The draw for the 2026 World Cup came and went, but it did not change the list of favorites in the betting odds. We’re officially 100 days out, and with the March playoffs approaching, Spain is still the favorite to win it all on BetMGM with +400 odds (4-to-1).
The Spaniards are coming off a triumph at Euro 2024 and are armed with one of the best players on the planet in 18-year-old Lamine Yamal. The phenom will be making his World Cup debut and has a chance to become the youngest Golden Boot winner ever. Spain is in Group H with Uruguay, Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia.
England and France are the next contenders. England is currently listed at +550 (11-to-2), and France is right behind at +700 (7-to-1). England hasn’t won a World Cup away from its home soil, winning only as host in 1966. France has made the last two finals (winning in 2018 and losing in 2022) and is still armed with Kylian Mbappé, 2025 Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembélé and plenty of talented young players from Paris Saint-Germain’s Champions League victory. The French have made four of the past seven World Cup finals, a feat that only Brazil and Germany can also claim.
While Spain, England and France are logical favorites given the strengths of their squads, European teams have only won two of the 11 World Cups that took place outside of Europe. Those two triumphs were recent (Spain in South Africa in 2010 and Germany in Brazil in 2014), but history is on the side of the South American teams.
The top South American teams are next in the odds. Brazil, the country with the most World Cup titles at five, is +800 (8-to-1). It’s unusual to see Brazil this low down the odds board, but the Seleção haven’t made a semifinal since 2014, and last made a final in 2002, which are droughts only by Brazil’s incredible standards. This team isn’t as loaded as the Brazilian teams of the past, but that’s still a relative statement with Vinícius Júnior, Richarlison and Marquinhos still giving Brazil high-level and experienced players to lead the way.
Defending champion Argentina is also at +800 (8-to-1). It’s almost hard to remember a time when Lionel Messi was seeking his first major trophy with his country. Argentina has rattled off three straight wins with the 2021 Copa America, 2022 World Cup and 2024 Copa America. Messi is dominating Major League Soccer, but can he still make an impact at a World Cup during which he will turn 39 years old?
Messi’s counterpart for much of the generation, Cristiano Ronaldo, will face similar questions at 41 years old by the start of the tournament. Portugal is behind Argentina at +1100 (11-to-1). Given his age, this appears to be Ronaldo’s last World Cup, although that was said four years ago as well.
As for the hosts, the Americans and Mexicans are both long shots at +5000 (50-to-1). Both teams’ odds shifted from 66-to-1 after getting what appear to be favorable draws on paper. Canada’s odds are even longer at 150-to-1. Six hosts have won, but the last host to win was France in 1998. Only two hosts have gone out in the group stage, but two of the last four did (South Africa in 2010 and Qatar in 2022).
If you’re looking for a sleeper team that isn’t usually a contender, Norway is ninth on the odds board at 25-to-1. Norway was perfect in qualifying, including beating Italy twice, and has Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard as top-line stars. This is Norway’s first World Cup appearance since 1998, so it’s unusual to see them expected to make a run.