Russia really has developed the dark arts of trolling the global community. I’m no expert. I could be wrong. But what’s the betting this turns out to be exactly like last year where they wound everyone up … and nothing happened? I seriously doubt Russia wants anything to do with directly controlling the bits of Ukraine that are not substantially ethnic Russian with all the difficulties an insurgent war would bring. Nor is Putin stupid enough to want a war with NATO. But he is happy to play brinkmanship games to stay relevant , intimidate neighbours, and stoke Russian nationalism presumably.
Again what do I know , I could be wrong but I guess we will see…
USA could temporarily deploy some forces in eastern Europe, some dumbasses will say that it’s bad because it increases tensions and risks WW III but here is the paradox, Russia continously tests neighbors, EU, USA and NATO with how much it is allowed to push around. For example constant breaches of air borders by Russian air forces. The only successful way to deter Russia is to deploy military forces in enough time as a reaction to it’s actions. Failling to that gives Russia silent permission to using it’s military, and in long term consequences increases potential for WW III outbreak, simillarly as UK, France and Poland ignoring Third Reich actions didn’t prevent outbreak of WWII but lead to it.
“Alongside these build-ups, Russia has mobilised its paramilitary security forces, the National Guards Units, and also sent them to Rostov. Following an invasion of Ukraine, it would use these to control conquered territory, suppress dissent, and install puppet administrations. Their mobilisation is a sign that the Kremlin is at least considering the option of further incursions into Ukraine. Compared to the situation in March and April 2021, when it last moved troops close to the Ukrainian border, Russia seems to be making much less effort to ensure the current assembly is visible. This may hint towards a significantly more serious intention than simply a wish to appear threatening.”
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Russia really has developed the dark arts of trolling the global community. I’m no expert. I could be wrong. But what’s the betting this turns out to be exactly like last year where they wound everyone up … and nothing happened? I seriously doubt Russia wants anything to do with directly controlling the bits of Ukraine that are not substantially ethnic Russian with all the difficulties an insurgent war would bring. Nor is Putin stupid enough to want a war with NATO. But he is happy to play brinkmanship games to stay relevant , intimidate neighbours, and stoke Russian nationalism presumably.
Again what do I know , I could be wrong but I guess we will see…
USA could temporarily deploy some forces in eastern Europe, some dumbasses will say that it’s bad because it increases tensions and risks WW III but here is the paradox, Russia continously tests neighbors, EU, USA and NATO with how much it is allowed to push around. For example constant breaches of air borders by Russian air forces. The only successful way to deter Russia is to deploy military forces in enough time as a reaction to it’s actions. Failling to that gives Russia silent permission to using it’s military, and in long term consequences increases potential for WW III outbreak, simillarly as UK, France and Poland ignoring Third Reich actions didn’t prevent outbreak of WWII but lead to it.
“Alongside these build-ups, Russia has mobilised its paramilitary security forces, the National Guards Units, and also sent them to Rostov. Following an invasion of Ukraine, it would use these to control conquered territory, suppress dissent, and install puppet administrations. Their mobilisation is a sign that the Kremlin is at least considering the option of further incursions into Ukraine. Compared to the situation in March and April 2021, when it last moved troops close to the Ukrainian border, Russia seems to be making much less effort to ensure the current assembly is visible. This may hint towards a significantly more serious intention than simply a wish to appear threatening.”