A complementary survey showed some decline among U.S. consumers to “buy American,” citing still higher prices for U.S. manufactured products.

With respect to U.S. manufacturing employment, comparing the end of 2025 to the end of 2024, manufacturing jobs dropped by 108,000 workers. Although this was a modest decline of less than 1%, the trend was still opposite of what tariff supporters expected. Manufacturing output also changed little from 2024 to 2025.

What has happened to foreign investment in the U.S. between 2024 and 2025? While we don’t have the fourth-quarter numbers for 2025 yet, comparing the investment numbers for the first, second and third quarters shows a 6% decline from 2024 to 2025.

Lastly, regarding trade deals, a number of new trade agreements have been completed between the U.S. and other countries. Yet, some uncertainty about their durability remains. For example, recently the U.S. and the European Union have both moved to break their deal over complaints about new tariffs.

Hence, the numbers don’t yet support the expectations of tariff supporters. Of course, it may be too early to render a judgment due to the fact that investment decisions like building factories are a big commitment, one that likely requires the decision-makers to take their time.

Looking ahead, my expectation is tariffs will continue to be a major factor in the economy during 2026. Right now, tariffs are creating uncertainty among business decision-makers because it is not exactly known what the administration will do after the Supreme Court decision. Especially confusing is the fact that some of the new tariffs being considered are temporary. Also, there may be more tariff cases taken to the Supreme Court. All of this uncertainty means tariffs may be one of the factors behind the slow pace of hiring.

With affordability being a top issue in the country, some speculate the administration may take a narrower approach with tariffs in 2026. Tariffs have increased the prices of several important consumer items, including some foods, electronics, toys, clothing and inputs for home building. There is some thought the administration may omit these products from tariffs, or at least have a lower tariff imposed on them.

I see three conclusions from this discussion. First, tariffs will likely remain. Second, the record for tariffs accomplishing their goals is mixed. And third, we may see some significant changes in how tariffs are applied in 2026. Do you agree? You decide.

Mike Walden is a William Neal Reynolds distinguished professor emeritus at North Carolina State University.