Iran war refuels Ukraine conflict? Russian oil flow jumps, Ukrainian war tech crosses over to West Asia – Firstpost

The US‑Israeli war on Iran has handed an unexpected boost to both Russia and Ukraine. While Russia is earning up to $150 million a day from the war‑driven surge in oil prices, Ukraine’s drone‑warfare expertise is now in demand in West Asia, bringing diplomatic and financial gains.

Paradoxically, while the West Asia conflict and resultant crisis have taken the focus off the Russia-Ukraine war, it has also brought the two conflict zones closer.

Since the United States and Israel launched the offensive against Iran,
Russia has reportedly provided intelligence and material support to Iran. On the other hand, West Asian countries under attack have sought Ukraine’s anti-drone systems. After all, Ukraine has been dealing with Iran’s Shahed drones for four years now.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has painted two wars as fundamentally interconnected, flagging early in the war that Russia has used more than 57,000 Shahed-type drones in attacks on Ukraine this year. He went on to slam Iran as “Putin’s accomplice” and offered West Asian countries under attack help.

On its part, Russian economy has got a windfall that could very well be the lifeline that President Vladimir Putin desperately needed —
four years of war have plunged Russian economy into stagflation. Experts have said that Russia could be gaining up to $150 million a day from higher oil prices.

Trump’s war on Iran saves Russian economy

Since the United States and Israel attacked Iran, Russian Ural crude oil has risen to a high of $105.77 from the pre-war $58.9 per barrel.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has deprived the world of up to 20-25 per cent of oil and gas supplies. The shortage has been worsened by
production cuts announced by oil and gas producers in West Asia as their refineries and depots have come under attack.

This has led to a sharp rise in Russian crude’s demand and price. As of Monday, the Brent crude was just $5 costlier than Russian crude.

Russia is supposed to gain $1.6 billion per month from each $10 increase in oil prices, Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, told The New York Times.

This means that Trump’s war is set to hand Russia over $5 billion in the first month of the war.

Russia’s Ural crude oil prices in 2026.

Last week, the Russian finance ministry had reported that its revenues had shrunk by over 10 per cent since January and its budget deficit had already crossed the 90-per cent mark in just three months.

Now, with the war bringing in hundreds of millions of additional dollars every day, Russia’s economy is looking at a revival — thanks to Trump.

Ukraine finds friends with drone expertise

While Russia is getting a windfall from oil revenue, Ukraine is making new friends in West Asia and eyeing business opportunities.

Zelenskyy said that he and his team have received requests from at least 11 countries, such as Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, for help to protect their countries from Iranian drones.

The Times has reported that Ukraine has already sent interceptor drones and teams to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.

Zelenskyy said that more Ukrainian drone experts were on their way to West Asia.

By proving its credentials in West Asia, Ukraine wants to secure security partnerships with West Asian countries and impress upon the Trump administration that a partnership with Ukraine was a two-way street where the United States would also make gains.

Ukraine is also exploring commercial deals in West Asia by demonstrating its drone-specific air defence capabilities.

While no deals have been announced yet, the market for drone defenses for oil fields and tankers could get Ukraine billions, The Times reported Ukrainian executives as saying.