The longer-term range is $58.98 to $120.00. Its retracement zone at $89.49 to $82.29 provided support two weeks ago, stopping a steep price slide at $87.32.
This week, a sustained move over $105.29 will set a bullish tone this week with potential upside targets $114.72 and $120.00. A sustained move under $100.75 will signal the return of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for a possible retest of $89.49 to $82.29.
With the market clearly holding well above the 52-week moving average at $72.86, the market is likely to remain in buy the dip mode.
Supply Fear Drove the Move
Spot Brent crude oil opened the week just under $100 and the Hormuz headlines hit almost immediately. I’ve seen this market react to shipping risk before and the pattern never changes. Bids moved on the threat alone. Traders didn’t wait for a single barrel to go missing.
By Wednesday Brent was printing $105 to $107. The shipment delays had moved past rumor at that point. Tanker data was confirming it. Fewer vessels moving, cargoes backing up, prompt availability shrinking fast. Nobody wanted to be caught short with those numbers coming in. The front of the curve caught a bid and held it all week.
Friday’s close at $106.71 locked it in. This market buys lost barrels. Real or threatened, it doesn’t matter.