One of Ukraine’s most experienced journalists, Vitaliy Sych, spoke to EUobserver earlier this week from Kyiv in an online interview — briefly interrupted by Russian attacks.
“Right now we have 75 Shaheds coming to Kyiv,” said Sych on Wednesday (25 March), the same day Russia had launched almost a 1,000 drones into Ukraine.
Sych is editor-in-chief of NV, an independent Ukrainian media outlet based in Kyiv.
He spoke about the impact of Iran on Ukraine, the €90bn of EU funding blocked by Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orbán, the Druzhba pipeline, what it will take to end Russia’s war, his message for the EU figureheads in Brussels and the importance of getting Russians to start talking about literature.
To what extent is the war in Iran impacting Ukraine?
There is a negative side. The negative side is that this gives [Vladimir] Putin more money. The increased oil prices give Putin more money.
More importantly, it gives him more confidence to continue the war because he was basically not in a very good shape. I mean, we’re not in a good shape. He’s not in a good shape. It’s like the fifth year of war. Nobody’s in good shape.
But when your economy is in trouble, when your revenue sources are in trouble – they [Russia] have budget deficits. Their expenditure is higher than their revenue and they don’t have the money. They were planning to cut expenditure by 10 percent which is a lot – that means hospitals, education, pensions, anything.
So anyway, it looked like they were heading for a major economic crisis, and then suddenly they have this boost that Trump, not a very smart guy, not the very wise planner, basically started this war, and the oil prices are up.
So Russians made several billion dollars more and more importantly, he now has some breathing space, Putin. He now has some hope that he can continue the war. That’s something that we don’t like of course.
I hope this war will not last long, because nobody’s interested in high oil prices, nor Trump, nor the Chinese. Nobody in Europe. Putin is the only beneficiary. So I think it should be over soon.
But the positive aspect of this war is that suddenly everybody realised how important Ukrainian technology is. Everybody’s realised how far ahead we are of everybody in Miltech [military technology].
Right now we have 75 shahed coming to Kyiv. So they obviously have a lot of anti-missile weaponry in place in the Gulf. For your information, over the first three days, the Gulf countries used more Patriot missiles that we’ve used over four years.
So basically, which means that they’ve had stockpiles. They’ve invested lots of money. Americans have sold them lots of missiles, and over the first three days, they used more than we use over four years.
A crashed Shahed drone in a research facility in Ukraine. Photo: Tomas Hrivnak
But they underestimated the Shahed. It’s big. It looks simple, but it’s not, because they’re cheap, and there are a lot of them.
So suddenly everybody wants our interceptors and wants our expertise, because we’ve built this multilayer anti-missile and air defence system, and it basically it needs experience, and it needs expertise.
So suddenly, here at the InterContinental hotel in the centre of Kyiv, the lobby is full of people from the Gulf countries with big wallets trying to buy drones from Ukraine.
I think we’ve sent a couple of teams to help Trump, but his ego didn’t allow him to basically enter negotiations. Suddenly Ukrainian military tech has become a synonym of progress.
Before we were just selling grain, and now one Ukrainian Miltech startup did an IPO last week, and it like boomed with $1bn. It’s just one Ukrainian tech company, and it’s already unicorn, so the demand is high.
Everybody realises that the threat is real. There’s a lot of talk about the Baltics being next.
So suddenly, here at the InterContinental hotel in the centre of Kyiv, the lobby is full of people from the Gulf countries with big wallets trying to buy drones from Ukraine.
We’ve lifted a ban on exports a little bit, so our companies will be getting some much needed cash from abroad for scaling up the technologies there we’re developing. And basically there is an understanding that Ukraine is not only somebody who is asking for money all the time, Ukraine is a country that can help with security and defence.
75 drones are currently on the way to Kyiv. That’s concerning, isn’t it?
It’s all in the context. My kids are at home on the 20th floor, so I have to make sure that if explosions start, so I ask them to go to the bathroom or down to the shelter. That’s it. Otherwise, it’s not a major attack.
We sometimes we see 500 drones a night, plus 50 ballistic missiles just over one night from Russia. It’s not like every day or every night. They pile up sometimes and then they attack, usually once a week, sometimes twice a week. Sometimes there are minor attacks. Ukraine is still a big country. It’s not only Kyiv.
Orbán blocked €90bn in EU funds. What does this mean for Ukraine?
It’s very simple. It’s existential. Basically, we seem to have, I’m not a big macroeconomist analyst here, but we seem to have money enough till May. Now, it’s the end of March, right?
So if we don’t have money enough, if we don’t get this loan in May, we’ll be in trouble basically in terms of continuing the war because war is expensive and Russians understand it’s expensive.
We’re the largest country in terms of defence spending per GDP. Some countries are trying to meet the two percent target in Europe, and I guess we’re about 40 percent now. So all of our money is going for defence and the money that we’re getting from the Europeans is going to cover the budget gaps, like schools, pensions, salary, hospitals and this stuff.
It’s difficult to fight with money. It’s more difficult to fight without money.
So if we don’t get it by May, that means we’ll be in trouble continuing the war. And the fact that this threat exists is very well understood in Kremlin. So they may manipulate, they will threaten, they will push for Orbán to keep blocking this stuff, because they realise if we don’t get the money, it’s just difficult to keep fighting, so we hope we will get the money. It’s difficult to fight with money. It’s more difficult to fight without money.
What is the prevailing mood in Ukraine?
The mood is better than it was a couple of months ago. It’s all about the context. I spoke to the German ambassador, I think two weeks ago, and he said suddenly a lot of Ukrainians are more optimistic. Why is that?
Well, first of all, it’s spring. We had major attacks or energy infrastructure. We had major blackouts. We didn’t have electricity for 16 hours and people in Europe don’t understand what that means.
It’s not just the light in your apartment. If you don’t have electricity, I am on the 20th floor, that means elevator. That means the water pumps are not working. If water pumps not working, you can’t go to the toilet.
Evacuation from Irpin, near Kyiv. With Russian siege attacks raging, the elderly and other at-risk groups face isolation and abandonment. (Photo: Vadim Ghirda)
Then you have no heating, minus 20. But we got used to it and we’ve invested heavily in this crisis management. Most of the businesses have generators. Just increases your cost. You have to buy diesel or gas all the time and pour it and then there’s lots of noise in the street because all of the pharmacies, restaurants, shops, they work with the help of generators.
In my building, we’ve contributed each apartment $500 and we’ve purchased so-called inverters and batteries. People don’t understand what that is. Basically it is something that accumulates energy when there is electricity and gives it back when there is not. So my elevator is working. We have water. We’re prepared, but there’s, of course, extra expenses, but you can live with it.
And then suddenly everybody told us, this is just the beginning. It is going to get worse. And then suddenly the spring came, and we have almost no blackouts. The temperatures rose, so consumption has fallen, and then we are okay. So that’s reason for optimism is at least. Everybody told us it’s going to get worse. It’s got better in terms of electricity and blackouts.
We still have this problem affecting our economy. Of course, without blackouts, we would expect four percent GDP growth this year. Now we expect 1.5 percent GDP growth because of the energy attacks, but still, you know, it’s 1.5 growth. The first year we had minus 20 percent of GDP.
Then the third reason for optimism is that the front line seems to be stabilising. Six months ago, the Russians were advancing on most directions, not a lot, but still advancing steadily. And that created major pressure and a threat of a possible breakthrough here or there.
Now it’s not the case. They may be advancing in some areas. In some areas, Ukrainians are advancing.
I just returned from Kharkiv. I was with two major units. There used to be brigades. Now they’re corps. It’s basically 80,000 people, and we spoke with them about the morale, about the situation on the front line, and basically they’re with the commanders, and their perception is that the Russians are running out of steam and running out of energy.
So they don’t see a Russian offensive in Kharkiv. They’re not talking for the whole front line.
Russia has laid waste to entire cities in Ukraine, including Vovchansk in the Kharkiv region (Photo: Ukraine )
They [Russians] have lots of older people like you and me. Sometimes they have this ridiculous offensive of 10 people trying to infiltrate Ukrainian lines. Two of them get drowned on the way somewhere. One of them just dies, just dies on the way because he’s old, and six of them would reach Ukrainian positions and be destroyed immediately with drones.
So basically they’re tired. The overall mood is people are tired and exhausted, but not desperate.
And the Russians attempted major offensive in Kharkiv Oblast on Sunday. I guess 28 armoured personnel vehicles and tanks, 100 motorcycles and buggies all destroyed like within few hours, completely and killed. It was like even stupid to watch, and each of the Russians was chased in the woods and basically killed with a drone. So if that’s the offensive, then you know, it’s close to comical.
But of course, I mean, they’re piling up some energy and some forces somewhere. They might have an offensive. So the frontline is stabilising, the blackouts are not really that big anymore. We’re tired, but we’ve used to living like that.
My children don’t remember what it is to live without air raid sirens. They’ve grown up in the war. And this €90bn thing is very important. But I hope there will be a way that either Orbán loses the elections on 12 April, or Europeans come up with the mechanism to overcome his veto. That’s the hope.
I think [Volodomyr] Zelensky [Ukraine president] he did a couple silly things. He basically got into this fight and verbal exchange with Orbán. That’s something that Orbán, I think, likes because he builds his whole campaign on anti-Ukrainian and anti-Brussels rhetoric. The major witches, the major scares, are Ursula [European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen] and Zelensky. So he uses any opportunity to position himself as a big patriot, anti-Ukrainian.
So when Zelensky said that he will give Orbán’s coordinates to our military to sort out things with him, that wasn’t smart, because Orbán immediately threw it on the fan, picked it up, and basically escalated. It wasn’t a smart thing to do. But I guess Zelensky has been briefed by our partners not to do that anymore.
And we have this Druzhba pipeline.
[background explosions]
We have some explosions now, just wait a second. Yeah, we have mobile groups working. I guess that’s the machine guns mounted on trucks and shooting down the Shahed. You cannot hear it, probably, but I can. Anyway, I think we can keep talking.
About the Druzhba pipeline?
I don’t know what happened to this pipeline. The official version is that the Russians hit it many times, which is probably true. Whether we are making every effort to fix it or not, I don’t know. Maybe we’re trying to punish Orbán. Not a very smart thing.
Nobody wants Russian oil to flow. They have elections in Hungary. We shouldn’t increase Orbán’s chances to win the elections, because he uses this Druzhba pipeline to escalate. I’ve met several people in Kyiv, ambassadors, who are upset about this Druzhba pipeline because Ukraine is not allowing them to inspect the Druzhba pipeline to prove that it was actually damaged by Russians.
During a Kyiv visit, Ursula von der Leyen urged Ukraine to repair the Druzhba pipeline, but Volodymyr Zelensky warned repairs risk workers’ lives amid ongoing Russian attacks
So the official version is that it has been damaged, but we don’t show it to anybody. So Europeans are confused, saying if it’s damaged, show us how it was damaged. Then show the Hungarians it was damaged by their partners, Russians, and then the talk is over. But we’re not showing to anybody.
So there is a speculation that maybe we’re using it as leverage against Orbán. But I guess we’ll have to open this Druzhba pipeline even if Péter Magyar wins. Not because we like Russian oil flowing through Ukrainian territory, but we don’t want to have enemies within European Union blocking our money.
What will it take to end this war?
It’s a very good question. That’s something I’m wondering about. It looks like Putin’s denying any nice and decent and acceptable offers that he’s had from Trump to exit the war, because we thought that Trump was relatively generous on proposing them to end the war, to lift part of the sanctions, to basically leave Putin with the territory that he has occupied, and build a new partnership with the United States.
So it looked like a very decent exit strategy for Putin. But he’s not accepted it. I think the reason he has not accepted it is that he wants more. He wants basically a political subjugation of Ukraine, the whole Ukraine. He doesn’t just want Donbas. There’s nothing left in Donbas. Why would you need Donbas? It is basically destroyed completely. No people there. The most active people, like entrepreneurs and so on, they fled Donbas. They’re in Kyiv or some of them in Russia. So basically there’s, like no major victory in occupying a completely destroyed Donbas.
So I guess what he wants is that Ukraine is basically a subordinate, and as long as he advances on the front line, even slowly, as long as he feels that he has the resources to keep doing it, he just does it. He can accept, agree on Trump’s plan anytime, any moment where he runs out of steam. As long as he can continue, he just continues. And then let’s see what happens.
I guess the way to end this war is to make Putin realise that he has another trajectory as well. It’s not that he continues the war. He advances little by little, and then if he doesn’t like it, he agrees to the peace plan. There is another trajectory where his economy may collapse, where sanctions may become worse, where things may get worse, and then if he has to choose something, then he has to make a decision.
At this point, he has just two acceptable trajectories. One, he agrees to a peace plan or he keeps the war and keeps advancing.
Viktor Orban in Moscow last summer meeting with Vladimir Putin despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (Photo: Kremlin)
The right way to end the war is to stabilise the front line so that they understand they’re not advancing and they will not advance and keep stifling the Russian economy, so they realise that run out of money in six months, and they will be in major trouble. And then when they understand that, then they’ll have to go and agree on something if they have any reason.
If you think in terms of ratio, the war doesn’t make sense. They’ve lost so many people, and their gains are minimal. Sometimes we start believing that there is nothing rational about Putin. He just wants to continue the war.
If he stops the war, all of these people come back. They have 700,000 people in the war in Ukraine. It’s a huge army. So what are they going to come back to in Russia? They will not be making any money like they’re making here. They’ll be upset.
Right now propaganda is basically the only compensator of a terrible quality of life in Russia. If you take away propaganda, there’s nothing left. There is like a toilet in a hole in the floor. There is alcoholism. There is no economic growth. There’s no prospects. And everybody hates Russians. So is that something he wants to talk on TV about? No.
They cover it up with daily reports that ‘we’ve captured this village.’ Nobody’s heard of this village before, not even in Ukraine, but their propaganda basically blows it out of proportion as major Russian pride and success, and the idiots are watching TV are thinking, oh, at least we are advancing on the front line.
But I guess inside Russia, there is now a lot of suspicion. I don’t know if you heard about it, but some pro Kremlin bloggers who were were quite influential, very loyal, last week they came out with major criticism of Putin. And some people even guessing, what’s that mean? I don’t know whether it was sanctioned or not.
There is a guy called Ilya Remeslo. He suddenly came out and said look, I’ve been supporting this war for all four years, but now I think Putin has dragged us into terrible, long war. He’s a criminal. He should go to jail. And I went to the front line. I spoke to people and of the them told me that the war sucks. The war is not going in a good way, and it’s not going to get better. So we’re fucked with this war. That’s what the Russian military tells them. He said, that’s why I believe that the Putin is a bad guy. He should go to jail.
So it looks like these things are becoming public in Russia.
They are several strange things happening in Moscow. They knock down mobile internet in the centre of Moscow. Can you imagine no internet in London or Brussels? That’s strange. They shut down Telegram, which was there a major messenger, 80 percent of coverage is shut down, and Putin hasn’t appeared in the last two weeks.
We don’t know whether all of these things are connected or not. The biggest assumption is that they are preparing for major crackdown or repression. That’s why they knock down all the communication channels for possible protests and coordination. Otherwise, it doesn’t make sense why you would shut down mobile internet in the centre of Moscow telegram and something else.
They might be planning a partial mobilisation. If forcibly dragging people into the war with high chance of dying, this is like high-intensity war. Some Russians are dying on the sixth day of the war, so they may expect a pushback, of course, some protest and some dissent. That’s why they might be preparing to basically knock down and destroy any possible channels of protests and so on. That’s our assumption.
Russia is a mystery sometimes, like Kremlinology, you need to double guess things.
Anything that shocks you about this war?