Boon argued that focusing on the base rate risks missing what actually drives pricing in much of the market. “Mortgage rates are set independently to the Bank of England’s base rate, unless they are linked to tracker deals,” he pointed out. “Mortgage rates are largely controlled by swap rates, influenced by the wider global financial market.”
That distinction is shaping advice. Boon said his firm is encouraging clients to act early to secure an offer window, particularly for those approaching the end of a fixed term this year. The aim, he said, is to reduce exposure to further repricing if wholesale funding costs move higher.
Product choice, however, is becoming harder to generalise. Boon said that if the conflict proves short-lived, products with low or no early repayment charges could help borrowers refinance quickly if rates fall. If higher inflation persists and rates remain “sticky”, he suggested longer fixes may suit some — but only where they align with borrowers’ plans.
Strutt’s view was that the usual trade-off between certainty and flexibility has become more time-sensitive as pricing shifts. He pointed to the choice between fixing for the right term and using tracker-style flexibility where a move, or a change in circumstances, is likely.
On the broader path of rates, Strutt said the direction still appears down over time, but warned the route may be uneven. “Some private banks are saying the Bank of England is now expected to raise interest rates rather than cut them this year due to a surge in oil prices sparked by the ongoing hostilities between the US, Israel, and Iran,” he stated. “Although it is too soon to tell what is going to happen it will be an interesting few months, that’s for sure.”