Critics of Donald Trump saw the funny flap over his gifting black Oxford shoes to some of his administration members — and these men dutifully wearing them, whether they fit or not — as one more episode of sickening sycophancy. But the gesture may have deeper meaning: Which Republican will fill his shoes as the party’s leader and presidential nominee?
The question points to the quiet rivalry between Vice President JD Vance, 41, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, 54. Both are plausible contenders for the 2028 nomination. While Vance is currently the front-runner and may ultimately sew it up with Trump’s endorsement, Rubio could prove the better bet for the Republican Party.
Rubio is a smart, pragmatic conservative not hobbled by ideological rigidity — a former local official, state legislator, Florida House speaker and U.S. senator. He’s the nation’s highest-ranking Hispanic American official, a notable asset for a party that struggles to broaden its Latino appeal.
Ron Faucheux
Rubio has broader, deeper experience than Vance and would better bridge political gaps. He can speak to MAGA voters, traditional Republicans and independents — a balancing act similar to the one Ronald Reagan mastered with blue-collar conservatives and Country Club Republicans.
Vance is no slouch as a candidate, but his range is narrower; he’s more hemmed in by MAGA and its demands. His personal strengths are less relevant to the presidency than Rubio’s.
The first question that must be asked is: Will Trump have the power to pick the next GOP nominee?
The answer is likely yes. Much depends on events, as is always the case. But it’s unrealistic to expect party leaders and donors to defy the president.
A worsening economy and unresolved foreign conflicts would surely complicate a Trump endorsement and make it toxic in the general election. The latest Economist/YouGov poll finds that 55% of all voters have an unfavorable view of the president. But if Trump’s base holds up — the same poll shows an overwhelming 89% of Republicans remain in his corner — he could still sway the party’s presidential nomination.
Despite podcasters and pundits saying MAGA Republicans are split on his handling of the situation in Iran, this poll shows 87% of them support it.
The next question is whether Trump will publicly pick a successor. That seems highly probable. He could back a favorite candidate or bless a couple of contenders (Vance and Rubio?) while freezing out others.
When Trump put Vance on the 2024 ticket, the young, bearded Ohio senator was seen as heir apparent. Since then, Vance has worked to solidify that status, especially among MAGA true believers.
A new Echelon Insights poll has Vance running far ahead among primary voters with 40% support, compared with 16% for Rubio, 9% for Donald Trump Jr., 5% for each Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley and a combined 9% for other candidates, with the rest undecided. The Economist/YouGov survey shows Vance is more popular among all Republicans (79% vs. 62%) and MAGA supporters (84% vs. 70%) than is Rubio.
But Trump’s loyalties run hot and cold, and that’s making Vance sweat.
Ask Mike Pence. He went from Trump loyalist to traitor in a single day.
Could the same thing happen to Vance? Of course. All it would take is a perceived weakness or the slightest whiff of disloyalty.
Trump made Vance a senator in 2022 by backing him in a difficult primary fight and then, two years later, handed him the vice presidency. Vance owes Trump everything and Trump owes Vance nothing.
Trump reportedly has been asking friends whom they’d prefer, Vance or Rubio. That suggests he remains open to either one.
Trump respects Rubio’s talents. Appointing Rubio secretary of state — and then piling on three additional jobs, as national security adviser, archivist of the United States and head of USAID — says a lot. At some point, Trump could decide Rubio is more electable and would be the better president.
Could Vance and Rubio end up on the same ticket? Trump has already floated that solution and knows Republican donors would love it. But whether either man would accept the No. 2 slot is unknown.
Trump may change his mind a hundred times between now and 2028. Events could ultimately decide what he does. But remember: More than anyone else, he will be able to shape those events.