The Federal Government’s decision this week to grant asylum to Iranian soccer players competing in the Women’s Asian Cup who may have faced persecution on return to their country has been welcomed but highlights the disparity between their position and the fate of other millions of other refugees affected by the Middle East conflict.
A public health emergency is unfolding in Iran and beyond as aid is disrupted to its large existing refugee population, and Iranians themselves flee the devastation of US and Israeli attacks.
While the BBC suggests that 100,000 Iranians have left their country already, with most travelling through Türkiye and Armenia, the majority of Iranians do not have the means to leave the country and join millions of displaced from across the region.
The escalation of conflict across the region, with Israel attacking southern Lebanon and calling for its mass evacuation, has triggered major population displacement, placing critical strain on already overstretched health systems and humanitarian support. The impact on the nearly two million people trapped in Gaza alone has been disastrous.
Oxfam has said there is “grave concern about the scale and impact the conflict will have on tens of millions of people across the region, where almost 60 million already rely on humanitarian aid.” It notes the conflict will “widen inequality gaps, intensify existing poverty and injustice, and limit the ability of humanitarian organisations to reach communities in need.”
While the United Nations High Council for Refugees (UNHCR) cannot confirm how many people are now on the move, already the International Organization for Migration is warning the European Union to prepare for mass migration from the region.
Meanwhile humanitarian supply chains for the World Health Organisation, Red Cross and Red Crescent have been disrupted by threats to air and shipping traffic, meaning shelter, food, water and medical aid are in jeopardy.
Iran’s refugee population
Before bombs fell on it last week, Iran hosted 1.65 million refugees from armed conflicts across the region, mainly from Afghanistan, according to UNHCR figures,
The humanitarian analysis project ACAPs estimates that, in 2025, Iran had one of the world’s largest Afghan refugee populations with around 750,000 registered people and up to 2.6 million undocumented refugees, 96 percent of whom are living in the country’s urban areas. In response to the new crisis, some are returning home despite fears of political reprisal if they do so.
A UNHCR statement notes the precarious situation of these refugees and others from Syria, Iraq and Lebanon: “Even before this conflict, refugees in Iran were impacted by the country’s dire economic situation.”
“High inflation and a rising cost of living [had] eroded fragile incomes, while limited access to employment left many struggling to meet their needs. Tighter residency controls and deportations increased insecurity, pushing some … to return home under difficult conditions.”
Many have suffered malnutrition and faced significant barriers to accessing primary healthcare, where it is available.
While the UNHCR has worked with Iran’s Ministry of Health and Medical Education to provide refugees with free primary healthcare, including vaccinations, essential medicines and maternal and child health, only those registered have had access to secondary and tertiary care via Iran’s Universal Public Health Insurance (UPHI) – and only then if they can pay the premiums.
With the conflict now destabilising even that limited access to healthcare, this burden is now falling disproportionately on emergency aid organisations operating on the country’s borders.
Global aid organisations
Médecins Sans Frontières/Doctors Without Borders (MSF) said it is adapting its programs to respond, and closely monitoring the rapidly evolving humanitarian needs particularly in preparation for a potential flow of refugees along the borders of countries including Türkiye, Armenia, Iraq, Syria, Iran and Lebanon.
MSF told Croakey that in Lebanon tens of thousands of people have been displaced, with Israel issuing evacuation orders for eight per cent of the country.
Jeremy Ristord, MSF’s Head of Programmes in Lebanon says, “Our teams are responding by running mobile clinics for displaced communities and providing clean water, but the needs are immense.”
“Families, some of whom were still displaced from the last war, have nowhere safe to go. Some have been left stranded on the roads with children, elderly relatives, and sick family members, facing harsh conditions or are staying in overcrowded shelters.”
He indicated that the medical needs of the displaced people include access to clean water and sanitation, mental health support and ensuring continuity of care for patients with chronic illnesses.
“Many primary health care centres and pharmacies are overwhelmed with large numbers of patients in need of medications for chronic diseases such as diabetes and heart disease.”
Before 28 February, when the escalation began, MSF had been running three projects in Iran, providing essential healthcare to marginalised people. This included providing 6,000 medical consultations per month, as well as midwifery care, infectious disease screening and treatment, and mental health support.
Although airstrikes have created operational challenges, and despite the communication blackout, MSF said it has so far been able to continue some of these activities.
Oxfam says it and its partners are responding to the immediate needs of people who have been forcibly displaced by Israel’s bombardment and ground invasion of Lebanon, as the conflict across the region enters “a dramatically new and dangerous phase”.
Oxfam Lebanon reports it is “scaling up its emergency response by supporting thousands of people across shelters in Mount Lebanon, the South, and the Bekaa, providing bedding kits, hygiene kits, menstrual hygiene management kits, and clean water.”
“This expansion of Israeli occupation and its bombing of Lebanon will devastate people who had not yet recovered from the last wave of violence, inflicting more trauma on an already traumatised population,” said Lebanon country director Bachir Ayoub. “Once again, families have been forced from their beds and their homes as Israel rained bombs down on their communities.”
Reuters reports aid for Sudan and Gaza has also been held up during the chaos, including tents, tarpaulins and lamps heading for the Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories of Gaza and the West Bank. It quoted the International Organization for Migration saying shipping companies were demanding aid groups pay emergency surcharges of around $US3,000 per container.
As the World Food Program reports its Dubai hub is still operational, although extended shipping routes, increased security negotiations and congestion are making aid transit times longer, increasing the risk that people will wait longer for assistance and face greater food insecurity and likelihood of malnutrition.
The WFP said it and its partner organisations are adapting their supply routes, turning to suppliers and corridors through Türkiye, Egypt, Jordan, and Pakistan, as well as overland routes between the United Arab Emirates and the Levant (Syria, Jordan and parts of Lebanon), where possible.
Australia’s refugee position
While it is too early to know exactly how the regional conflict will affect refugee flow to Australia, the Refugee Council of Australia (RCOA) and its member groups have called on the Foreign Minister Penny Wong to include several hundred Iranian refugees holding Humanitarian XB sub-class visas in the nation’s emergency evacuation plans.
In a letter to the Minister, the council urged the Government to implement a crisis response framework with emergency visa routes for high-risk individuals with family in Australia, as well as support for the Iranian diaspora in Australia.
RCOA CEO Paul Power also said granting protection to Iran’s women soccer players recognises the significant risks they could face if they were forced to return home.
“Australia’s protection system exists for exactly these kinds of situations, to ensure that people who face serious harm if returned to their country have the opportunity to seek safety and have their claims properly considered.”
RCOA is working with UNSW’s Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law, Amnesty International Australia and local refugee communities to develop an Australian framework and predictable protocol for “streamlined, equitable, predictable and effective” ways to assist people in humanitarian crisis find safe, legal pathways to the country.
Croakey has contacted the Foreign Minister and the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade for comment about the government’s position on Iranian and Lebanese refugees and health and medical aid to the region. We will update readers when information is forthcoming.
This article may be updated across the week March 9-15 to reflect the changing situation in the conflict zone
See Croakey’s archive of articles on asylum seeker and refugee health