A rare KMT trip to Beijing tests Taipei’s balancing act, while global crises force tough choices on defence and diplomacy.

Taiwan is re-examining its security course: how much the island should rely on the United States for defense and how to reduce tensions through active dialogue with Beijing. The central storyline is Chen Li-Wun’s trip to mainland China with expected meetings with Xi Jinping.

In the context of the war in Iran and the related disruptions in U.S. weapon supplies, questions are being raised again about how much attention Washington can devote to Taiwan as several crises sweep the world simultaneously. Delays in deliveries, depletion of stockpiles, and the nature of coordination with allies underscore the uncertainty of long-term support.

If Chen meets Xi, it will be the first official contact between the head of the KMT and the top leader of China in more than a decade, and it will take place against the backdrop of a future summit between Trump and Xi in May, where Taiwan is expected to be one of the key items on the agenda.

Chen describes her trip as a step toward reducing tensions and emphasizes that Beijing continues to assert its sovereignty over Taiwan and does not rule out the possibility of a military option.

“War across the Strait is not inevitable,” Chen said. “We hope the visit will bring Taiwan and China relations to a soft and warm spring.”

– Chen Li-Wun

Political and International Contexts

On the same day, China officially invited Chen to a meeting, while a group of U.S. senators arrived in Taipei urging the adoption of a defense plan worth about $40 billion – signaling the intention to support Taiwan through the principle of “peace through strength.”

“It is important for all sides in Taiwan to unite to boost defense spending,” said Senator Jeanne Shaheen.

Senator John Curtis added that he needs to demonstrate to his colleagues that Taiwan is meeting its defense obligations.

Chen’s visit underscores how the war in Iran is changing the security discourse on Taiwan: a prolonged American campaign could redirect attention and resources from another conflict to Taiwan, while at the same time leaving the island more vulnerable to sustained pressure.

“This could reduce the pressure Beijing is likely to feel in the Indo-Pacific region if the United States focuses on another conflict.”

– William Yan, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group

Taiwan has already invested significant funds in U.S. defense systems – from fighters to missiles – but some orders have not yet been fulfilled, which the opposition uses as an argument against swiftly expanding spending to meet contracts in full.

Parliament is divided over the defense budget: some support its growth, others demand greater transparency and accountability to avoid excessive dependence of Taiwan on the United States without guarantees.

“The bipartisan collaboration between U.S. senators and the upcoming trip to China shows how the two major parties are trying to convey their messages.”

– Lev Nahman, political scientist at National Taiwan University

For the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, security depends on strengthening ties with the United States and deterrence, while the KMT believes that reducing tensions with China could reduce the risk of testing deterrence. Neither side calls for breaking off contacts; the focus is on how to allocate priorities between the two capitals.

Public Opinion and the Future

Many Taiwanese take pride in the island’s economic successes – leadership in microchip manufacturing and high-tech potential – but at the same time feel pressure from international forces and the need to preserve democratic values and sovereignty. A balanced approach, combining defense and dialogue, looks like a realistic solution for regional stability.

Chen Li-Wun emphasizes pragmatism: “Small children choose,” she notes, “Taiwan wants it all,” implying the possibility of interacting with both powers without choosing immediately. The results of her visit will remain a topic of further discussion among voters and experts.

Regardless of the specific outcome, Taiwan continues to balance between strengthening defense and supporting dialogue as a path to reducing the risks of confrontation, while preserving democratic values and strategic autonomy on the world stage.