THIS WEEK offers a weekly snapshot of the key developments in Brussels and across Europe over the next seven days, published every Monday morning.

Hungarians will head to the polls on Sunday (12 April) for one of the most consequential elections for the country and for Europe in recent years. US vice-president JD Vance is expected in Budapest ahead of the vote, in a show of support to Viktor Orbán’s regime.

Orbán, Hungary’s prime minister since 2010, is facing his toughest challenge yet, with the leader of the opposition Tisza party, Péter Magyar, leading in several late-March polls.

Orbán has framed the election as a choice between peace and war, using Ukraine as the main campaign battleground. In recent weeks, he has escalated his rhetoric, accusing Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky of interfering in the election.

Billboards across Hungary currently depict Zelensky alongside European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, framed as the “pro-war” forces voters must defeat.

“In 1989 we said no to the Soviets, in 2015 to migration, in 2022 to Brussels, and in 2026 we will say no to the Ukrainians,” Orbán said at a campaign rally last week. 

A campaign billboard shows EU commission president Ursula von der Leyen, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and leader of the opposition Péter Magyar emptying bags of Hungarian forints into a golden toilet adorned with the Ukrainian flag, making a reference to a corruption row in Kyiv involving an ally of Zelensky (Source: Dennik N)

The election campaign has turned into something resembling a spy movie. Earlier this month, the Hungarian government filed formal criminal charges of espionage against Szabolcs Panyi, an investigative journalist for Direkt36 and VSquare. 

Meanwhile, investigative reports confirmed that Szijjártó routinely phoned his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, during breaks in confidential EU Council meetings, providing updates on sensitive talks. 

One leaked call from August 2024 revealed Szijjártó promising Lavrov that Hungary would work with Slovakia to delist Gulbahor Ismailova (the sister of Russian oligarch Alisher Usmanov) from EU sanctions.

Opposition leader Magyar said that if the leaks are confirmed, it would amount to “treason” and carry potential prison time for Szijjártó.

Last week, a poll by the 21 Research Centre found that Tisza’s support among decided voters rose to 56 percent from 53 percent in early March, while backing for Fidesz fell to 37 percent from 39 percent three weeks earlier.

The far-right Eurosceptic Mi Hazánk (Our Homeland) party appears to be the only smaller party likely to clear the parliamentary threshold (with about five percent of support) – emerging as the potential kingmaker if neither Fidesz nor Tisza secures an absolute majority (100 seats). Analysts suggest it would be more likely to support a minority Fidesz government, pushing Hungary even further to the right. 

The smaller social liberal Democratic Coalition (DK) and the satirical anti-establishment Two-Tailed Dog Party (MKKP) are unlikely to enter parliament.

Notably, the two-thirds “supermajority” (133 out of 199 seats) is the “magic number” in the country – both for Orbán to continue ruling without breaks, and for Magyar to dismantle the “illiberal” system Orbán has built over the last 16 years.

Efforts on Hormuz 

Meanwhile, Nato chief Mark Rutte is heading to Washington (from 8 to 12 April) just after the US president Donald Trump threatened again to quit the transatlantic alliance over the lack of support of European countries for his joint war with Israel on Iran.