Cases are not the problem, it is deaths that will be.
If the vaccines work, no one should be worried.
[deleted]
Wow, that’s quite a lot. Probably not enough to warrant another lockdown or whatever, but I am surprised it’s got to this number as quickly as it has.
I wonder what Germany is doing ‘wrong’.
We (UK) unlocked, and we’ve bumped between 30-50k cases a day for months now. The line is basically flat, albeit high. There was no exponential trajectory like Germany seems to be on.
We actually had our exponential trajectory *just before* unlocking everything. Unlocking actually brought the numbers down from our peak.
Then we cruised.
But we never got close to 65,371 cases, even though we’ve consistently done more testing than Germany does.
So yeah, this is a bit strange.
Two possible reasons come to mind:
* Vaccine mix. The UK and Germanys vaccine mix is very different. We went in big on AZ, Germany went in big on Pfizer. Could there be something there?
* We unlocked in the summer completely, allowing lots of people to get infected and natural antibodies that way. At an average of about 30k a day for months on end, that’s like 3.6 million extra people with antibodies. Many of which are children who can’t get the vaccine.
COVID is so weird. It’s almost like there’s no reasoning with it, and it just mostly does what it wants to do.
Potentially, doing nothing (much like we did at this stage) might see numbers come back down on their own. The fear here is that Germany will introduce some restrictions, the cases will fall as they were going to do regardless, and then the government will think they’re to thank for their measures which makes them more likely to use them next time.
While we have so many comments from the UK in this discussion. I very much appreciate your concerns.
Let’s get the numbers into perspective:
Since Summer, the UK has had about 200k to 300k cases a week. In the same time, those numbers for Germany where about 25% (30k-100k) of that (in absolute numbers, remember that there are more people living there). The first time it went above 100k was in Oct. Now there are 280k a week, so that what Britain has seen all the last 4 months.
And, at the same time, in the UK died about 1000 people a week, in Germany half that number. (Again, while having 15 mio more inhabitants.)
In total 9.7 mio cases in the UK, vs. 5.2 mio in Germany. (140k vs. 100k death.)
It’s hard to tell at the moment, how those numbers in Germany will go. My feeling is, that Autumn is not the best time to have those numbers spiking.
So the British way of “letting the virus go rampant” in summer might turn out to be strategically better. (Although 40k will probably not agree.)
Ask in 8 weeks how it went…
Cases don’t matter. Time to get rid of all restrictions and get on with life
I have come to a point where I actually stop caring about the numbers or people dying from this. Germany has fucked its own health system for years and years, and now the 20ish % of people who did not get the shot are being blamed for the govermnemt imposing restrictions to the point where some places start segregating people, and politicians pull out the worst rethoric I have ever heard.
That country is such a joke. “State failiure” and “Germany” might as well become synonyms.
7 comments
And still we want to end the epidemic state
Cases are not the problem, it is deaths that will be.
If the vaccines work, no one should be worried.
[deleted]
Wow, that’s quite a lot. Probably not enough to warrant another lockdown or whatever, but I am surprised it’s got to this number as quickly as it has.
I wonder what Germany is doing ‘wrong’.
We (UK) unlocked, and we’ve bumped between 30-50k cases a day for months now. The line is basically flat, albeit high. There was no exponential trajectory like Germany seems to be on.
We actually had our exponential trajectory *just before* unlocking everything. Unlocking actually brought the numbers down from our peak.
Then we cruised.
But we never got close to 65,371 cases, even though we’ve consistently done more testing than Germany does.
So yeah, this is a bit strange.
Two possible reasons come to mind:
* Vaccine mix. The UK and Germanys vaccine mix is very different. We went in big on AZ, Germany went in big on Pfizer. Could there be something there?
* We unlocked in the summer completely, allowing lots of people to get infected and natural antibodies that way. At an average of about 30k a day for months on end, that’s like 3.6 million extra people with antibodies. Many of which are children who can’t get the vaccine.
COVID is so weird. It’s almost like there’s no reasoning with it, and it just mostly does what it wants to do.
Potentially, doing nothing (much like we did at this stage) might see numbers come back down on their own. The fear here is that Germany will introduce some restrictions, the cases will fall as they were going to do regardless, and then the government will think they’re to thank for their measures which makes them more likely to use them next time.
While we have so many comments from the UK in this discussion. I very much appreciate your concerns.
Let’s get the numbers into perspective:
Since Summer, the UK has had about 200k to 300k cases a week. In the same time, those numbers for Germany where about 25% (30k-100k) of that (in absolute numbers, remember that there are more people living there). The first time it went above 100k was in Oct. Now there are 280k a week, so that what Britain has seen all the last 4 months.
And, at the same time, in the UK died about 1000 people a week, in Germany half that number. (Again, while having 15 mio more inhabitants.)
In total 9.7 mio cases in the UK, vs. 5.2 mio in Germany. (140k vs. 100k death.)
It’s hard to tell at the moment, how those numbers in Germany will go. My feeling is, that Autumn is not the best time to have those numbers spiking.
So the British way of “letting the virus go rampant” in summer might turn out to be strategically better. (Although 40k will probably not agree.)
Ask in 8 weeks how it went…
Cases don’t matter. Time to get rid of all restrictions and get on with life
I have come to a point where I actually stop caring about the numbers or people dying from this. Germany has fucked its own health system for years and years, and now the 20ish % of people who did not get the shot are being blamed for the govermnemt imposing restrictions to the point where some places start segregating people, and politicians pull out the worst rethoric I have ever heard.
That country is such a joke. “State failiure” and “Germany” might as well become synonyms.