Britain isn’t working. I am not just harking back to Margaret Thatcher’s 1979 election campaign — which preyed on voters’ fears of unemployment. The slogan now describes the most urgent problem facing the UK economy.
It is not obvious that the country has a jobs issue when unemployment is almost at a 50-year trough, but these official figures tell only part of the story. Unemployment might be historically low, but that does not mean employment is high. The number of people in work or self employed is still 500,000 lower than the pre-pandemic level with roughly 900,000 fewer working today than the Bank of England expected in forecasts made just before coronavirus struck.
Andrew Bailey this week blamed the shrinking labour force for the persistence of price and wage increases as well as the difficulties he, as Bank of England governor, is having in bringing inflation back down. Fewer workers tightens the labour market. It also encourages companies to raise prices without fear of bankruptcy and to concede to inevitable and justified pay demands.
What is most worrying is that this is a UK-specific problem. Now that the US has managed to encourage workers back into jobs, the UK has the most persistent post-pandemic drop in employment of any G7 country. And as Tony Wilson, director of the Institute for Employment Studies, notes, Britain also performs poorly among the countries that went into the pandemic with a high employment rate.
Two questions need answering. Why have the numbers of people in work fallen since 2019 when unemployment is so low? And why has the workforce stopped growing?
The initial question is relatively straightforward. One new problem over the past year has been that the UK now has many more people, especially women, off work and long-term sick. Looking at the data, Michael Saunders, an external member of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee blamed(opens a new window) the “side effects of the pandemic, for example long Covid and the rise in NHS waiting lists”. This new and UK-specific long-term sickness problem casts a dark shadow over both the government’s management of the pandemic and NHS performance, since it was given as much money as other advanced economy health services.
The other new problem category is older professional men(opens a new window) aged between 50 and 70. For full disclosure, this includes me. No one should ever feel too sorry for people that have done well in the labour market since the 1980s, but the steep decline in participation suggests that economists, companies and governments can no longer take it for granted that older men with degrees will stay working, no matter what. If we are choosing to do something else, others in society should not mind too much, except for the difficult fact older professional men tend to be higher paid and significant net contributors to the public finances.
It would normally be more difficult to have a clear sense of the sort of people that would have expanded the labour force but have not sought work in Britain. But this time, coronavirus coincided with the end of free movement of workers from the EU and a drop in European immigration, contrasting with sharp increases seen before the Brexit referendum. Leaving the EU has therefore destroyed the UK labour market’s safety valve, leaving it less flexible and able to suck in foreign-born employees when demand is high. They now need to secure visas and many have gone elsewhere.
So, there you have it. Britain isn’t working and this is causing higher inflation, lower growth and worse public finances. Some can’t get out of bed, some can’t be bothered any longer and some can’t work here because Brexit forces them to get a visa. None of this bodes well.
I think underemployment was strangly missed out, where people just can’t get the hours.
It was the main scam the Conservatives came up with after all.
Another Anti Brexit article from the FT
There are many people who have abandoned their previous careers since the pandemic, either by necessity or simply looking for a change, some of whom are attempting some form of self employment or entrepreneurship. If the government had some foresight they would provide more proactive support for people in that situation to stimulate new businesses which in the longer term will generate jobs. It feels like Britain could be missing out on an opportunity for a wave of innovation, which was one of the implied promises of Brexiteers.
This article doesn’t really say a lot, but it seems to be that older workers have decided to retire early. I don’t see how that’s a problem unless you think we should work until we drop.
I’m convinced that is meant to be the point under the Tories. You will have people so poor that they will do anything to just be a bit less poor; those who are just hovering above the edge, who will do anything to not be at the bottom; those who think they are middle class and vote Tory accordingly, screwing themselves over in the process; and those who will actually benefit from Tory policy.
It should concern us all but people in the UK will not protest and so power and wealth remains in the hands of a few people who do not care for us at all. There is also a sense of resignation and that nothing will ever change, even though we rarely ever try to effect change in politics. Britain could work but not until the people try to make it work for them.
Talking Britain down?
Or it’s working as it’s financial backers intended.
Britain isn’t working because we’ve spent far too long pretending we can live high on the hog using the resources of other areas of the world.
There is still an imperial attitude amongst the elites of the UK. They don’t have to invest in new processes and production, they don’t have to do actual capitalism rather than playing ‘antiques roadshow’ with their property portfolios. All they have to do is import food, power and people from abroad on a promise and the entire dog and pony show can carry on.
The rest of the world is starting to realise that they are not getting anything material by piling up financial promises from the UK, the USA and Europe. Before long they will stop sending us stuff, and keep it for their own populations instead. Or exchange it for real things with other areas of the world that actually produce stuff their populations are demanding.
We need fewer better quality jobs that fits with the available workforce, and an intensive programme of investment in technology – starting with a Dutch revolution in agriculture, and a genuine Green revolution in energy production.
All of which requires a government with an industrial strategy.
That poster really pisses me off. In 1979 the unemployment rate was 5 – 5.5% and dropping. The Tories get in and in 3 years its at 10% and rising. The Tories always fuck up the country.
The whole “lowest unemployment levels” BS ticks me off. The whole zero hours contracts thing is just figure massaging to the umpteenth degree. 3-4 people can literally be sharing 1 job meaning 4 people are underpaid rather than just 1 person being paid a fair wage. Especially in retail, it’s become so terrible I know family and friends who are begging and crying for stores to give them more hours but the store needs to at least give each of them a minimum amount of hours which ties their hands. This restricts the jobs they can apply for due to “lack of experience” and they are stuck scrounging for retail work. It’s terrible and yet the govt brags about their low unemployment levels while never admitting thats why a lot of people are relying on foodbanks and living below the breadline. It’s disgusting and disingenuous.
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[Archive link](https://archive.ph/dhjuv)
Article text (by Chris Giles):
Britain isn’t working. I am not just harking back to Margaret Thatcher’s 1979 election campaign — which preyed on voters’ fears of unemployment. The slogan now describes the most urgent problem facing the UK economy.
It is not obvious that the country has a jobs issue when unemployment is almost at a 50-year trough, but these official figures tell only part of the story. Unemployment might be historically low, but that does not mean employment is high. The number of people in work or self employed is still 500,000 lower than the pre-pandemic level with roughly 900,000 fewer working today than the Bank of England expected in forecasts made just before coronavirus struck.
Andrew Bailey this week blamed the shrinking labour force for the persistence of price and wage increases as well as the difficulties he, as Bank of England governor, is having in bringing inflation back down. Fewer workers tightens the labour market. It also encourages companies to raise prices without fear of bankruptcy and to concede to inevitable and justified pay demands.
What is most worrying is that this is a UK-specific problem. Now that the US has managed to encourage workers back into jobs, the UK has the most persistent post-pandemic drop in employment of any G7 country. And as Tony Wilson, director of the Institute for Employment Studies, notes, Britain also performs poorly among the countries that went into the pandemic with a high employment rate.
Two questions need answering. Why have the numbers of people in work fallen since 2019 when unemployment is so low? And why has the workforce stopped growing?
The initial question is relatively straightforward. One new problem over the past year has been that the UK now has many more people, especially women, off work and long-term sick. Looking at the data, Michael Saunders, an external member of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee blamed(opens a new window) the “side effects of the pandemic, for example long Covid and the rise in NHS waiting lists”. This new and UK-specific long-term sickness problem casts a dark shadow over both the government’s management of the pandemic and NHS performance, since it was given as much money as other advanced economy health services.
The other new problem category is older professional men(opens a new window) aged between 50 and 70. For full disclosure, this includes me. No one should ever feel too sorry for people that have done well in the labour market since the 1980s, but the steep decline in participation suggests that economists, companies and governments can no longer take it for granted that older men with degrees will stay working, no matter what. If we are choosing to do something else, others in society should not mind too much, except for the difficult fact older professional men tend to be higher paid and significant net contributors to the public finances.
It would normally be more difficult to have a clear sense of the sort of people that would have expanded the labour force but have not sought work in Britain. But this time, coronavirus coincided with the end of free movement of workers from the EU and a drop in European immigration, contrasting with sharp increases seen before the Brexit referendum. Leaving the EU has therefore destroyed the UK labour market’s safety valve, leaving it less flexible and able to suck in foreign-born employees when demand is high. They now need to secure visas and many have gone elsewhere.
So, there you have it. Britain isn’t working and this is causing higher inflation, lower growth and worse public finances. Some can’t get out of bed, some can’t be bothered any longer and some can’t work here because Brexit forces them to get a visa. None of this bodes well.
I think underemployment was strangly missed out, where people just can’t get the hours.
It was the main scam the Conservatives came up with after all.
Another Anti Brexit article from the FT
There are many people who have abandoned their previous careers since the pandemic, either by necessity or simply looking for a change, some of whom are attempting some form of self employment or entrepreneurship. If the government had some foresight they would provide more proactive support for people in that situation to stimulate new businesses which in the longer term will generate jobs. It feels like Britain could be missing out on an opportunity for a wave of innovation, which was one of the implied promises of Brexiteers.
This article doesn’t really say a lot, but it seems to be that older workers have decided to retire early. I don’t see how that’s a problem unless you think we should work until we drop.
I’m convinced that is meant to be the point under the Tories. You will have people so poor that they will do anything to just be a bit less poor; those who are just hovering above the edge, who will do anything to not be at the bottom; those who think they are middle class and vote Tory accordingly, screwing themselves over in the process; and those who will actually benefit from Tory policy.
It should concern us all but people in the UK will not protest and so power and wealth remains in the hands of a few people who do not care for us at all. There is also a sense of resignation and that nothing will ever change, even though we rarely ever try to effect change in politics. Britain could work but not until the people try to make it work for them.
Talking Britain down?
Or it’s working as it’s financial backers intended.
Britain isn’t working because we’ve spent far too long pretending we can live high on the hog using the resources of other areas of the world.
There is still an imperial attitude amongst the elites of the UK. They don’t have to invest in new processes and production, they don’t have to do actual capitalism rather than playing ‘antiques roadshow’ with their property portfolios. All they have to do is import food, power and people from abroad on a promise and the entire dog and pony show can carry on.
The rest of the world is starting to realise that they are not getting anything material by piling up financial promises from the UK, the USA and Europe. Before long they will stop sending us stuff, and keep it for their own populations instead. Or exchange it for real things with other areas of the world that actually produce stuff their populations are demanding.
We need fewer better quality jobs that fits with the available workforce, and an intensive programme of investment in technology – starting with a Dutch revolution in agriculture, and a genuine Green revolution in energy production.
All of which requires a government with an industrial strategy.
That poster really pisses me off. In 1979 the unemployment rate was 5 – 5.5% and dropping. The Tories get in and in 3 years its at 10% and rising. The Tories always fuck up the country.
The whole “lowest unemployment levels” BS ticks me off. The whole zero hours contracts thing is just figure massaging to the umpteenth degree. 3-4 people can literally be sharing 1 job meaning 4 people are underpaid rather than just 1 person being paid a fair wage. Especially in retail, it’s become so terrible I know family and friends who are begging and crying for stores to give them more hours but the store needs to at least give each of them a minimum amount of hours which ties their hands. This restricts the jobs they can apply for due to “lack of experience” and they are stuck scrounging for retail work. It’s terrible and yet the govt brags about their low unemployment levels while never admitting thats why a lot of people are relying on foodbanks and living below the breadline. It’s disgusting and disingenuous.