key Points: Harrison Kass, a national security journalist and former USAF pilot selectee, evaluates the “unsustainable” expenditure of Tomahawk (TLAM) missiles during Operation Epic Fury.
-With an estimated 400 launches from 13 U.S. Navy destroyers and submarines in the first three days, the Navy has consumed nearly five years of production at current rates.
USS Iowa 19FortyFive image of Tomahawk Missiles on USS Iowa.
-This 19FortyFive report analyzes the three critical bottlenecks—solid rocket motor shortages, single-source precision components, and “cold” production lines—exploring how this “Shock and Awe” phase undermines readiness for a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait and delays deliveries to allies like Japan and Australia.
The Tomahawk Trap: Why Operation Epic Fury in Iran is Draining the U.S. Navy’s Pacific Deterrent
Operation Epic Fury has exacerbated the United States’s critical Tomahawk missile shortage with a rate of expenditure that is unsustainable and has the potential to leave the US vulnerable if a larger conflict, like war in the Taiwan Strait, were to erupt.
Finite Supplies of Tomahawk Missiles
The Tomahawk is one of the US Navy’s most flexible and survivable first-night strike tools. But the Tomahawk is also finite, slow to replenish, and tied to submarine/surface ship magazine limits.
Launched from subs and ships, the Tomahawk is a long-range, low-altitude, terrain-following missile capable of evading radar.
Artist’s concept of an Ohio-class SSGN launching Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles.
With GPS/INS guidance, the Tomahawk offers precision strike against fixed targets. Especially valuable in the first days of a conflict, the Tomahawk is often used to suppress IADS nodes and strike C2 hubs, air bases, missile batteries, radars, and hardened facilities.
Launched from outside dense air defenses, the Tomahawk is a “standoff” weapon that doesn’t risk pilots or aircraft in the opening phase of conflict, in which air defense systems are still intact.
Tomahawk Tech Specs
The Tomahawk can be launched from Vertical Launch Systems (VLS) on cruisers, destroyers, and submarines (which can also launch the Tomahawk from torpedo tubes on some SSNs).
Once launched, the Tomahawk follows a subsonic low-altitude flight profile that is low observable, because of terrain-following, but not truly stealth.
Skimming along the sea, following terrain, the Tomahawk follows waypoints on a planned route to a fixed target. The conventional warhead is designed for precision.
The Tomahawk’s limitations include subsonic speed, which results in slower time-to-target relative to ballistic or hypersonic missiles, and can make the Tomahawk vulnerable to IADS interception if it is saturated poorly or routed predictably. And the Tomahawk is best used against fixed targets, limiting the weapon’s application.
Tomahawk Cruise Missile. Image Credit: US Navy.
Limited Magazine Depth
The US Navy has burned through significant portions of its limited Tomahawk arsenal. Current annual production has hovered around 90 units, considered the minimum sustainment rate, but the US has moved to significantly increase production.
But each Tomahawk requires up to two years to build due to specialized components and a limited supplier base.
Three critical bottlenecks drive the 24-month lead time:
One: propulsion system shortages; the solid rocket motor supply chain is extremely thin, with only a few specialized subcontractors capable of manufacturing them.
Second, specialized components; each missile contains thousands of precision parts, including advanced seekers and terrain-matching sensors—many of which rely on single-source suppliers.
Three, “cold” production lines; manufacturers cannot just surge production overnight when something like Operation Epic Fury commences.
So replacing a single large-scale operation’s expenditure, like the 800 used in Operation Iraqi Freedom, would take a decade at the 90 units-per-year rate.
At sea aboard USS Stethem (DDG 63) Ð A Tactical Tomahawk Cruise Missile launches from the guided missile destroyer USS Stethem (DDG 63) during a live-warhead test. The missile traveled 760 nautical miles to successfully impact itÕs intended target on San Clemente Island, part of the Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR) test range in Southern California. The Tactical Tomahawk is the next generation of Tomahawk cruise missile, adds the capability to reprogram the missile while in-flight to strike any of 15 preprogrammed alternate targets, or redirect the missile to any Global Positioning System (GPS) target coordinates. It also will be able to loiter over a target area for some hours, and with its on-board TV camera, will allow the war fighting commanders to assess battle damage of the target, and, if necessary redirect the missile to any other target. Launched from the Navy’s forward-deployed ships and submarines, Tactical Tomahawk will provide a greater flexibility to the on-scene commander. Tactical Tomahawk is scheduled to join the fleet in 2004. U.S. Navy photo. (RELEASED)
Tomahawk Missile. Image: Creative Commons.
Epic Expenditure
The opening “shock and awe” phase of Operational Epic Fury featured nearly 900 total strikes in the first 12 hours. The Tomahawk was used as one of the primary weapons to dismantle Iranian air defenses in the opening salvo.
How many Tomahawks have been fired, approximately, is unclear. But over 13 US Navy destroyers have been visually confirmed to have launched multiple barrages; estimates hold that as many as 400 Tomahawks were fired in the first 72 hours.
That consumption rate equates to about ten percent of the Navy’s entire ready-to-fire inventory, raising alarms about an “empty rack” scenario if a second conflict were to begin elsewhere, say in the Pacific. At the Navy’s 2025 Tomahawk production rate of 72 missiles, the first three days’ worth of Epic Fury would require five years to replenish.
Deterrence Expenditure
Adversaries are watching—not just Tomahawk capability, but also sustainment capability. Allies are watching, too, curious as to whether the US can sustain a fight past week one. The expenditure of finite resources on the Middle East imposes an opportunity cost in more vital theaters, such as the Indo-Pacific.
The consumption of Tomahawks undermines Pacific readiness, whether justified or not. Allies, such as Japan and Australia, that have purchased the Tomahawk are likely to face delivery delays.
And a worst-case scenario, war in the Taiwan Strait, could potentially exhaust the Navy’s entire Tomahawk inventory in mere days.
About the Author: Harrison Kass
Harrison Kass is an attorney and journalist covering national security, technology, and politics. Previously, he was a political staffer and candidate, and a US Air Force pilot selectee. He holds a JD from the University of Oregon and a master’s in global journalism and international relations from NYU.