The Grand Duchy’s grand exaggeration: time to address the divorce myth

One of the Luxembourg Times’ better-read articles in the past month-or-so was all about divorce. More specifically, it was an interview with a respected lawyer about some of the factors that contribute to divorce, and tips and advice for those affected by its upheaval. The inspiration behind the article was news that Luxembourg has the world’s second-highest divorce rate.

The article in question, originally written by our sister publication Virgule, was interesting and full of good advice, but I was struck by one fact: it didn’t address the statistic itself. So, I reached out to the interviewee, lawyer Marc Lentz, for clarification. “The statistics you refer to do not come from me and are not known to me,” was his honest response.

Turns out, the statistic was reported by RTL in December: Luxembourg has the world’s second-highest divorce rate, behind…checks notes…Portugal!

I smell a big, ripe rat.

So I checked the article further, and aside from clarifying that the figure is “based on the divorce rate: the number of divorces relative to the number of marriages recorded in the same year,” it did not clearly state its source. RTL did write, however, that the method it used “is often more revealing than the crude rate – divorces per 1,000 inhabitants – which tends to place countries such as Russia, Belarus, or the United States at the top,”

I decided to check with Statec and Eurostat if the numbers came from them. “Nope,” they both said in reply.

From a personal (and therefore unscientific) perspective, I’d say Luxembourg feels quite marriage-friendly. It’s certainly family-friendly. Pleasant natural surroundings, high salaries, good work-life balance – and even the high property/rent prices – would all seem to support staying together.

Decoding the numbers

So where does the 66% divorce rate – that for every 100 weddings, there are 66 divorces – come from?

National statistics bureau Statec gave me a big possible clue in our emailed discussion on the topic: “Our statistics consider divorces that occurred in Luxembourg, regardless of whether the marriage took place in Luxembourg or not,” they said. “If two residents marry abroad, they are not included in our marriage statistics. However, if they divorce and still live in Luxembourg, they will be included in our divorce statistics.”

In a country that’s half made up of immigrants, that’s a major, major caveat. Especially when most couples – whether expats or native – would probably find it cheaper to tie the knot in a different country.

What this means is that (hypothetically) if half of Luxembourg-based couples wishing to marry did so in Belgium, for financial reasons, but all who wished to divorce did so in Luxembourg, the country’s divorce rate would look worse. And, conversely, Belgium would receive an undeserved statistical boost towards the moral high ground as its marriages to divorces rate would rise.

The Europe-wide statistics agency, Eurostat, which just happens to be based in Luxembourg (ed. staffed by a healthy mix of single, married, divorced and widowed people from all over Europe) suggested that a more accurate statistic might be the total divorce rate, “i.e. the mean number of divorces per marriage in a given year. This would be computed by adding the divorce rates by duration of marriage for the year in question; it is the divorce rate of a hypothetical generation subjected at each age to the current marriage conditions,” a spokesperson wrote, before adding: “Unfortunately, this indicator is not calculated at the moment.”

What about other stats?

The main thing I took from this whole exercise is that small countries – and especially Luxembourg – need to approach statistics carefully.

Are we really one of the richest countries in the world? The crude statistics like average salary or GDP per-capita say yes, but the presence of a handful of mega-rich people and the fat financial sector don’t change the evidence of my own eyes – or wallet. With much more modest median incomes and the high cost of living, this is a country that makes many people feel poor.

Everywhere you look there are dodgy stats, in fact: at over 700 kg per year, Luxembourg throws away about 200 kg more rubbish per person than the EU average. Why? Because the litter of 230,000 cross border workers is attributed to the country’s 690,000 residents. As a resident who lives by ‘reduce, reuse, recycle’, that one stings a bit!

As does being told that Luxembourg exhausts its annual sustainable quota of resources earlier each year than anywhere other than Qatar. This time it’s partly because 690,000 residents are taking responsibility for all of Cargolux’s emissions as it imports and exports goods…for the entire continent.

In closing: explanation is not the same as excuse.

There is much about Luxembourg that probably does support the statistics. A significantly transient, international, high earning and hardworking (i.e. stressed-out) population most likely does result in a fair few divorces. And the fact that high-end retailers and airlines love us does mean we are guilty of overconsumption.

But are we as consistently the worst (or best) in the world at so many things as the stats suggest? The jury is still very much out.

(By the way, there is also strong evidence to suggest that Portugal does not have the world’s highest divorce rate after all. One of several explaining factors was that divorces were processed as normal during the pandemic, but weddings were not. By 2023, the rate had returned to well below its long-term average.)