Global supply chains are facing an unprecedented period of sustained disruption, with new data revealing record levels of concern among procurement and supply chain professionals as geopolitical instability and rising costs reshape the outlook for manufacturers.
The latest quarterly survey from the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply (CIPS) shows short-term supply chain anxiety has climbed to 5.69, up sharply from 4.59 in Q4 2025, marking the highest level recorded to date. Medium-term concern has also reached a new peak of 5.64, rising from a previous high of 5.03.
Crucially, the near parity between short- and medium-term sentiment signals a structural shift. Historically, longer-term risks have outweighed immediate concerns, but the latest data suggests disruption is now seen as both immediate and entrenched—pointing to a more volatile and uncertain operating environment for manufacturers.
Geopolitical instability has overtaken traditional trade tensions as the primary driver of risk. Conflict in the Middle East was cited by 89% of respondents, while 67% pointed to broader geopolitical uncertainty and 28% to the war in Ukraine. Notably, US protectionism and US–China trade tensions have fallen out of the top three concerns for the first time in over a year.
Alongside rising instability, businesses are bracing for significant cost inflation across key categories. Nearly two-thirds (63%) of respondents expect price increases of more than 10% for petroleum, metal ores and mining products in the coming quarter. Shipping and logistics costs are expected to rise by over 10% for 58% of respondents, while 50% anticipate similar increases for chemicals and chemical products.
Additional pressures are building across materials and components critical to manufacturing, including rubber and plastics (48%), computers and electronics (38%), fabricated metals (36%) and transport equipment (34%).
In response, organisations are rapidly pivoting their supply chain strategies towards resilience. Supplier diversification emerged as the top priority, scoring 5.50 out of 6, followed by extending contracts (5.15) and increasing inventory buffers (5.06).
“Procurement and supply chain professionals are navigating an environment of relentless disruption, and what this data shows is that we are no longer dealing with isolated shocks, but a fundamental reshaping of global trade.”
– Ben Farrell, Global CEO of CIPS.
The findings point to a decisive shift away from cost-driven models towards securing supply continuity, as manufacturers adapt to what is increasingly seen as a prolonged period of global trade disruption.
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