One to two million barrels of crude oil could be permanently lost from global markets if the Iran war causes supply to be disrupted in the long term, according to ANZ.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off nearly a fifth of global oil flows, and producers in the region face having to stop production if they cannot store oil or find other ways to transport it.

ANZ analysts earlier this week estimated that 10 million barrels per day of crude had been removed from the market compared to January, and recovery could be slow and uneven.

Strait of HormuzOil tankers and cargo ships line up in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Khor Fakkan, United Arab Emirates, Wednesday, March 11, 2026. (AP Photo/Altaf Qadri)

“We see a credible risk that one to two million barrels per day of capacity may be permanently lost or limited,” Hynes said.

He said if the recovery continued to stall, “the market is likely to require sustained prices above $US100 to ration demand and prompt stock drawdowns”.

The price of oil has risen and fallen erratically since the US war with Iran began at the end of February, rising 64 per cent in March and peaking at $US118 a barrel.

The price has continued to fluctuate in line with escalations and de-escalations in the war and statements by US President Donald Trump.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off nearly a fifth of global oil flows, triggering supply shortages.

Brent crude was this morning trading at $US98.35 a barrel.

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