The supply shock now rippling through global oil markets is forcing a reassessment not just of near-term balances, but of the longer-term trajectory of demand — and whether the timeline for peak oil consumption could be pulled forward. At the center of the debate is the still uncertain scale and duration of the current disruption from the war in the Mideast Gulf. International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol notes that the loss of roughly 11 million barrels per day of supply exceeds the combined impact of the two major oil crises of the 1970s. That comparison frames a central question: Will today’s crisis, like those earlier shocks, leave a lasting imprint on consumption patterns? In the short term, the demand response is already materializing. Before the conflict, the IEA projected global oil demand growth of about 850,000 b/d in 2026. Within weeks of the Feb. 28 US-Israeli attacks on Iran, the IEA revised that outlook lower, by 210,000 b/d. Other estimates suggest a far steeper demand impact. BP Chief Economist Gareth Ramsey argues that price effects alone could be curbing demand by around 1 million b/d, noting that “every $10 per barrel increase in the average oil price results in a 200,000-300,000 b/d decrease in average global oil demand.” Benchmark Brent prices have surged by nearly $40/bbl since the outbreak of hostilities more than a month ago and $50/bbl since the start of 2026. Spikes in refined product prices have been even more acute, prompting governments in Asia and Europe to impose policies to curb consumption.
