Denmark’s election could force a sale of the state’s 50.1% stake in Ørsted, adding political risk as the wind giant shows financial recovery with strong 2025 results and asset sales.
As Denmark approaches a pivotal parliamentary election, the nation’s flagship renewable energy company, Ørsted, finds itself at the heart of a significant political debate. The core question is whether the government should divest its 50.1% controlling stake. This introduces a fresh layer of uncertainty for investors, arriving just as the firm is working to solidify its operational and financial footing. The election’s outcome could fundamentally alter the company’s ownership structure.
Financial Recovery Amidst Political Scrutiny
This political discussion unfolds against a backdrop of tangible corporate stabilization. For 2025, Ørsted reported EBITDA (excluding new partnership agreements and cancellation fees) of DKK 25.1 billion, landing within its own projected range of DKK 24 to 27 billion. The company posted a net profit of DKK 3.2 billion for the year.
Concurrently, Ørsted has strengthened its capital structure following the completion of a rights issue. Furthermore, its divestment program for 2025 and 2026 was concluded ahead of schedule, generating higher proceeds than initially anticipated. Looking ahead to 2026, the company forecasts EBITDA (excluding new partnerships and cancellation fees) to exceed DKK 28 billion, with gross investments projected between DKK 50 and 55 billion.
A key element of this strategy is the sale of its entire European onshore business to Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP) via the Copenhagen Infrastructure V fund. This transaction carries a value of €1.44 billion (DKK 10.7 billion) and is expected to finalize in the second quarter of 2026, pending regulatory approvals. In total, agreed proceeds from asset sales in 2025–2026 amount to approximately DKK 46 billion, surpassing the target of more than DKK 35 billion.
Mounting Pressure for State Divestment
According to reports from Finans, four parties from Denmark’s right-wing bloc are advocating for a concrete plan to exit the state’s shareholding following the March 24th election. An additional party, the Liberals (part of the current governing coalition), is reportedly not fundamentally opposed. Collectively, these five parties hold roughly 40% of the current parliamentary seats.
Proposals from two of these parties also suggest that assets deemed critical to national energy infrastructure should be ring-fenced and retained before any sale proceeds.
The state’s deep financial involvement provides context for the sensitivity of this issue. The government recently participated in a rescue package, covering half of a DKK 60 billion capital raise in October that was designed to help Ørsted weather the downturn in the wind power sector. The topic remains politically charged; a 2014 sale of a stake by the finance ministry to Goldman Sachs triggered major protests and led to the collapse of the ruling coalition after the Socialist People’s Party withdrew.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Orsted?
Election Polls: A Clear Majority Remains Elusive
Credit analyst Jakob Magnussen of Danske Bank noted that a shift from the current center-led government to a right-wing coalition could mean Ørsted’s days as a state-majority-owned enterprise are “numbered.” However, he also pointed out that current polling suggests a left-leaning government is more likely, one that has not signaled any willingness to sell.
The most recent poll by public broadcaster DR indicates the five right-leaning parties would secure 74 of the 179 parliamentary seats, falling short of a majority. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen called the snap election following a rise in her approval ratings, which the report links to her firm stance against a reported U.S. initiative concerning Greenland’s annexation.
Market Sentiment and the Path Forward
Reflecting a cautiously optimistic view, Berenberg raised its price target on Ørsted shares to DKK 180 (from DKK 140) on February 26, reiterating its “Buy” recommendation. The bank cited a tentative restart in long-term growth planning after months of high volatility as the rationale.
The next scheduled milestone for investors is the upcoming financial report on May 6. Until then, the political narrative and the outcome of the March 24th election are likely to set the tone for the company’s near-term trajectory.
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