A review of Gov. Ron DeSantis’ proposed congressional map finds that it would protect current GOP incumbents and could lead to four more Republican seats.
A Republican analysis shared with Florida Politics suggests the map could add four more target districts in Florida for the national GOP in 2026. This is mainly based on how President Donald Trump performed in the 2024 election.
The analysis highlights the Democratic incumbents most at risk of losing their seats: U.S. Rep. Darren Soto in District 9, U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor in District 14, U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz in District 23, and U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz in District 25.
With the new map, each of these districts shifts from supporting Democrat Kamala Harris for President to now favoring Trump.
“When you run the 2024 results, there’s a clear path to flipping four Democrat seats; FL-09 goes from Harris +3.5 to Trump +17.8, FL-14 from Harris +7.7 to Trump +10.4, FL-22 from Harris +5.5 to Trump +10.7, and FL-25 from Harris +5.3 to Trump +9.3,” the analysis states.
It’s worth noting that both Soto and Moskowitz were already targets of the National Republican Congressional Committee before the new map was released.
The analysis also suggests that no current Republican incumbent would be at risk under the new map. All 20 Florida districts held by Republicans still show “double-digit Trump margins.”
Another conservative consultant previously found that any new map, whether aggressive or competitive, could not move many Democrats into battleground districts without also putting Republican incumbents at risk. This is mainly because current lawmakers benefit from incumbency.
But the new analysis states: “Republican incumbents in Florida have consistently outperformed the top of the ticket, giving additional cushion beyond the baseline.”
The analysis also notes that Florida Republicans are still gaining ground in voter registrations across the state.
“Florida’s trend line continues to move right; registration, turnout, and coalition shifts all reinforce the same trajectory,” the analysis states. “Democrats are left defending a shrinking map while Republicans are expanding it.”
Ultimately, the analysis concludes: “This map creates a clear pathway for a net GOP gain of four seats without jeopardizing any GOP-held seats.”