>The country’s referendum bucks the global authoritarian renaissance and deserves Western support. By Kamran Bokhari , June 5, 2022 4:49 pm ET
>
>Kazakhstan is an exception: a post-Soviet Central Asian state embarking on a path of democratization and liberalization in a region dominated by authoritarian neighbors.
>
>On Sunday the country held a referendum—its first in 27 years—on potential amendments to the constitution. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said the changes, which are projected to pass, according to exit polls, would bring an end to the “super presidential” system and ultimately usher in a “Second Republic.” His predecessor, Nursultan Nazarbayev, held office for almost 30 years.
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>Given today’s global authoritarian renaissance, the U.S. should welcome and encourage this trajectory. Kazakhstan’s prospective transformation is in keeping with Western values. It also is in line with American strategic interests in dealing with Russia and China. Western support of Mr. Tokayev’s reform efforts would enhance Kazakhstan’s stability and promote American interests in a region of strategic importance.
If the referendum passes, it will alter 33 articles that make up more than a third of the national constitution. Changes include reducing the powers of the presidency and removing the mechanisms Mr. Nazarbayev used to exercise power unilaterally. He took office before the Soviet breakup and didn’t relinquish it until 2019. The president will no longer be a member of any political party and will no longer have the authority to overrule the acts of local or regional leaders. The president’s immediate family members would be barred from holding political posts. A constitutional court would be established to safeguard the constitution and check the powers of the presidency. These reforms are only initial steps, Mr. Tokayev said. In an era of world-wide democratic backsliding, when even advanced industrial democracies are grappling with authoritarian tendencies, Kazakh efforts should be appreciated.
The referendum comes within months of a major crisis. In January the country’s political elite experienced an internal struggle while it was dealing with popular unrest and violent protests over rising prices and falling standards of living. The Collective Security Treaty Organization, an alliance of post-Soviet states, sent a Russia-led task force of 2,500 troops to secure key facilities for five days while Kazakh forces quelled the violence. (Russia invaded Ukraine the following month.)
The CSTO task force left Kazakhstan within a week and didn’t engage Kazakh protesters or rioters. Kazakhstan’s leaders appear to have sought Russian assistance to send a message to the old guard that Moscow wouldn’t accept their rebellion and they should back off from the violence.
Mr. Tokayev’s administration understands that the country can no longer afford a glacial pace of change. Kazakhstan’s prosperity, thanks in part to oil and uranium, can’t be sustained without greater public participation in the affairs of state. The only way forward is through reforms that benefit average citizens.
The path from a closed to open political system must be carefully managed. The most dangerous time in any political system occurs during transitions, and at such times young democracies are most at risk. Changes require calibration, planning at home while navigating a perilous strategic environment. Kazakhstan borders Russia on the north and China on the east. Not far to the south are the re-Talibanized Afghanistan, threatening to destabilize Central Asia through terrorist action and refugee flows, and Iran, whose global oil flows and frequent conflicts with the West make it a magnet for geopolitical strife.
The U.S. and Europe must do all they can to ensure that this transition to democratization, which will continue beyond the referendum, succeeds. If it doesn’t, then the heart of Eurasia, which suffered a body blow with the Taliban’s victory, will be further in jeopardy.
If Kazakhstan delivers on its reforms, it can become an American partner capable of ensuring that Eurasia can weather the many storms threatening it.
Lets just hope russia doesnt march in some soldiers like they did to any neighbour that was thinking of not submitting annymore
Any democratic progress is great, moreso when it annoys Russia.
Feels like I’m watching Season 7 of West Wing right now.
I’m not holding my breath. Radical islamists, Russia china and Iran all near them. Yea no way it’ll slide
This is wonderful, I hope the future holds freedom, peace and prosperity for the good people of Kazakhstan.
7 comments
>The country’s referendum bucks the global authoritarian renaissance and deserves Western support. By Kamran Bokhari , June 5, 2022 4:49 pm ET
>
>Kazakhstan is an exception: a post-Soviet Central Asian state embarking on a path of democratization and liberalization in a region dominated by authoritarian neighbors.
>
>On Sunday the country held a referendum—its first in 27 years—on potential amendments to the constitution. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said the changes, which are projected to pass, according to exit polls, would bring an end to the “super presidential” system and ultimately usher in a “Second Republic.” His predecessor, Nursultan Nazarbayev, held office for almost 30 years.
>
>Given today’s global authoritarian renaissance, the U.S. should welcome and encourage this trajectory. Kazakhstan’s prospective transformation is in keeping with Western values. It also is in line with American strategic interests in dealing with Russia and China. Western support of Mr. Tokayev’s reform efforts would enhance Kazakhstan’s stability and promote American interests in a region of strategic importance.
If the referendum passes, it will alter 33 articles that make up more than a third of the national constitution. Changes include reducing the powers of the presidency and removing the mechanisms Mr. Nazarbayev used to exercise power unilaterally. He took office before the Soviet breakup and didn’t relinquish it until 2019. The president will no longer be a member of any political party and will no longer have the authority to overrule the acts of local or regional leaders. The president’s immediate family members would be barred from holding political posts. A constitutional court would be established to safeguard the constitution and check the powers of the presidency. These reforms are only initial steps, Mr. Tokayev said. In an era of world-wide democratic backsliding, when even advanced industrial democracies are grappling with authoritarian tendencies, Kazakh efforts should be appreciated.
The referendum comes within months of a major crisis. In January the country’s political elite experienced an internal struggle while it was dealing with popular unrest and violent protests over rising prices and falling standards of living. The Collective Security Treaty Organization, an alliance of post-Soviet states, sent a Russia-led task force of 2,500 troops to secure key facilities for five days while Kazakh forces quelled the violence. (Russia invaded Ukraine the following month.)
The CSTO task force left Kazakhstan within a week and didn’t engage Kazakh protesters or rioters. Kazakhstan’s leaders appear to have sought Russian assistance to send a message to the old guard that Moscow wouldn’t accept their rebellion and they should back off from the violence.
Mr. Tokayev’s administration understands that the country can no longer afford a glacial pace of change. Kazakhstan’s prosperity, thanks in part to oil and uranium, can’t be sustained without greater public participation in the affairs of state. The only way forward is through reforms that benefit average citizens.
The path from a closed to open political system must be carefully managed. The most dangerous time in any political system occurs during transitions, and at such times young democracies are most at risk. Changes require calibration, planning at home while navigating a perilous strategic environment. Kazakhstan borders Russia on the north and China on the east. Not far to the south are the re-Talibanized Afghanistan, threatening to destabilize Central Asia through terrorist action and refugee flows, and Iran, whose global oil flows and frequent conflicts with the West make it a magnet for geopolitical strife.
The U.S. and Europe must do all they can to ensure that this transition to democratization, which will continue beyond the referendum, succeeds. If it doesn’t, then the heart of Eurasia, which suffered a body blow with the Taliban’s victory, will be further in jeopardy.
If Kazakhstan delivers on its reforms, it can become an American partner capable of ensuring that Eurasia can weather the many storms threatening it.
Lets just hope russia doesnt march in some soldiers like they did to any neighbour that was thinking of not submitting annymore
Any democratic progress is great, moreso when it annoys Russia.
Feels like I’m watching Season 7 of West Wing right now.
I’m not holding my breath. Radical islamists, Russia china and Iran all near them. Yea no way it’ll slide
This is wonderful, I hope the future holds freedom, peace and prosperity for the good people of Kazakhstan.
Very nice