In 2026, 5.6 million Ukrainians live far from home. While the older generation is gradually returning to their homeland, young people from large cities continue to settle in Germany and Poland. Find out how many refugees actually plan to return to Ukraine
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The war has radically changed Ukraine’s demographic map. As of January 2026, 5.6 million Ukrainian refugees remain far from home. The Centre for Economic Strategy (CES) has published fresh data on who these people are, where they came from and, most importantly, whether there is a trend towards returning to their homeland.
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The scale of migration: how and where Ukrainians left
From the start of the full-scale war until the end of 2025, the difference between departures and arrivals in Ukraine recorded millions of people who remained abroad. The vast majority of them — 4 million people — left through the western borders. Another 277,000 Ukrainians reached European countries in transit through Russia or Belarus. In addition, according to the UN, about 1.3 million people became refugees directly in Russia and Belarus.
Portrait of a refugee: young people choose Europe, older people go home
The majority of Ukrainian refugees abroad are currently of working age, between 18 and 65 years old, accounting for 66% of all those who have left. In terms of gender and age, the largest group is adult women (40%), and almost a third (31%) are children under 18. Interestingly, over the past year, the proportion of adult men abroad has increased slightly, from 27% to 29%.
The main demographic shift of the year was a noticeable reduction in the proportion of refugees over the age of 45. Analytics confirm that older people are more likely to return home. In contrast, young people under the age of 35 are in no hurry to return to their homeland: they account for more than half (56%) of all refugees.
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Where they came from and where they live now
Migration primarily affected large urbanised regions. Only one in ten refugees left villages. The vast majority (64%) lived in large cities and regional centres before the war. Most people left the eastern and southern regions (52%), as well as Kyiv and the capital region (24%). In terms of individual cities, Kyiv (20%), Kharkiv (11%), Dnipro (7%) and Odesa (6%) lead the way.
As for countries of refuge, Ukrainians prefer Germany (23%) and Poland (19.5%). At the same time, the choice of country largely depends on age. Germany is more attractive to young people: 28% of all refugees under the age of 35 have settled there. Poland has become more comfortable for middle-aged people (35-49 years old) — almost a quarter of this age group lives there.
Who will return?
Although the data provided does not specify the exact percentage of those ‘wishing to return,’ demographic shifts provide a clear answer. The older generation has already begun the journey home — their presence abroad is declining.
However, the situation is much more complicated with young people and families with children. They are actively integrating, studying and working in European countries. The longer these people stay abroad, the stronger their ties to their new home become, making their return less likely and posing a serious demographic challenge for Ukraine in the future.
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Reminder! Temporary protection in Germany has a specific duration, and discussions about its future have already reached the official level. Ukrainians are advised not to delay decisions about their status, as the rules of residence may change after 2027. Find out what legalisation options are available and how to prepare in advance so as not to lose your right of residence.
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