Nasdaq 100 sees volatile session amid surging oil prices and strong jobs data. Markets face a complex week with inflation data and earnings on tap.

A marginal gain of 0.11% for the Nasdaq 100 on Thursday belied a session of significant intraday swings. The index found itself caught between surging oil prices and key economic data, reflecting a market grappling with intertwined geopolitical and monetary policy concerns.

Oil Shock and a Late Session Reversal

Trading opened sharply lower, driven by a dramatic spike in crude oil. Following former President Trump’s Wednesday evening address, which hinted at further military action, WTI crude catapulted over 11% to $111.54 per barrel. This sent the Nasdaq 100 tumbling to an intraday low of 23,512 points. The immediate impact was felt by airlines and cruise operators, while Amazon moved to implement a fuel surcharge for third-party carriers using its shipping service.

A diplomatic development prompted a notable recovery. Reports from Iranian state media indicated the country was working with Oman on a protocol to monitor maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. This news helped equities reverse course, allowing the index to close at 24,046 points—a weekly advance of 4.4%.

Performance within the index varied widely. Nvidia demonstrated relative strength and attracted buyer interest. In contrast, Tesla shares declined 5.5% after the company’s first-quarter delivery figures fell short of expectations. Globalstar surged 13% higher on speculation about potential acquisition interest from Amazon.

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A Strong Jobs Report Meets a Closed Market

Good Friday introduced a unique complication: the release of robust U.S. March non-farm payrolls data into a closed equity market. The report showed 178,000 new jobs created, significantly surpassing the consensus forecast of 59,000. The bond market reacted, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rising three basis points to 4.35%.

This data does little to alter the monetary policy outlook. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of an interest rate cut by year-end stands at just 22.5%. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current stance amid persistent inflation and rising energy costs.

Monday’s Convergence of Challenges

The week’s opening session on Monday faces a confluence of factors. Markets must digest the unprocessed jobs data, contend with potential new developments on the energy front, and navigate potentially thin liquidity due to a UK market holiday. The 24,000-point level in the Nasdaq 100 serves as a key immediate reference; a break below this mark at the 15:30 CET open could trigger further selling pressure.

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The week ahead also brings additional economic indicators, including Thursday’s release of the February PCE price index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—alongside quarterly earnings from Delta Air Lines.

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