A rare quiet has settled over the skies near Taiwan as PLA sorties vanish for nearly two weeks, prompting questions about Beijing’s next moves.

Taipei, Taiwan –

The Taiwanese Armed Forces are accustomed to the daily task of tracking Chinese military aircraft flying near the island. Sometimes their numbers are small; at other times they are much larger. Yet they are almost constantly present in the region.

So when the aircraft suddenly stopped appearing for nearly two weeks, the silence was highly noticeable and deeply unsettled analysts.

This period of silence was broken on Thursday by five aircraft from the People’s Liberation Army of China operating around the Taiwan Strait in the previous 24 hours, several of which approached the median line that divides the waterway.

Analysts say this was the longest lull in air activity since Taiwan began publicly releasing daily data on military activity.

“To be honest, this doesn’t resemble what we’ve seen before regarding PLA activity around Taiwan.”

– Ben Lewis

The longest pause in air activity

Since February 27, Taiwan has recorded 13 consecutive days without Chinese aircraft near the island.

The only brief exception occurred on March 6, when two aircraft were detected in the far southwestern corner of the Taiwan Air Defense Identification Zone, but analysts say the broader picture still points to a noticeable break from the previous years of ongoing growth in military activity.

The sudden silence unsettled analysts and prompted a raft of theories about possible explanations.

One theory is that Beijing may be trying to avoid heightening tensions ahead of a scheduled meeting this month between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump, where, it is expected, trade, technology and Taiwan will be major topics.

“If I were in Las Vegas, I would bet on that Trump visit.”

– Ben Lewis

Others point to the war in Iran and its potential impact on world energy markets, though analysts say the link is less certain.

Some observers also note that China’s annual parliamentary sessions, known as the “Two Sessions,” end this week, a period during which military activity in the past has sometimes slowed.

Taiwan’s defense minister Wellington Koo urged caution in drawing conclusions about the pause, noting that Chinese naval activity around Taiwan has continued throughout the period.

“There are many theories that exist in the world,”

– Wellington Koo

“But we still see Chinese naval vessels operating around Taiwan daily, and these efforts to turn the Taiwan Strait into internal waters of China have not stopped.”

In fact, Taiwan continued to track several Chinese military ships operating near the island throughout the period, while the sky above the island remained exceptionally quiet.

“Compared with previous occasions when the U.S. Navy crossed the Taiwan Strait, today’s number of deployed Chinese aircraft was actually very low,” said Lewis.

These flights occurred on the same day that a U.S. Navy P-8 reconnaissance aircraft passed through the Taiwan Strait, which the 7th Fleet called a demonstration of “support for a free and open Indo-Pacific region,” and the Chinese aircraft may have been deployed simply to monitor the American aircraft.

Even then, the response appeared restrained compared with past incidents when U.S. ships or aircraft traversed this route.

“Compared with previous occasions when the U.S. Navy crossed the Taiwan Strait, today’s number of deployed Chinese aircraft was actually very low.”

– Ben Lewis

This uncertainty is prompting analysts to closely monitor further developments.

Over the past five years, Beijing has significantly increased the number of aircraft approaching Taiwan, gradually normalizing what was once considered serious military incursions.

Sometimes Taiwan reports dozens of Chinese aircraft operating near the island.

In this context, according to Lewis, the sudden disappearance of flights was no less remarkable than their return.

“Five aircraft used to attract headlines,” he added. “Now it’s zero, and that’s unusual.”

For now, the mystery remains unsolved.