Should the PM lose today’s vote but refuse to resign, it will be difficult to force him to do so
–
The political events of this week may test the uncodified (or “unwritten”) constitution of the United Kingdom, and even lead to a rare constitutional crisis.
The current prime minister, Boris Johnson, faces a vote of confidence today among Conservative members of parliament. This vote supposedly has no direct constitutional significance. This is because there is a distinction between the role of party leader of the largest group of members of parliament and that of prime minister. Generally the former will also be the latter, but the connection is not automatic and is capable of being dislocated in certain circumstances.
It is thereby possible for a prime minister not to be the leader of the governing party — or indeed of any party. In 1940, Winston Churchill became prime minister while Neville Chamberlain remained Tory party leader, and in 1995 the then premier John Major resigned as party leader to force a leadership election to take on his internal party critics.
The only person who can dismiss one prime minister and appoint another is the sovereign. The Queen (or King) will invite the person who can command a majority in the House of Commons to form the government, so that the business of government — finance bills and other important legislation — can be properly conducted. When there is an obvious defeat at a general election, the choice is straightforward.
But between general elections, or with a hung parliament where each party is in the minority, the situation is more complicated. And in practice, the monarch will expect members of parliament to sort the situation out themselves, with the prime minister being whoever can put together a majority.
The crown will not, however, intervene unless there is a clear replacement. The memory of what happened in the Australian constitutional crisis of 1975 still endures in Buckingham Palace. Then, a governor-general, acting with the Queen’s authority, proactively dismissed one prime minister and appointed another. Such was the controversial aftermath that any similar political interference would be most unlikely to happen again.
If Johnson wins today’s vote of confidence, even by one vote, there should be no immediate constitutional consequences. He will still be the leader of the party that won a substantial majority at the 2019 general election and, on the face of it, has the confidence of the Commons to carry on Her Majesty’s government. He will be exposed politically, but he will have the protection of the constitution.
But what happens if he loses today’s vote and then refuses to resign is less clear. Johnson did not step down after seeking to breach the very Brexit agreement he signed or receiving a fixed penalty for breaking the pandemic laws his government imposed. He may not voluntarily relinquish office.
If Johnson refused to resign the Queen would almost certainly not oblige him to do so. It would be seen as a party matter, and the presumption would be that he would continue as premier until and unless it was demonstrable that he did not command the support of the House of Commons.
This would require another vote of confidence by the House as a whole. And even if he were to lose that, Johnson could hang on and seek a general election. In 1979 the then Labour premier James Callaghan lost such a vote and went to the country for a fresh mandate.
But there is a plausible scenario in which Johnson loses today’s vote, refuses to resign as prime minister but uses the threat of a general election to evade a loss of confidence vote in the House of Commons. We would then be in a remarkable situation where Johnson knew the Queen would not sack him, his party would have no confidence in him but neither parliament nor the electorate would be able to force his departure.
We would then have a potential constitutional crisis — a serious situation without a predictable resolution. The politics of a defeat for Johnson today probably mean that he resigns the premiership voluntarily, averting this. But the sheer possibility of such a scenario is alarming — that we have a prime minister who would take the very constitution to the line to protect his own position.
*David Allen Green*
*The writer, a former government lawyer, is an FT contributing editor*
Monday June 6 2022
In case you thought you needed to ask:
>Talking to a Cabinet Minister recently about the Tory rebels trying to oust him Boris Johnson adopted his trademark narrow eyed steely glare and hissed: ‘They’ll need a flamethrower to get me out!’
>
>As the ‘partygate’ crisis has grown the Prime Minister has not flinched in his conviction that he can douse the political flames, according to some of those who know him best.
>
>‘His attitude is hunker down and it always blows over,’ said one. ‘His view is that all great Tory leaders, including Thatcher and Churchill, were written off countless times by pigmy Conservative enemies but ploughed on and won great victories. He thinks he can do the same.
>
>‘If you tell him something is impossible he will do it just to prove you wrong. He told me once “they said it was no longer possible for London to elect a Tory mayor, I did it twice; they said Brexit was impossible, I did it.”’ …
>
>([*Boris says Tory rebels ‘will need a flamethrower’ to get him out of No10 as he vows to cling on past tonight’s confidence vote to beat May’s tenure as PM*](https://archive.ph/zRrn0))
Sadly I suspect the chances of him actually losing the vote are low. The party is too spineless to do the right thing. Whether the damage caused by the vote itself will topple him in the longer term remains to be seen – but when you have a man that acts purely on self-presevation, all bets are off.
There no chance he loses anyway
Great, so the UK could have our very own ‘Trump moment’, wouldn’t that be lovely ><
I still think it’s unlikely that he’ll actually lose, given there’s no clear favourite to replace him, but I also see no circumstances where he’ll resign (he doesn’t have the integrity), so whatever happens today we’re going to be left with a very weak government until the next GE
we either get a PM who’s lost the support of a decent portion of his party, or tory infighting until a leader emerges… and while that’s going on the country is going through one of the worst crises it’s seen in decades… what a time to be alive :/
I really hope he looses by one single vote and then refuses to resign. I want to watch the Torry party self destruct
He isn’t going to loose as his party is full of cunts cut from the same cloth.
Not difficult then.
A vote by MPs to dissolve Parliament.
I can’t see any tory MP whose seat is at risk voting not to dissolve Parliament if Boris refuses to stand down as PM
He wont lose.
And if he does he wont resign.
> But there is a plausible scenario in which Johnson loses today’s vote, refuses to resign as prime minister but uses the threat of a general election to evade a loss of confidence vote in the House of Commons. We would then be in a remarkable situation where Johnson knew the Queen would not sack him, his party would have no confidence in him but neither parliament nor the electorate would be able to force his departure.
I think this scenario is unlikely.
(a) because Conservative MPs will know that the longer such a situation drags on, the worse the eventually electoral defeat will be,
(b) because no one in their right mind would serve in the Cabinet of a Prime Minister who clearly cannot control the party – it’d be career suicide and
(c) because losing a formal “vote of confidence” is not the only way in which it can be demonstrated that the Prime Minister no longer commands the confidence of the House of Commons, the severe loss of discipline in the parliamentary party which would follow losing a no confidence vote of the party, but opting to stay regardless, may lead the government to be unable to pass finance bills and other basics. This could serve as a basis for the sovereign to directly appoint the new leader of Conservative Party to replace Johnson as prime minister whether he resigns or not.
Not to be a doubting Thomas, but hasn’t the guy already tested, broken and then changed the constitution?
I’m going to get eviscorated for this but I want Boris to survive. Not because I think Boris is anything other than a lying, incompetent, corrupt egoist. It’s because I think the alternatives are worse. The likes of Truss, Raab or Gove running the show worry me far more than letting Boris remain where he is.
He pays very little attention to the rules that are written, so why would he give a fuck about the unwritten ones either?
Trying to make a story before there is one. If he looses the vote the chances he would try and remain are almost non-existent
You have to be quick before Boris changed the constitution by 20.00 o’clock tonight.
This is such nonsense.
If Boris goes dictator then all those Tories who voted against him would just side with Labour and make a *Parliamentary* vote of no confidence.
Parliament is the one with the power, not Boris.
People have to be delusional to think a majority of Tory MPs are going to allow Boris to ignore VONC.
Isn’t his whole remit to “test the unwritten constitution”?
This is literally what he has been doing since school but now we’re supposed to be shocked?
17 comments
Should the PM lose today’s vote but refuse to resign, it will be difficult to force him to do so
–
The political events of this week may test the uncodified (or “unwritten”) constitution of the United Kingdom, and even lead to a rare constitutional crisis.
The current prime minister, Boris Johnson, faces a vote of confidence today among Conservative members of parliament. This vote supposedly has no direct constitutional significance. This is because there is a distinction between the role of party leader of the largest group of members of parliament and that of prime minister. Generally the former will also be the latter, but the connection is not automatic and is capable of being dislocated in certain circumstances.
It is thereby possible for a prime minister not to be the leader of the governing party — or indeed of any party. In 1940, Winston Churchill became prime minister while Neville Chamberlain remained Tory party leader, and in 1995 the then premier John Major resigned as party leader to force a leadership election to take on his internal party critics.
The only person who can dismiss one prime minister and appoint another is the sovereign. The Queen (or King) will invite the person who can command a majority in the House of Commons to form the government, so that the business of government — finance bills and other important legislation — can be properly conducted. When there is an obvious defeat at a general election, the choice is straightforward.
But between general elections, or with a hung parliament where each party is in the minority, the situation is more complicated. And in practice, the monarch will expect members of parliament to sort the situation out themselves, with the prime minister being whoever can put together a majority.
The crown will not, however, intervene unless there is a clear replacement. The memory of what happened in the Australian constitutional crisis of 1975 still endures in Buckingham Palace. Then, a governor-general, acting with the Queen’s authority, proactively dismissed one prime minister and appointed another. Such was the controversial aftermath that any similar political interference would be most unlikely to happen again.
If Johnson wins today’s vote of confidence, even by one vote, there should be no immediate constitutional consequences. He will still be the leader of the party that won a substantial majority at the 2019 general election and, on the face of it, has the confidence of the Commons to carry on Her Majesty’s government. He will be exposed politically, but he will have the protection of the constitution.
But what happens if he loses today’s vote and then refuses to resign is less clear. Johnson did not step down after seeking to breach the very Brexit agreement he signed or receiving a fixed penalty for breaking the pandemic laws his government imposed. He may not voluntarily relinquish office.
If Johnson refused to resign the Queen would almost certainly not oblige him to do so. It would be seen as a party matter, and the presumption would be that he would continue as premier until and unless it was demonstrable that he did not command the support of the House of Commons.
This would require another vote of confidence by the House as a whole. And even if he were to lose that, Johnson could hang on and seek a general election. In 1979 the then Labour premier James Callaghan lost such a vote and went to the country for a fresh mandate.
But there is a plausible scenario in which Johnson loses today’s vote, refuses to resign as prime minister but uses the threat of a general election to evade a loss of confidence vote in the House of Commons. We would then be in a remarkable situation where Johnson knew the Queen would not sack him, his party would have no confidence in him but neither parliament nor the electorate would be able to force his departure.
We would then have a potential constitutional crisis — a serious situation without a predictable resolution. The politics of a defeat for Johnson today probably mean that he resigns the premiership voluntarily, averting this. But the sheer possibility of such a scenario is alarming — that we have a prime minister who would take the very constitution to the line to protect his own position.
*David Allen Green*
*The writer, a former government lawyer, is an FT contributing editor*
Monday June 6 2022
In case you thought you needed to ask:
>Talking to a Cabinet Minister recently about the Tory rebels trying to oust him Boris Johnson adopted his trademark narrow eyed steely glare and hissed: ‘They’ll need a flamethrower to get me out!’
>
>As the ‘partygate’ crisis has grown the Prime Minister has not flinched in his conviction that he can douse the political flames, according to some of those who know him best.
>
>‘His attitude is hunker down and it always blows over,’ said one. ‘His view is that all great Tory leaders, including Thatcher and Churchill, were written off countless times by pigmy Conservative enemies but ploughed on and won great victories. He thinks he can do the same.
>
>‘If you tell him something is impossible he will do it just to prove you wrong. He told me once “they said it was no longer possible for London to elect a Tory mayor, I did it twice; they said Brexit was impossible, I did it.”’ …
>
>([*Boris says Tory rebels ‘will need a flamethrower’ to get him out of No10 as he vows to cling on past tonight’s confidence vote to beat May’s tenure as PM*](https://archive.ph/zRrn0))
Sadly I suspect the chances of him actually losing the vote are low. The party is too spineless to do the right thing. Whether the damage caused by the vote itself will topple him in the longer term remains to be seen – but when you have a man that acts purely on self-presevation, all bets are off.
There no chance he loses anyway
Great, so the UK could have our very own ‘Trump moment’, wouldn’t that be lovely ><
I still think it’s unlikely that he’ll actually lose, given there’s no clear favourite to replace him, but I also see no circumstances where he’ll resign (he doesn’t have the integrity), so whatever happens today we’re going to be left with a very weak government until the next GE
we either get a PM who’s lost the support of a decent portion of his party, or tory infighting until a leader emerges… and while that’s going on the country is going through one of the worst crises it’s seen in decades… what a time to be alive :/
I really hope he looses by one single vote and then refuses to resign. I want to watch the Torry party self destruct
He isn’t going to loose as his party is full of cunts cut from the same cloth.
Not difficult then.
A vote by MPs to dissolve Parliament.
I can’t see any tory MP whose seat is at risk voting not to dissolve Parliament if Boris refuses to stand down as PM
He wont lose.
And if he does he wont resign.
> But there is a plausible scenario in which Johnson loses today’s vote, refuses to resign as prime minister but uses the threat of a general election to evade a loss of confidence vote in the House of Commons. We would then be in a remarkable situation where Johnson knew the Queen would not sack him, his party would have no confidence in him but neither parliament nor the electorate would be able to force his departure.
I think this scenario is unlikely.
(a) because Conservative MPs will know that the longer such a situation drags on, the worse the eventually electoral defeat will be,
(b) because no one in their right mind would serve in the Cabinet of a Prime Minister who clearly cannot control the party – it’d be career suicide and
(c) because losing a formal “vote of confidence” is not the only way in which it can be demonstrated that the Prime Minister no longer commands the confidence of the House of Commons, the severe loss of discipline in the parliamentary party which would follow losing a no confidence vote of the party, but opting to stay regardless, may lead the government to be unable to pass finance bills and other basics. This could serve as a basis for the sovereign to directly appoint the new leader of Conservative Party to replace Johnson as prime minister whether he resigns or not.
Not to be a doubting Thomas, but hasn’t the guy already tested, broken and then changed the constitution?
I’m going to get eviscorated for this but I want Boris to survive. Not because I think Boris is anything other than a lying, incompetent, corrupt egoist. It’s because I think the alternatives are worse. The likes of Truss, Raab or Gove running the show worry me far more than letting Boris remain where he is.
He pays very little attention to the rules that are written, so why would he give a fuck about the unwritten ones either?
Trying to make a story before there is one. If he looses the vote the chances he would try and remain are almost non-existent
You have to be quick before Boris changed the constitution by 20.00 o’clock tonight.
This is such nonsense.
If Boris goes dictator then all those Tories who voted against him would just side with Labour and make a *Parliamentary* vote of no confidence.
Parliament is the one with the power, not Boris.
People have to be delusional to think a majority of Tory MPs are going to allow Boris to ignore VONC.
Isn’t his whole remit to “test the unwritten constitution”?
This is literally what he has been doing since school but now we’re supposed to be shocked?