Market snapshot
Prices current at around 2:39pm AEST
Live updates on the major ASX indices:
Just nowTue 14 Apr 2026 at 5:43am
Iran War unlikely to derail China’s export boom: analyst
China’s export growth in Q1 2026 rose to its highest level in four years, according to Zichun Huang, a China-focused economist from Capital Economics.
One bright spot was car exports, which rose 58.4% y/y last quarter, Ms Huang said.
“They are likely to continue playing a key role in supporting export growth this year, helped by the increasing competitiveness of China’s EVs amid higher fuel prices,” she said.
“Another important driver was semiconductors, with export growth accelerating from 36.7% y/y in Q4 to 77.3% last quarter, the fastest pace in well over a decade.
“This surge was largely price-driven, reflecting a global shortage of memory chips.”
Ms Huang added that despite the energy price shock, exports should stay solid in the coming quarters, thanks to strong demand for semiconductors and green technologies.
18m agoTue 14 Apr 2026 at 5:25am
CommBank data shows household spending remains resilient by far
Commonwealth Bank’s weekly spending data has shown that overall household spending has remained resilient so far in 2026, partly due to higher spending on petrol and utilities.
Total spend declined in the week ending 4 April due to the Easter long weekend and because of lower petrol costs, according to CommBank.
“Purchases of discretionary goods were relatively steady, though travel spending was soft,” the bank said, adding that this may be a tentative sign that consumers are being more careful.
“But there are a range of factors at play, including Easter and the disruption and uncertainty of travel through the Middle East, which may be delaying spending.
“The decline in travel spending was sharper in regional areas compared to metro areas.
“That said, total spending in regional areas has been as resilient as metro areas.
“Public transport spending as a share of wallet has declined, driven by the introduction of free public transport in Victoria and Tasmania from 1 April.”
New ABC Business Daily is out!
In the latest episode, we have Carrington Clarke and ABC’s Chief Business Correspondent Ian Verrender to discuss whether Australia can tap its own energy reserves to reduce its reliance on foreign oil.
47m agoTue 14 Apr 2026 at 4:56am
Stagflation is a ‘central banker’s nightmare’: RBA deputy governor
RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser says stagflation is a “nightmare” for central bankers, because high inflation and slowing economic growth are difficult to manage.
He says the RBA is concerned about how the global energy shock and rising inflation will impact Australia’s economy over the next two to three years.
Read more on the reporting from my colleague Gareth Hutchens.
1h agoTue 14 Apr 2026 at 4:35am
Westpac expected to continue to perform well: UBS
UBS Investment Bank has said Westpac is expected to continue to perform well and is aligned with consensus and its forecasts.
UBS says it’s Neutral rated on Westpac with a price target of $40 per share, having downgraded the
stock in Q3 25.
“WBC’s 1H26 update shows stable core net interest margin (NIM), strong deposit growth, and cost beats amid economic challenges,” UBS said.
“Key highlights for the market should include the stable core NIM, which remains consistent with Q1 26 at 1.79%, strong growth in deposits and lending, and a cost performance ahead of expectations.
“However, macroeconomic and market-related challenges are becoming more evident.
“Additionally, the bank has updated its provisioning outlook to account for a weaker economic baseline and introduced a new overlay for energy-intensive sectors.”
Westpac’s 1H 26 results are scheduled for release on May 5.
What routes Qantas cuts
We’ve just received the latest update from Qantas on what routes it cuts.
The airline has confirmed four temporary route suspensions.
Qantas:
Melbourne – Hamilton Island (suspended from May 18 to June 28)Melbourne – Coffs Harbour (suspended from May 18 to June 28)
Jetstar:
Sydney – Busselton (suspended from May 18 to September 22)Darwin – Gold Coast (suspended from May 18 to October 12)
Separately, Qantas has also decided to indefinitely suspend flights between Adelaide and Mount Gambier from May 18.
Impacted customers are being offered refunds or alternative flights, the airline says.
Plunging business confidence ‘an ominous sign’ of economic downturn ahead — analysis
The latest consumer and business confidence readings from Westpac and NAB respectively are dire.
While consumer confidence has been weak for some time, and written off by the RBA as relatively uncorrelated with household spending, the business confidence number of -29 for March should be ringing alarm bells at the central bank.
While current business conditions remained steady at +6, the respondents to NAB’s long running survey are effectively saying they can’t take much more of these high energy prices, higher interest rates and the prospect of outright fuel shortages.
Business confidence has collapsed while trading conditions remain solid (JP Morgan/NAB)
In fact, as JP Morgan’s Tom Ryan points out, the gap between confidence and conditions is the largest since the onset of the COVID pandemic — and we all know what followed.
“A negative spread — where confidence sits below conditions — is an ominous sign for business conditions, which are likely to move lower the longer the Middle East conflict persists,” he warns.
“Particularly large spreads imply businesses perceive a looming shock, last occurring in 1Q20 during COVID-19 lockdowns, which was followed by a sharp fall in conditions.
“We expect business conditions to deteriorate from here if global commodity supply constraints persist.”
Hiking interest rates again next month into this environment would be quite a risk, to say the least.
Yet markets are pricing about a 65% chance that this is exactly what the Reserve Bank will do when it next meets on May 4-5.
Business confidence crashes to lowest since April 2020: NAB
The outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East saw Australian business confidence fall 29 points to -29 index points in March, the second largest monthly fall in the survey’s history, according to NAB’s latest monthly survey.
The bank’s research team said that “falls of this magnitude” had previously only been seen in the GFC in 2008 and the onset of COVID.
“The decline in conditions was broad-based across industries and was largest in transport & utilities, construction and
retail, where direct impacts on costs and consumer demand are most obvious,” it said.
By industry, business conditions were mixed: four industries rose, four fell, with mining, transport, and utilities rising the most, while wholesale saw the largest
fall, the NAB survey showed.
In trend terms, conditions were positive for all
industries except manufacturing.
Meanwhile, business conditions in Western Australia and South Australia rose by 17 and 9 points, respectively, while Victoria recorded the largest fall, down 11 points.
The bank said conditions remained positive in
all regions except Victoria, while confidence is now in
negative territory across all regions.
NAB added that purchase cost growth rose sharply to 3% in quarterly
equivalent terms, doubling the rate reported in
February.
“Labour cost growth was flat at 1.5%,” it said.
“Product price growth rose to 1.1% while retail price
growth fell to 0.5%, partially unwinding the rise in
February.”
2h agoTue 14 Apr 2026 at 3:33am
Bitcoin and Ethereum find fresh momentum this month: analyst
Both major cryptos, Bitcoin and Ethereum, delivered a solid session overnight, IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said.
Bitcoin finished higher overnight at $US74,447, up 5.2%, marking its strongest daily close in a month, he said, while Ethereum surged 8.1% to finish at $US2,370, its highest daily close since late January.
“This time last month, Bitcoin and Ethereum were riding an eight-session winning streak and ranked among the top-performing asset classes in mid-March — keeping company with heating oil, WTI crude, and gasoline,” Mr Sycamore said.
“While the Middle East conflict clearly fuelled energy prices back then, crypto’s gains seemed driven by something different: investors treating Bitcoin and Ethereum as a safe haven against fiat uncertainty and geopolitical risks, especially as equities and gold came under pressure from surging energy costs and crowded positioning.
“That eight-day rally eventually ran out of steam as the Middle East conflict escalated and weighed on most assets.”
He added that yet April had brought a noticeable shift in sentiment.
“Crypto is now showing the other side of its split personality — behaving more like a high-beta risk asset and moving closely in step with equities.
“Bitcoin has gained 8.9% so far this month, Ethereum has climbed 12.3%, both outpacing the Nasdaq 100, which is up 6.9% month to date.”
2h agoTue 14 Apr 2026 at 3:11am
New data shows Aussie retail investors pivot to defence while continue to back AI in Q1 2026
Australian retail investors pivoted towards defence and out of consumer and travel names, while continuing to invest heavily in AI-related stocks during the first quarter of 2026, according to new data from trading and investing platform eToro.
The most notable trend among Australian retail investors in Q1 was the decisive move into defence stocks, eToro said.
American defence and aerospace manufacturer Lockheed Martin (+26%) and California-headquartered end-to-end space company Rocket Lab (+20%) were among the top risers, as the Middle East conflict and broader geopolitical instability drove interest in the sector, it said.
Other cloud, AI-integrated tech, and semiconductor companies that proved popular with local investors included ASML (+10%), Oracle (+10%), Microsoft (+8%), and Salesforce (+8%), according to the trading platform.
Technology leads ASX
Eight of 11 sectors are higher, along with the ASX 200.
Technology is the best-performing sector, gaining 4.4%, followed by Materials, up 1.7%, and Health Care, up 1.1%
3h agoTue 14 Apr 2026 at 2:40am
Singapore tightens monetary policy as Iran war fuels inflation risks
Singapore’s central bank has tightened its monetary policy settings on Tuesday, flagging the risk that an Iran war-fuelled energy shock could push up core inflation.
The Middle East conflict has upended global growth and inflation trajectories, throwing interest-rate expectations into disarray.
As a small trade-dependent hub, Singapore is especially vulnerable to supply-chain disruptions and volatile energy prices.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said it would slightly increase the rate of appreciation of the S$NEER (Singapore Dollar Nominal Effective Exchange Rate) policy band.
“There are considerable risks around the outlook for inflation and growth,” the MAS said, adding that the Middle East situation “is evolving and remains highly uncertain.”
“GDP growth in the Singapore economy will slow over the course of this year, while the output gap should average around 0%.”
Reporting with Reuters
Qantas cuts domestic flight and raises fares as fuel costs blow out
This morning, Qantas said that to mitigate the impact of the conflict, it had increased fares, adjusted capacity and made changes to its international flight network.
The airline said it was closely monitoring the fuel situation and working with government and suppliers “who continue to provide confidence in fuel supply for the remainder of April and well into May”.
My colleague Stephanie Chalmers has more.
3h agoTue 14 Apr 2026 at 2:20am
Market snapshot
Prices current at around 12:17pm AEST
Live updates on the major ASX indices:
ACCC probes retailers about potential misleading advertising of Black Friday sales
The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) says it’s investigating several retailers for making potentially misleading claims to consumers during last year’s Black Friday sales.
The probe, which followed a sweep announced last November, has found that around half of the 50 retailers reviewed made concerning claims in their advertising of Black Friday sales.
“We are concerned that retailers appear to be increasingly relying on tactics that manipulate consumers by creating a false sense of urgency that they will miss out on a discount if they don’t buy the product now,” ACCC deputy chair Catriona Lowe said.
“Sales tactics that create a false sense of urgency can mean that consumers are unable to make an informed purchasing decision as the fear of missing out can stop them from shopping around to ensure they are securing a genuine deal or the best deal available.”
The Black Friday sales sweep has found that some of the retailers reviewed were using potentially misleading countdown timers in their Black Friday sales online advertising, according to the watchdog.
These timers claimed the sale’s end was imminent, even though the sale actually extended beyond the indicated time, it said.
The ACCC says it has also identified that many retailers continued to make large, headline claims of ‘sitewide’ or ‘storewide’ sales alongside significantly less prominent disclaimers about exclusions to the sale.
The ACCC has not named any companies.
3h agoTue 14 Apr 2026 at 1:44am
The ‘gap’ between financial markets and the real world
That chasm between financial markets and the real world is widening.
RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser is in the Big Apple talking about the nightmare scenario of stagflation, Qantas is axing some domestic flights as fuel bills soar and Westpac is preparing for a lift in late payments as energy costs drain cash from customers.
But stocks this morning are up strongly, and now tracking just 2.5% below the record high set in early March, just before Israel and the US began bombing Iran.
It’s not just here either. The disconnect is even more pronounced on Wall Street.
(The Kobeissi Letter)
After years of a strong correlation, stocks have completely cast aside consumer sentiment, a trend that began during the COVID -19 crisis.
US consumer sentiment has now fallen below the pandemic nadir as measured by the University of Michigan. But Wall Street ended last night just 1 per cent beneath its all-time high.
Who cares about the real world?
4h agoTue 14 Apr 2026 at 1:22am
Are rising fuel costs doing some of the job of rate rises?
That’s a question that RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser was asked during a fireside chat in New York this morning, Australian time.
“We’re doing a new forecast round at the moment, that will be out in a few weeks’ time, where we will have to attempt to quantify those effects,” he responded.
“But it does add to the challenge, the challenge that we’ve described before, about evaluating whether this oil shock, if it is a shock, how big a shock it is, does some of the job of slowing the economy that rate rises would be expected to do.”
So too early to say whether rising fuel costs might give the RBA pause for thought about pushing through a third straight rate rise in May.
RBA deputy talks about ‘central banker’s nightmare’ of stagflation
The Reserve Bank’s deputy governor Andrew Hauser did a fireside chat in New York this morning, before heading to IMF and World Bank meetings on in Washington DC later this week.
During the chat he spoke about the kind of extremely depressed consumer confidence figures that are not only being seen in Australia, but also in the US and many other countries too.
“I don’t think those surveys necessarily tell you a lot about what consumption is going to do,” he said, echoing recent comments by RBA governor Michele Bullock at her last press conference.
“But, if they’re right, we have a big income shock coming our way, we’re going to have to think about that.
“So it is the central banker’s nightmare, the stagflationary shock inflation up, activity down, judging the balance between those two is, I guess, how we earn our money.”
As reported below, Australian consumer confidence has just suffered its biggest monthly fall since the initial onset of the COVID pandemic.
Risk-on day as traders shrug off Strait of Hormuz worries
To borrow a very Aussie turn of phrase, it seems like the bulk of share traders are saying, ‘She’ll be right’, when it comes to the Middle East conflict.
The benchmark ASX 200 index is up 0.4% in the first hour of trade, with some of the higher risk sectors driving the gains.
Real estate and technology are the best performing sectors, both up more than 1%.
ASX 200 top gainers around 11:00am AEST (LSEG)
More defensive “consumer non-cyclicals” were the biggest drag (-0.6%).
ASX 200 bottom movers around 11:00am AEST (LSEG)