Moscow has warned EU member states in the Baltic region that they will receive a “response” if they allow Ukraine to use their airspaces for drone attacks on Russia, drawing a swift riposte from Brussels.
The Kremlin’s threat to Estonia, Finland and Latvia comes as Ukraine pounds vital Russian oil infrastructure in the region in an attempt to prevent President Putin’s war machine from profiting from a spike in global oil prices resulting from the war in the Middle East.
Ukrainian drones struck the Ust-Luga port on the Baltic Sea overnight, starting a large fire, according to Russian Telegram channels. The port, a major export hub for Russian oil, was hit on at least five separate occasions by Ukrainian drones between March 22 and 31.
The aftermath of a drone strike at the end of last month on Ust-Luga’s oil storage tanksVANTOR/REUTERS
Pro-Kremlin media and bloggers have alleged that Estonia, Finland and Latvia have been providing Ukraine with airspace to carry out the strikes. Estonia has denied the claims, while Latvia has accused Moscow of carrying out a disinformation campaign. Finland has also said that its territory is not being used for attacks on Russia.
“These countries have been given an appropriate warning. If the regimes of these countries have any sense, they will heed it. If not, they will have to deal with a response,” Maria Zakharova, the Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman, said.
A number of Ukrainian drones have crashed in Estonia and Latvia, as well as Finland, in recent weeks. Andrii Sybiha, the Ukrainian foreign minister, has accused Russia of using electronic jamming systems to divert deliberately the Ukrainian drones into the airspaces of Baltic countries.
Other Russian oil facilities in the Baltic, as well as in the Black Sea, have also been repeatedly struck by Ukraine. The campaign has contributed to a 40 per cent decline in Moscow’s oil export capacity, according to Reuters. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, said last week that the Russian military was analysing the strikes and would propose countermeasures, if necessary.
Estonia and Latvia gained independence from Moscow shortly before the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and joined Nato in 2004. Finland became a member of Nato in 2023. All three countries are also members of the European Union.
A Ukrainian serviceman near Kharkiv with an FPV drone with an AI-assisted targeting systemsofia gatilova/reuters
“An attack on one of our member states is an attack on the EU as a whole,” Thomas Regnier, a spokesperson for the European Commission, said. Western officials have warned that Russia could be planning to attack another European country in the next few years.
The Russian warning comes after President Trump threatened to withdraw the United States from Nato over the reluctance of European member states to support the US in its war against Iran. His comments have led to fresh doubts about Washington’s willingness to help defend the Baltic region from any attack by Moscow.
Ukraine says it is expecting Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump’s envoys, in Kyiv after Orthodox Easter, which is celebrated on April 12. Kyrylo Budanov, President Zelensky’s chief of staff, told Bloomberg that the Republican senator Lindsey Graham would also be in the US delegation.
Peace talks over the war in Ukraine have stalled in recent months, with little hope of a breakthrough. Zelensky said at the weekend that Ukraine was concerned that a long war in the Middle East would lead to a decline in support for Kyiv in the West. “We have to recognise that we are not the priority for today,” he said.