The risks of irking Trump are simply too great, said a second EU diplomat from a large country. “We don’t want trade escalation. We want the U.S. involved in Ukraine. We want them involved in NATO. Is it worth risking these objectives in order to be vocal about Iran? So far, not really.”
“Is it worth saying: you stupid fuckers, why did you do it? No, because we will pay a higher price for that,” added the diplomat.
The result is unlikely be a total missed opportunity. Leaders are still set to agree on ambitious deadlines for slashing EU red tape, as well as laying the groundwork for a more integrated European financial market. But their agenda is — once again — being dictated primarily by a leader who resides in Washington, not Europe.
Orbán, again
Oil prices surging past $100 per barrel last week have thrust Europe back into the dark days of 2022 when Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine caused a massive spike in energy prices across the bloc.
Those price spikes, though offset thanks to a huge injection of EU cash, nonetheless helped far-right and far-left political movements, with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán basing his current reelection campaign on the idea that the Ukraine war has been too costly.
Now Orbán is set to seek center stage again: His threat to veto a planned €90 billion EU loan for Ukraine looms as the major unsolved question of the summit, infuriating leaders. Frustration at Budapest is at a fever pitch, according to the senior diplomat, with governments taking on a “much more direct, even confrontational” tone with Budapest behind closed doors, the person said.