Lithuanian intelligence has warned that Russia is expanding its military units along NATO borders, gaining combat experience from Ukraine and potentially positioning these forces as hubs in any future conflict with NATO.
The annual security assessment, released Friday, also suggested that if Western sanctions are lifted, Russia could be ready for a “wide-scale military conflict” with NATO within six years, News.Az reports, citing Reuters.
“Russia would likely rebuild a 30–50% larger army than it had before the war, equipped with modern technology and fully restored strategic reserves of weapons and ammunition,” the report said. “This would prepare Russia for conventional military operations against NATO.”
According to the report, Russia’s key objectives remain tilting the balance of power in Europe and achieving complete control over Ukraine. Moscow’s military industry has grown with support from China, reducing its dependence on Western technology. The surplus of weapons post-war could pose “consequences for global security,” Lithuania’s intelligence warned.
Lithuania, which borders both Russia and Belarus, is a NATO and EU member and has been a strong supporter of Ukraine. The report referenced the 2024 parcel explosions in Lithuania, attributed to Russian military intelligence, which could be scaled up to target civilians.
At the same time, the report suggested that recent disruptions to gas pipelines, power cables, and telecom lines in the Baltic Sea, linked to ships from Russian ports, were not deliberate. The Baltic nations remain on high alert, and NATO has pledged to strengthen its regional presence.
In 2023, Finland recovered an anchor suspected to have damaged the gas pipeline between Estonia and Finland, along with several fiber-optic cables. Finnish authorities have not confirmed whether the incident was intentional.
Regarding the infrastructure disruptions, Mindaugas Mazonas, head of Lithuania’s military intelligence, said, “The investigation was not undertaken by our intelligence, but the conclusion is that this was a non-intentional incident.”