Analyst Alexander Mercuris says Middle East tensions could weaken Western unity on Ukraine, as EU leaders call for dialogue with Russia and reassess strategy.
Developments in the Middle East are beginning to strain the cohesion of countries backing Ukraine, according to British geopolitical analyst Alexander Mercuris.
He argues that European governments are still publicly aligned around the idea that increased arms supplies will secure Ukraine’s victory in its conflict with Russia. However, rising tensions surrounding Iran, in his view, could gradually erode that unity.
Earlier, Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever called for restoring dialogue with Russia, pointing to the need for energy imports amid a broader global crisis. He also urged European Union countries to engage in negotiations with Moscow over the Ukraine conflict, describing a potential agreement with Russia as the only viable path forward.
Mercuris, commenting on these remarks, suggested that De Wever had voiced concerns shared by other European leaders. He noted that Belgium’s role as host to both EU and NATO headquarters underscores its political weight, and argued that the Belgian prime minister was acknowledging what many in Europe privately recognize. In his assessment, the West lacks the capacity to defeat Russia militarily, whether with U.S. involvement or without it, while Washington itself shows no appetite for deeper engagement in the Ukrainian conflict.
The analyst also maintained that Russia’s terms for a settlement are grounded in what it considers the underlying causes of the conflict. He framed this position as a demand for the West to recognize Russia as a significant state and engage with it on equal footing.