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Marathon Petroleum’s updated fair value price target in the model now sits at US$236.61, up from US$216.17. This move of about 9% puts fresh focus on where analysts think the stock could go next. Recent Street research, with many targets pushing higher and a smaller group trimming forecasts, helps explain this new level as a response to shifting views on earnings power and risks. As you read on, you will see how to track these changing targets and what they might mean for your own research process.
Several firms, including Goldman Sachs, Mizuho, UBS, TD Cowen, Wells Fargo, Raymond James, Barclays, Citi, Piper Sandler and BofA, have raised their price targets on Marathon Petroleum in recent months, which aligns with the higher fair value estimate in the model.
Goldman Sachs lifted its target to US$239 from US$211, while Mizuho took its target to US$224 from US$205, indicating that their models support higher valuation assumptions than before.
UBS and Raymond James each made sizeable upward revisions in late March and early April, suggesting increased confidence in the company relative to earlier expectations.
The February moves from TD Cowen and Wells Fargo to higher targets indicate continued support from large U.S. sell side firms on execution and earnings power.
Mizuho keeps a Neutral rating despite raising its target twice and has noted that consensus estimates for 2026 are viewed as too high, which may limit upside in some analyst models.
Scotiabank cut its target by US$15 in January and Citi trimmed its target by US$3 around the same time, showing that not all research is aligned with the more optimistic revisions.
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NYSE:MPC 1-Year Stock Price Chart
We’ve flagged 2 risks for Marathon Petroleum. See which could impact your investment.
United Steelworkers has neither accepted nor rejected Marathon Petroleum’s latest contract offer, so refinery labor negotiations remain unresolved.
Marathon Petroleum has begun contract talks with the United Steelworkers, which puts future refinery labor terms and operating conditions in focus.
From October 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025, Marathon Petroleum repurchased 5,240,265 shares, or 1.74% of shares, for US$1,000.16m. This brought total buybacks under the May 31, 2017 authorization to 447,068,562 shares, or 94.12% of the program, for US$45,663.88m.
Marathon Petroleum plans to hold its 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders on April 29, 2026. The meeting will include a proposed amendment to the Certificate of Incorporation.
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