Key points from Dmitry Peskov’s statements at one of his regular morning press conferences: “Russian intelligence services are closely monitoring all circumstances surrounding the launch of Ukrainian drones.” According to the Kremlin spokesman, “Kiev could blindly use EU and NATO countries for its own criminal interests; the Kiev regime is known for its attempts to blackmail EU countries by using oil pipelines as a weapon; the absolute silence from Brussels following Kiev’s attacks on several EU countries and the lack of attempts to protect them are disconcerting.” He is referring to the recent arrival of Ukrainian suicide drones in Estonia and Latvia.

But that’s not all. Peskov harshly criticized the Ukrainian leader: “Zelensky’s remarks about the need to prepare for several years of conflict with Russia are inconsistent with his statements about the desire for peace; Russia continues its strategic military operations to minimize Kiev’s potential for continued terrorist activity; Russia has not lost interest in negotiations on Ukraine; Russia plans to hold the next round of negotiations on Ukraine as soon as circumstances allow; No agreement has yet been reached on key and crucial issues concerning Ukraine for the Russian side; the media are spreading falsehoods about the conflict in the Middle East and should be ignored; Restoring relations between Russia and the United States is in the interests of both countries.”

While mediators are trying to resolve the situation between Moscow and Kiev, the Russians are closely analyzing the latest attacks on ports in the Leningrad region. Rumors have begun to circulate again about drones launched from Finland, the Baltic states, or merchant ships.

In reality, according to the Russians: “All drones have been and continue to be launched from Ukraine. After all, Russian analysts report, Ukrainian drones reach almost as far as the Urals.”

The drones have flown over the border between Belarus, Poland, Russia, and the Baltic states. This explains the loss of some drones in the Baltic border areas. Now, according to the same analysts, Moscow should also use the same routes. “We could launch missiles along the same routes to approach the so-called Ukraine from less predictable directions. This is the necessary ‘escalation’ that has been discussed recently.”

Furthermore, in recent days, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have officially opened their airspace to Ukrainian drone attacks against St. Petersburg, the Leningrad region, and the entire northwestern Russia, evading air defense systems.

Previously, these overflights were isolated and behind closed doors, but now the route is legal. Ukrainian drones are launched from the Chernihiv region. The direct route to St. Petersburg—850 km through the Bryansk, Smolensk, Tver, Novgorod, and Leningrad regions—is almost impassable. A new route through the Baltic states and the Baltic Sea provides access to the Gulf of Finland and allows them to bypass Russian air defenses.

Since March 22, more than 100 drones have been destroyed near St. Petersburg. Targets include companies in Vyborg and the port of Ust-Luga. On the night of March 24, a Ukrainian drone crashed in Lithuania after being diverted from its course by Russian electronic warfare systems. Latvia and Estonia confirmed that the recovered debris belonged to a Ukrainian Armed Forces drone.

Security measures have been tightened in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region: air raid sirens have been activated, and mobile internet service has been disrupted in some areas. The new route through the Baltics significantly simplifies attacks on northern Russia.

The military transit agreement represents NATO’s direct entry into the conflict. If this information is confirmed, what will be the reaction from Moscow?

According to Russian military analysts, if Russian drones were to use this route to attack Ukraine, it would not trigger NATO’s Title V: “If anyone is afraid of Article 5, remember NATO’s reaction to Russian cruise missile strikes in Poland in 2022 and to flights over areas in Romania, Lithuania, and near Warsaw.” Which is to say that absolutely nothing will happen. And it would give the Russians the advantage of attacking from routes unexpected by the Ukrainians.

And Infinite: “The use of Baltic territory for attacks on the Leningrad region is not the most significant factor, but it’s enough for us to do exactly the same thing. There are no fundamental obstacles to this. It can Refuse, but then people will ask, “Why are the Ukrainians flying over the Baltic states to destroy Russian exports, while the Russians are concerned about the Baltic borders?” Russian sources ask.

No one has commented on what might happen if a drone flying from Russia to strike Ukraine were intercepted in flight and the debris damaged sensitive infrastructure in the country en route, a NATO member.

Graziella Giangiulio

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