A senior Estonian commander warns of renewed Russian aggression risks after the Ukraine war, pointing to 2027 as a potential peak year for readiness.
Estonia’s Chief of Defence, Andrus Merilo, warns of a possible new Russian aggression after the war with Ukraine ends, noting that the most likely peak could occur around 2027.
His view is expressed in a column examining the international situation and its consequences for the region. The author also notes that it is impossible to expect the war in Ukraine to end in a way that Russia ceases to be a threat to the Baltic states.
“It is possible to forecast that the war in Ukraine will not end with Russia being rendered unable to act against us”
– Andrus Merilo
According to Merilo, Russia’s economy is now fully shifted onto a military track, with a sizable army and leadership whose stability depends on keeping society in a state of war. He also points to imperial ambitions and their potential impact on the region.
“This means that Russia will restore its combat-readiness after it leaves the war against Ukraine. At the same time, it is actively conducting intelligence gathering and preparing new targets with destabilizing actions. In my view, 2027 is the year when Russia may regain its combat capability, and if it senses an opportunity to use force somewhere else, it will do so”
– Andrus Merilo
How Estonia Plans to Respond to Possible Scenarios
In his publication, Merilo expresses his views on steps that could bolster the country’s defense capability. In particular, there are references to bills that simplify attracting new unmanned aerial vehicles and creating a multi-layered system for countering drones. It is also noted that in April 2026 intelligence did not see an open threat of a new Russian front in the Baltic states.
The text emphasizes the importance of coordinating with allies and strengthening defense capabilities as deterrence. Experts stress the need to maintain readiness for various scenarios and to continue modernizing the arsenal.
According to analysts, the situation in the region remains relatively stable, but the risk of destabilizing actions by Russia is rising. This requires constant attention and a coordinated response from partner countries.