The introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) by the European Commission from January 1, 2026, could lead to a complete halt in the supply of metal products to the EU in 2030 and the forced closure of metallurgical enterprises in Ukraine.
This forecast was announced by GMK Center chief analyst Andriy Tarasenko while presenting the results of the study dubbed “The Impact of CBAM on the Ukrainian Mining and Metallurgical Complex and its Economy” in Kyiv on Tuesday.
According to him, the APM currently applies to some metal products, but this emissions tax and product range coverage will expand starting in 2028. In 2029-2030, the impact of the CBAM will sharply increase.
“In the near future, exports of commercial steel products, including pig iron, may decline by 2.5 million tonnes, or 25-30% of current production. However, starting in 2030, Ukraine’s exports to the EU are likely to be completely eliminated, which could lead to the complete closure of Ukrainian metallurgical plants,” the analyst warned.
“This impact of the SBM is limited to the ferrous metallurgy sector. In the worst-case scenario, Ukraine’s GDP will fall by 4% in 2030 due to the CBAM,” the researcher noted.
According to him, there is currently significant uncertainty regarding CBAM payments in 2026 and part of 2027. The market is trying to navigate expected emissions. Furthermore, a reduction in EU steel import quotas and an increase in scrap metal demand are expected, leading to an increase in EU scrap prices of EUR 60 per tonne.
Tarasenko noted that from January to February 2026, EU steel imports decreased by 18% for flat rolled products, 23% for long products, and 4% for pipes. Meanwhile, Ukrainian steel exports increased by 10% for flat rolled products, 64% for long products, and 44% for pipes during this period.
He also cited the following figures: in the EU, hot-rolled coil prices increased by EUR 110 per tonne from October 2025 to March 2026, while rebar prices increased by EUR 15 per tonne. This will somewhat mitigate the short-term impact, but the risks will increase in 2030. The average weighted CBAM payment for hot-rolled coil imports into the EU this year, according to estimated actual data, is approximately EUR 60 per tonne, while for electric steel it is EUR 20 per tonne.
As Stanyslav Zinchenko, CEO of GMK Center, clarified, at the end of December, the European Commission announced that it saw no reason to exempt Ukraine from the CBAM, while also declaring that the impact would be insignificant – at 0.01% of GDP in 2030. Most experts, industry and business associations, and representatives of major exporters disagreed with this assessment.