It is possible that the 16-year, illiberal rule of Hungary’s Viktor Orban, the EU’s longest serving prime minister, may be coming to an end. With two weeks to go to the April 12th election, independent polls show opposition leader Peter Magyar with a healthy lead, though even these are contested by government-backed parts of the media.
Magyar, a 43-year old lawyer and former diplomat, quit the ruling Fidesz party to join Tisza and unite the opposition. But despite the willingness of other parties to step aside to give Magyar’s Tisza party a clear run in the country’s complex and government-favouring voting system – which Orban adjusted to his own advantage – nothing is a given. Orban’s enfeebling of Hungarian democracy, control of state institutions and tight grip on the media could still tip the election the prime minister’s way.
Hungary “remains in a category of its own, continuing to pursue ever more regressive laws and policies with no sign of change”, the human rights group Liberty reported yesterday, while Transparency International has deemed it the EU’s most corrupt country. The EU has consistently criticised Orban’s failure to tackle high-level corruption which, along with poor state services, has led to the prime minister losing support.
It is little surprise that EU capitals will be taking a particular interest in this electoral contest. Some €18 billion in EU funds for Hungary have been frozen by Brussels because of cash diversions and attacks on the rule of law, while the Hungarian veto has blocked €90 billion in vital EU Ukraine aid. Diplomats fear that if re-elected Orban will also use his veto to block agreement on the union’s €1.3 trillion multi-annual budget, unless he gets guarantees that Hungary will escape fines for breaking EU rules.
The eclipse of Trump acolyte Orban, the inspiration for much of Europe’s far-right and populist movements, would be a landmark moment and a blow for his supporters on both sides of the Atlantic. But with a fortnight to go, one thing is clear. He will not go down without a fight.