Eurozone GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2025 missed expectations slightly, with the latest data showing a 0.2% expansion for both the euro area and EU. Economists were expecting growth of 0.3%.

Growth slowed from the third quarter, which saw an uptick of 0.3% in the euro area and 0.4% in the EU, according to Eurostat.

For the year 2025 as a whole, GDP increased by 1.4% in the euro area and by 1.5% in the EU.

Compared with the same quarter of 2024, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 1.2% in the euro area and by 1.4% in the EU in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Ireland saw the biggest GDP contraction in the latest figures, with a dip of 3.8%.

Meanwhile, unemployment dipped by 0.2% in both the euro area and the EU in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared with the previous quarter.

For 2025 as a whole, the number of people in work increased by 0.7% in the euro area and by 0.5% in the EU, after an increase of 1% and +0.8% respectively in 2024.

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The figures will be closely watched by the European Central Bank (ECB), which is on high alert as concerns percolate about potential inflationary effects from rising energy prices. Conflict between Iran and the US has prompted a spike in oil and gas prices over the past few days with key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz facing shutdowns.

Questions still remain about how threats from US president Donald Trump of ever escalating tariffs will continue to play out.

ECB policymaker Jose Luis Escriva said on Friday morning that the bloc is very unlikely to change rates at its next meeting and will make any ‌decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.

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“With the information I have, I think it’s very unlikely that we will touch rates at the next meeting,” Escriva said, adding that “we can already take it for granted ‌that there will be effects” ⁠from the war.

Earlier this week, new data showed annual inflation for the euro area is estimated to have hit 1.9% in February, according to new data, up from 1.7% in January as it inches closer to the bloc’s target 2% mark. This was higher than anticipated by analysts.

A flash estimate released on Tuesday by Eurostat showed services is expected to have the highest annual rate in February (3.4%, compared with 3.2% in January), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (2.6%, stable compared with January), non-energy industrial goods (0.7%, compared with 0.4% in January) and energy (down 3.2%, compared with a decrease of 4% in January).

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