The Islamic Republic of Iran wanted “the bomb” to protect itself, yet its relentless pursuit of nuclear weapons could be its undoing. Tehran’s nuclear program was supposed to guarantee the regime’s survival; now, it risks provoking the fall of the militarized theocracy that has ruled Iran for 47 years. Nothing is decided yet. The regime is likely more resilient than many in Washington imagine and could withstand a month of joint American-Israeli bombardments. But the question remains – a question that must haunt Iranian leaders: What has been the point of this continuous and ruinous effort to provide the country with the capability to assemble a nuclear weapon?
A master of hidden meaning, the Islamic Republic has always maintained an ambiguous stance. In the early 1970s, Iran signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), which forbids it from acquiring “the bomb” but grants access to civilian nuclear technology. After briefly abandoning a project initiated under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who was overthrown in 1979, Iranian leaders revived it at the end of the war that, from 1980 to 1988, pitting their country against Iraq.
They swore their program had only civilian aims, but at the same time, made sure to suggest that they were gaining the expertise and means necessary to master the production of a nuclear weapon – a posture that earned Tehran, at the start of the century, the first in a series of ongoing sanctions that continue to this day. Throughout a tumultuous saga of negotiations and confrontations, Iran stuck to the same approach: proclaiming its fidelity to its NPT commitments, while simultaneously developing a missile arsenal and uranium enrichment facilities that far exceeded civilian needs. In short: Iran wants the bomb – some day.
Asymmetric battle
Nevertheless, there was no imminent danger. Less than a year ago, the CIA, assessing threats to the security of the US and its allies, wrote that Iran was in no way on the verge of deploying a nuclear device. There was no pressing threat on that front when US President Donald Trump, interrupting negotiations with Tehran, launched a war conducted jointly with Israel on Saturday, February 28.
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