JD Vance left Pakistan without a deal on Saturda(Image: POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
Middle East peace negotiations between the US and Iran ended in failure this weekend after JD Vance and his Iranian counterpart’s marathon talks achieved no breakthrough – leaving the conflict’s future up in the air.
The two leaders spent 21 hours engaged in closed-door talks in Islamabad, on Saturday, but emerged empty-handed from the otherwise historic meeting mediated by Pakistan. Both camps came forward with very different statements in the aftermath, with Vance telling a news conference Iran has “chosen not to accept our terms” while calling for an “affirmative commitment” the country would seek a nuclear weapon or the tools required to manufacture one.
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baqaei, told the country’s state media “two or three key issues” stood in the way of a deal, but did not clarify whether officials would return to the table for additional discussions.
The ceasefire period of two weeks remains in place for the moment as diplomacy is expected to continue through third-party mediators but without progress a return to war looks inevitable – and leaves uncertainty on several critical subjects.
READ MORE: Iran war LIVE: JD Vance and Iran quit peace talks as US admits ‘no agreement made’READ MORE: Donald Trump claims ‘victory’ in Iran saying Strait of Hormuz ‘will soon open’
JD Vance has criticised ‘excessive demands’ from Iran(Image: POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
‘Excessive demands’ – the nuclear question
Both negotiating teams have levelled differing claims about demands from either side at one another, with Vance striking the more insistent tone of the two.
Speaking during his press conference on Saturday night, he said bluntly that Iran had “chosen not to accept our terms”. He said: “They have chosen not to accept our terms. We leave here with a very simple proposal: a method of understanding that is our final and best offer. We’ll see if the Iranians accept it.”
Among his issues, he told reporters, was lengths Iran was willing to take to ensure it would never be able to obtain a nuclear weapon – a field previously and effectively addressed by the Barack Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
He said there would need to be an “affirmative commitment” that Iran would never be able to achieve a weapon, an issue on which current and former Iranian officials have weighed in. Former Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif, who helped negotiate the JCPOA, said it was “not too late” for the US to realise “it can’t dictate terms to Iran”.
As Vance headed home, the Iranian foreign ministry said in a statement: “The heavy loss of our great elders, dear ones, and fellow countrymen has made our response to pursue the Iranian nation’s interests and rights firmer than ever before.”
Iran is however still willing to hammer out an arrangement, said lead negotiator and Iranian Parliamentary leader Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who said that, while the US was “unable to gain the trust of the Iranian delegation in this round of talk”, that “now it is time for it to decide whether it can earn our trust or not.”
He added: “At all times, we see strong diplomacy as a parallel track to military action in defending the rights of the Iranian people, and we will not stop for a moment in working to secure the achievements of the forty days of national defence.”
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is leading the Iranian side of the talks(Image: Pakistan Prime Minister’s Office/UPI/Shutterstock)
Lebanon
Occupying perhaps the most precarious position on the ceasefire negotiation list is Lebanon, which remains under attack from US war partners Israel.
Over 2,000 people, mostly civilians, have died since Benjamin Netanyahu’s forces started targeting Iranian-aligned Hezbollah militants in the country. More than 300 of those deaths and 1,600 injuries were caused by Israel’s deadliest attack on Wednesday – three days after a ceasefire initially believed to have included the country took hold.
While Donald Trump said Israel has agreed to bombard the country less as it negotiates with Beirut, the killing has continued in the absence of an overall deal.
Netanyahu, while authorising talks set to take place in Washington DC on Thursday, insisted “there is no ceasefire” in Lebanon, while pledging to “continue to strike Hezbollah with force”. Hezbollah, outstripped by Israel’s vast US-backed arsenal, has been returning fire with missile strikes on the country, although they have been intercepted by defences.
The lack of change in Lebanon especially has left people concerned that there could be more – not less – conflict on the horizon before any significant progress is made.
Israel has relentlessly bombarded Lebanon despite the ceasefire(Image: AP)
Economic crisis
With no agreement on the table, fluctuating fuel prices that have sent the global economy into free-fall have not been reined in, with consumers feeling the pinch at the pump.
Crude oil rose from $66.97 (£49.77) per barrel at the end of February to $97.47 (£72.44) on Friday, as traffic on the Strait of Hormuz, the critical shipping artery Iran controls, remains backed up. Tankers have been unable to travel smoothly through the heavily mined strait, and it is unclear as to whether it is as of yet fully open.
Those prices and the lack of movement have directly hit prices at the pump, which, according to national analysts AAA Fuel Prices, currently average at around $4.125 (£3.07) per gallon. This is up by nearly a whole dollar on 2025.
The increase is even more stark in the UK, which is, unlike the US, still partly reliant on importing oil through the strait. Uncertainty over the ceasefire in Iran led to average petrol prices of 158.03p a litre on Thursday, and diesel prices of 191.11p according to the RAC. Those prices have been consistently rising, and a tank of petrol is now
The RAC found that Brits are now paying on average £13.86 more for a whole tank of petrol than they did before the conflict exploded across the Middle East.
Future prices are contingent on the ceasefire, Luke Bosdet, the AA’s spokesman on pump prices, told the BBC, saying: “Based on the fuel industry’s rule of thumb of a 10 to 14-day lag between wholesale cost movements and those at the pump, drivers should expect prices on forecourts to level by next weekend and then fall – providing the ceasefire holds.”
Continued uncertainty has left fuel prices high around the world(Image: Maureen McLean/Shutterstock)
Donald Trump
He isn’t directly participating in the talks, but Trump loomed large over the Islamabad discussions and Middle East at large due to his belligerent approach to international relations.
That belligerence, sources have suggested, has caused disagreements in the negotiating process, and the president has continued to swipe from the sidelines on social media. In a post on Truth Social after the talks failed on Saturday, Trump claimed Iran’s leaders are “no-longer with us” and again mocked Islam while his vice president was being hosted by majority-Muslim nation Pakistan.
He wrote: “Their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their Anti Aircraft apparatus is nonexistent, Radar is dead, their Missile and Drone Factories have been largely obliterated along with the Missiles and Drones themselves and, most importantly, their longtime “Leaders” are no longer with us, praise be to Allah!
“The only thing they have going is the threat that a ship may ‘bunk’ into one of their sea mines which, by the way, all 28 of their mine dropper boats are also lying at the bottom of the sea.”
Trump also likely offended allies, who are currently working to reopen the strait without assistance from the US, adding: “We’re now starting the process of clearing out the Strait of Hormuz as a favor to Countries all over the World, including China, Japan, South Korea, France, Germany, and many others. Incredibly, they don’t have the Courage or Will to do this work themselves.”
Dealmaker-in-chief Donald Trump bizarrely claimed it ‘makes no difference’ if the US can’t make a deal with Iran(Image: AFP via Getty Images)
War or peace?
Trump is now faced with a key decision – will he continue to pursue peace or return to war with Iran? As with many other issues, the president currently doesn’t seem to care, with the dealmaker-in-chief saying in a statement outside the White House that it “makes no difference” despite sending his right-hand-man thousands of miles overseas to hammer out a deal.
He said: “Regardless what happens, we win. Whether we make a deal or not makes no difference to me.” He went on to claim: “We’ve totally defeated that country and so let’s see what happens.
“Maybe they make a deal, maybe they don’t, it doesn’t matter. From, from the standpoint of America, we win.” Despite claiming a heavily disputed victory, Trump’s bid to re-exert US influence in the Strait of Hormuz has so far not gone to plan, with Iran having successfully threatened off a military ship.
The vessel was forced to retreat after Iran warned it would be attacked within 30 minutes if it tried to cross the strait – although this was reported by Iranian state TV.