Economist Prof. Esfender Korkmaz warns that the biggest risk facing Türkiye’s economy is not purely financial but political. A potential government-appointed trustee (kayyum) to the main opposition CHP could trigger a sharp currency shock, with the U.S. dollar potentially surging to 100 TL, while deepening existing macroeconomic fragilities.

Fitch Flags Rising Risks, Cuts Outlook to ‘Stable’

Credit rating agency Fitch Ratings revised Türkiye’s outlook from positive to stable on April 10, 2026, without waiting for its regular review cycle, citing “sudden and significant changes” in the country’s risk profile.

Türkiye remains in speculative territory across major agencies:

Fitch: BB- / Stable
Moody’s: Ba3 / Stable
S&P: BB / Stable

These ratings reflect concerns about the country’s ability to manage external shocks and maintain financial stability.

COMMENTARY: The economic cost of harassing CHP

Reserves Decline Raises Structural Concerns

According to Korkmaz, the weakening of foreign exchange reserves is one of the most critical vulnerabilities.

Gross reserves fell from $205 billion to $161.6 billion
Net reserves dropped from $78.6 billion to $19.3 billion
Political developments and capital outflows led to an estimated $50–60 billion depletion

He argues that reserve accumulation largely depends on borrowing, swaps, and regulatory measures, rather than sustainable inflows, making the buffer less reliable in times of stress.

External Financing Fragility Deepens

Balance of payments data highlights mounting pressures:

No net foreign direct investment inflows; $113 million outflow recorded
$9.2 billion in portfolio inflows, reflecting “hot money” dependence
$14.6 billion in new external borrowing
$7.6 billion unexplained outflow under net errors and omissions

Tourism, a key source of foreign currency, is also under strain:

Early bookings reportedly down 50%
Reservations 80% lower year-on-year, according to sector data

Currency Policy Under Strain

Korkmaz argues that the Turkish lira is being artificially supported through interventions by the central bank and state-owned banks.

While this policy has contained volatility in the short term, it has also:

Reduced export competitiveness
Increased vulnerability to sudden capital outflows

Based on inflation differentials, he estimates that the USD/TRY rate should already be around 57, suggesting a significant misalignment.

“Biggest Risk Is Political, Not Economic”

Korkmaz identifies the most severe threat as a potential government intervention in the opposition, specifically the appointment of a trustee to the Republican People’s Party (CHP).

He warns that such a move could have dramatic consequences:

The exchange rate could spike to 100 TL per dollar
The European Union could impose sanctions
External imbalances could escalate into a full-blown crisis

“This would not be a standard political development—it would directly destabilize markets,” Korkmaz suggests.

Persistent Inflation and Structural Weakness

Türkiye has been grappling with high inflation for over four years, despite nearly three years of disinflation policies.

Korkmaz argues that without:

Structural reforms
Strengthened rule of law
Improved institutional credibility

inflation is likely to remain chronically above 20%.

Policy Criticism: Growth Model Under Pressure

The economist also criticizes the broader economic strategy:

Heavy reliance on imports for production
Limited incentives for domestic manufacturing
Policy framework driven by short-term electoral considerations

He warns that this model may provide temporary relief but risks long-term economic and political costs.

Outlook: Fragile Balance, Rising Uncertainty

Türkiye’s economic outlook remains highly sensitive to:

Reserve dynamics
External financing conditions
Energy prices
Political developments

Korkmaz concludes that while macroeconomic risks are significant, political decisions could act as the ultimate trigger for a deeper crisis.

 

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