Is Early Iceland Restart And New U.S. Smelter Plan Altering The Investment Case For Century Aluminum (CENX)?

Century Aluminum recently restarted production several months early at the second potline of its Norðurál smelter in Grundartangi, Iceland, restoring a large portion of the plant’s capacity after transformer repairs and while awaiting permanent replacements this fall. This early restart, alongside its partnership with Emirates Global Aluminum to build the first new U.S. aluminum smelter in decades, signals a step-change in Century’s ability to supply low-carbon aluminum to industries such as electric vehicles and aerospace. We’ll now examine how the accelerated Iceland restart reshapes Century Aluminum’s existing investment narrative and its future capacity outlook.

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Century Aluminum Investment Narrative Recap

To own Century Aluminum, you need to believe the company can turn its growing, largely U.S. and Icelandic smelting footprint into durable, profitable demand for low carbon aluminum while managing policy, power and project risks. The accelerated Norðurál restart supports that core thesis by bringing a key asset back toward full output sooner, potentially easing near term operational risk, while leaving the biggest swing factor in the story U.S. trade and incentive policy and the execution on major growth projects.

The Norðurál restart also sits alongside Century’s push to expand Mt. Holly in South Carolina, where first hot metal was recently produced. Together, Iceland coming back online faster and Mt. Holly ramping production frame the near term capacity story ahead of the much larger, longer dated U.S. greenfield smelter with Emirates Global Aluminum, which could reshape Century’s profile if it progresses as planned and if power and policy support remain in place.

Yet investors should not overlook how reliant this setup may still be on existing tariffs and power contracts…

Read the full narrative on Century Aluminum (it’s free!)

Century Aluminum’s narrative projects $3.7 billion revenue and $1.2 billion earnings by 2029. This requires 13.1% yearly revenue growth and about a $1.2 billion earnings increase from $40.0 million today.

Uncover how Century Aluminum’s forecasts yield a $79.33 fair value, a 35% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other PerspectivesCENX 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Before this restart, the most cautious analysts already flagged Grundartangi’s outage as a key risk and still expected revenue to reach about US$3.3 billion by 2029, reminding you that opinions on Century’s path can differ sharply and may shift again as this latest news is fully reflected.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Century Aluminum – why the stock might be worth over 4x more than the current price!

Reach Your Own Conclusion

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data
and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your
financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.
Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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