Iceland could become the next member state of the European Union, and the accession negotiations could be finalized in about a year and a half. This is if Icelanders vote to resume discussions in the referendum scheduled for August 29, stated the country’s Foreign Minister, Thorgerdur Katrin Gunnarsdottir.

The Icelandic Foreign Minister said in an interview with Politico that the accession process could progress quickly, as Iceland already implements a large part of European legislation.

“It won’t be so complicated for us, and it could be a rather quick process,” the minister said, referring to potential accession negotiations.

Decisive Referendum in August

On August 29, Iceland will hold a referendum to decide whether to restart the EU accession negotiations, which were abandoned over a decade ago.

A recent Gallup poll indicates a very close competition: 52% of Icelanders support resuming negotiations, while 48% oppose it.

The Foreign Minister, leader of the pro-European Vidreisn party, however, stated that the political decision should not be solely dictated by polls. “Sometimes, you shouldn’t let the polls lead you, but you should lead,” said Thorgerdur Katrin Gunnarsdottir.

Iceland Could Outpace Montenegro

If negotiations are resumed and progress swiftly, Iceland could even become the next country to join the EU, surpassing candidate countries currently more advanced in the process, such as Montenegro.

When asked if this scenario is realistic, the Icelandic minister simply replied, “Yes.”

However, she warned that the main obstacle in negotiations could be fisheries policy, a vital economic sector for Iceland.

Negotiations Initiated During the Financial Crisis

Iceland applied for EU membership in 2009, amid a severe financial crisis that hit the country.

Negotiations were suspended in 2013 after a change in government and due to disputes over fisheries policy. In 2015, Reykjavik officially withdrew its candidacy.

By that time, Iceland had closed 11 of the 33 negotiation chapters – a threshold that Montenegro, considered the most advanced candidate, only recently surpassed.

A recent European official quoted by Politico said that negotiations with Iceland could be completed in just one year if resumed.

Economic and Security Arguments

The Icelandic minister says that the current international context, marked by “geopolitical turbulence,” makes EU accession more attractive to Icelandic society. “It is very important for our companies and industries to provide them with a shelter and protect them within the Union,” she stated.

According to her, Iceland could enjoy significant economic benefits, including reducing inflation and financing costs. “We always have higher inflation and interest rates than other European countries. And there are too many monopolies in the economy,” the minister explained.

At the same time, she believes that the European Union would also benefit from Iceland’s accession, a wealthy country with a strategically important position in the North Atlantic.

Even if Icelanders vote to resume negotiations in August, the process will not automatically conclude: a new referendum will be needed after the negotiations are finalized.

“Through this referendum, we empower the people. It would be beneficial for both Iceland and the European Union to negotiate now, not in two years,” said Thorgerdur Katrin Gunnarsdottir.

The European Union currently has 27 member states, following the official exit of the United Kingdom on January 31, 2020.