According to the latest population projections from Eurostat, the EU population is expected to decline by 11.7% between 2025 and 2100. This translates to a predicted decrease of 53.0 million people in the EU by the start of the next century.

For Latvia, population decline is expected to occur at an even greater rate, underlining the demographic challenges the country faces.

In 2025, Latvia’s population was given as 1,860,565. By 2050 this number is expected to decline to a little over 1.5 million (1,535,556) and by the end of the century, Latvia will be home to just 1,229,162 souls, if Eurostat’s projections prove accurate – a reduction of 33.9% and proportionally the largest fall in the EU, ahead of Poland (-31.6%) and Lithuania (-33.4%).

EU population projections

EU population projections

Photo: Eurostat

Over the same period Lithuania’s population is expected to fall from 2.81 million in 2025 to 1.9 million (so about the the same size as the current Latvian population) in the year 2100, while Estonia’s head count will be slightly more stable, shrinking from the current 1.3 million to 1.1 million at century’s end.  

There will also be a relatively modest decline in the total number of people living in France and Austria, where the population is projected to contract by less than 5%. Declines of about 10% of the total population are projected for Germany, Slovenia, Finland and Czechia.

EU population, observed data (2001 - 2024) and projected data (2025 - 2100) (in millions, by major age groups). Chart. See link to the full dataset below.

In 2025, the EU population was estimated at 451.8 million, having resumed its growth trend in 2022, after the COVID-19 pandemic disruption in 2021. Looking ahead, the population is projected to continue to increase over the next 3 years, peaking at 453.3 million in 2029, before gradually declining to 398.8 million by 2100.

This information comes from the population projections published by Eurostat. The results are based on assumptions of partial convergence of EU countries’ fertility, mortality and migration patterns.

The EU’s population pyramid for 2025 shows a society with long life expectancy, low mortality and low birth rates. The population is predominantly composed of working-age people above 50, while the shares of young people under 20 are considerably smaller.

EU population pyramids, 2025 and 2100 (% of total population). Chart. See link to the full dataset below.

By 2100, the pyramid shows, there is a shift towards a shrinking population, with a growing share of people in older age groups and a declining young population and that of working age.

 

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