As geopolitical tensions reshape the Americas’ business landscape, far too often leaders attempt to anticipate what’s next based on national elections, trade policy and U.S. foreign relations.

But according to Adam Ratzlaff, founder and CEO of Pan-American Strategic Advisors, that’s not where companies should be looking first.

“Don’t just look at who the president is, but what are the subnational regulators that you engage with?” said Ratzlaff, a PhD candidate in international relations at Florida International University.

For companies in BPO, tech and customer experience operations, that distinction is becoming increasingly important. While national politics may dominate headlines, the day-to-day reality of operating in Latin America is often shaped at the local level.

“Presidents change, but having those deeper relationships is critical to ensuring that those businesses are able to operate into the future,” he said.

Adam Ratzlaff is CEO and Founder of Pan-American Strategic Advisors.

Here are the five takeaways that every business executive must be aware of when it comes to the potential for geopolitical instability to affect operations.

Local Strategy Becomes Advantage

That shift in focus reflects a broader change in how companies must approach nearshore expansion. In an environment where political cycles are volatile, building relationships with local governments, regulators and communities can provide a level of stability that national policy cannot.

It’s also how other global players are approaching the region.

“We’ve seen China do this, where they engage with state government, local government,” Ratzlaff said.

For nearshore executives, that creates both a roadmap and a warning. Companies that rely solely on national-level alignment risk being exposed when political winds shift.

Instead, success increasingly depends on embedding operations within local ecosystems.

Geopolitical Complexity

That need for a localized approach comes as the broader geopolitical landscape grows more complex.

Ratzlaff points to a renewed U.S. focus on the Western Hemisphere as one of the defining shifts shaping the region.

“I would say there’s definitely a renewed focus. The Americas have taken the largest role of what our policy should be,” he said.

That focus is being driven by a combination of factors, including supply chain security, migration and regional stability.

“There’s been a bipartisan consensus over the past 10 years to secure supply chains, to strengthen supply chains and to ensure access to key resources,” Ratzlaff said. “The big focus now is on countering cartels and rising violence in the region.”

For companies operating in nearshore, that means geopolitical considerations are no longer abstract. They are directly influencing operating environments, investment decisions and risk profiles.

Stay Away from Political Cycles

One of the key challenges for businesses is the region’s cyclical political landscape, which can lead to rapid policy shifts even in markets that appear stable in the short term.

“Latin American politics have traditionally been a pendulum between left and right,” Ratzlaff said. “There is a question here about how long that lasts,” he said.

In some cases, external pressure — particularly from the United States — can amplify those swings.

Ratzlaff said U.S. involvement in Latin America has brought short-term success in shaping Latin American policy, but there is potential for this intervention to provoke backlash over the long term.

That risk is particularly relevant for companies making long-term investments, where changes in public sentiment or political alignment can alter the operating environment.

He likened the situation to recent changes in the Canadian political realm. Many Canadians initially seemed sympathetic to much of President Donald Trump’s platform until rhetoric about the northern neighbor becoming the 51st state quickly shifted sentiment in the opposite direction.

The China Factor

Complicating the picture further is China’s expanding role in Latin America, which continues to reshape economic and strategic dynamics.

“China has increased its economic footprint in Latin America exponentially,” Ratzlaff said.

Much of that growth has been driven by investment in infrastructure and access to natural resources — areas where regional demand has long outpaced supply.

For businesses, this has created both opportunity and risk. Chinese investment has helped develop critical infrastructure, but it has also raised concerns around security and strategic dependence.

“There are some concerns with 5G technology, access to critical minerals and port infrastructure,” he said.

At the same time, Ratzlaff notes that some U.S. concerns may overlook a key reality — China often stepped in where others did not.

Long-Term Strategy Goals

Against that backdrop, Ratzlaff emphasizes that companies need to take a long-term view of their investments in the region.

“Companies should be looking at where they can make investments that are long-term. Those are the ones that are going to be the most beneficial,” he said.

That includes focusing on markets with stable institutions and consistent alignment with U.S. interests.

“Relationships with countries that have good rule of law and democratic tradition and have a history of aligning with the United States on key issues. China is able to think long-term. For companies, it’s about where investments will be able to last,” he said.

It also requires understanding that geopolitical competition — particularly between the U.S. and China — will continue to shape the region’s trajectory.

Taken together, these trends point to a fundamental shift in how nearshore decisions are made.

Cost and talent remain important, but they are no longer sufficient on their own. Companies must now factor in political cycles, geopolitical competition and local-level dynamics.

And increasingly, the difference between success and failure may come down to where — and how — those relationships are built.

For nearshore executives, Ratzlaff said the message is clear that understanding a country is no longer enough. Understanding the cities, regulators and local networks may matter even more.