Ukraine may be able to keep the state running for a few more months, but the margin for error is narrowing as a major EU loan remains blocked and officials in Brussels appear to be betting on political change in Hungary rather than an immediate workaround.
Jakub Kapiszewski, TVP World’s business editor, told the News in Depth program that Ukraine’s public finances remain heavily dependent on outside help, with “40% of the money that Ukraine’s finance minister has at its disposal” coming from foreign aid.
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He argued that, in practice, the date by which Kyiv “runs out of money” keeps shifting because governments can reshuffle spending internally and delaying cuts in some areas to safeguard more urgent needs.
Waiting out Orbán
That flexibility, however, only goes so far. Kapiszewski said that for a country at war, non-military spending would likely be the first target if the fiscal pressure intensifies, with pensions, social benefits, education and healthcare all potentially vulnerable as Kyiv prioritizes defense, which he said accounts for 60 percent of state outlays.
The immediate political problem is Hungary. A blocked EU loan has become part of a broader standoff over support for Ukraine, with uncertainty hanging over whether Viktor Orbán’s resistance is a negotiating tactic linked to the Hungarian election campaign or a longer-term obstacle.
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Kapiszewski said the working assumption in Brussels appears to be that Ukraine can hold on until after Hungary’s April 12 parliamentary election, when a different government in Budapest could potentially take a less confrontational line.
That remains a gamble, however, because it depends both on Orbán losing and on opposition leader Péter Magyar following through with a more cooperative approach.
Pressure on both sides
Kapiszewski pointed to other sources of support still reaching Kyiv, including aid already disbursed this year and expected assistance from Japan and the IMF. That trickle of funding, he suggested, helps explain why some EU capitals have been reluctant to unveil a full “plan B” while the Hungarian issue remains unresolved.
The wider risk is political, Kapiszewski argued. If support for Ukraine becomes more costly domestically, he said, leaders elsewhere may also be tempted to turn it into campaign material.
Kapiszewski pointed out that Orbán has amplified the issue at a time when Hungary’s economy is no longer delivering the political dividends it once did.
The interview also turned to Russia, where reports that Vladimir Putin has discussed tapping wealthy insiders for more war funding have raised questions about strain on the Kremlin’s budget. Kapiszewski said Russia is under pressure, but not yet in fiscal free fall. Higher oil prices have recently boosted Moscow’s revenues, he highlighted.
For Ukraine, though, the more urgent question is simpler: whether partners can keep money flowing fast enough to stop financial pressure from becoming strategic pressure at the negotiating table, Kapiszewski said.
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