On Monday, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) came under a renewed wave of
Iranian missile and drone attacks targeting critical energy infrastructure, particularly around Fujairah and Abu Dhabi, following US strikes on Iranian assets. Emirati air defence systems
intercepted multiple incoming threats, including ballistic and cruise missiles, even as a drone strike triggered a fire at the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, a key energy hub on the country’s eastern coast. The attacks caused ‘significant disruption’, injuries and widespread alarm, with emergency alerts issued across major cities such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

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The UAE authorities strongly condemned the strikes, calling them a ‘dangerous escalation’ and a direct threat to national security, and said they reserve the full and legitimate right to respond. Reports also suggest that Tehran allegedly
boasted to Saudi Arabia and Oman about the attacks on the UAE, in an apparent attempt to take advantage of existing Gulf divisions. Taken together, these developments point to a rapid rise in regional tensions and underline how urgently the UAE may need to accelerate its security planning and strategic decision-making.

Prior to the latest escalation, the UAE
withdrew from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) effective May 1, citing a shift towards national energy autonomy, expanded production capacity, and greater flexibility in hydrocarbons policy no longer bound by collective output quotas. The state news agency, Emirates, pointed to a long-term economic vision amid a global oil price shock linked to the Iran war. While structural planning remains the core driver, the conflict and price volatility have reinforced the timing and urgency of the move.

These developments fit a broader trajectory in which Abu Dhabi is finding it necessary to assert an independent foreign policy beyond the Saudi-led
traditional Gulf order, shaping its
own sphere of influence while safeguarding national security in a fractured regional environment.

Emirati President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan’s vision remains centred on “improving quality of life for humanity and envisioning a better world for all” — a formulation often described by scholars as “appreciatively inclusive” in its global outlook. His approach reflects a distinctly modern Gulf model, positioning the UAE as an
emerging middle power with widening international engagement rather than seeking ideological or civilisational leadership.

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In contrast to Saudi Arabia’s ‘custodianship’ of the Two Holy Mosques, Turkey’s ‘neo-Ottomanism’ under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, or Pakistan’s claim to being the only Muslim nuclear power, the UAE under MBZ projects influence through economic diplomacy, investment strategy, and soft power rather than religious or symbolic narratives. This reflects a distinct international identity rooted in connectivity, stability, and development-oriented partnerships rather than competition for regional leadership.

As former diplomat Anil Trigunayat noted in his
_Firstpost_ article, “The UAE has tried to become a leader in diversification from energy to innovation to religious tenets to geopolitics. Inclusivity with the rest of the world has also become its trademark, while its joint projects with Israel and the USA and positions in Yemen, Sudan, Somaliland and Ethiopia have caused a split with the Saudis.”

This can be read alongside Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s remarks on the UAE’s exit from OPEC, in which he stated: “The greatest achievement of the war has been our geopolitical space, which is much stronger and has strengthened our position. Now, as a regional power, we will develop a lot, both security- and economy-wise. I don’t know where Saudi Arabia will be, but their Vision 2030 plan is basically at a dead end.”

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Many experts argue that the Iran war has reinforced the self-help principle of realpolitik in the Gulf theatre, as Arab unity appeared to fracture when Iranian strikes failed to elicit a coordinated regional response. It has also exposed the limitations of security guarantees anchored in American military bases, raising questions about their deterrent reliability in moments of escalation. At the same time, it has further weakened absolutist narratives of unity — whether the Sunni Arab bloc that Riyadh claims to lead or the broader notion of a unified Muslim ummah, of which even Iran is a part — highlighting instead a region increasingly shaped by fragmented alignments and shifting strategic calculations.

Apparently, the Emiratis anticipated this trajectory early, whether through developing Dubai as a ‘global city’ of trade, finance and tourism, becoming among the first nations to join
the Abraham Accords with Israel (mediated by US President Donald Trump in his first term), or deepening ties with India.

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It also reflects a broader pattern of
multi-alignment, with expanding engagement across the US, China, and major Asian economies, while avoiding dependence on any single power centre. Taken together, these moves underline Abu Dhabi’s long-term strategy of spreading risk, maximising connectivity, and embedding itself within overlapping networks.

It has also demonstrated a strong sense of timing. With oil prices reaching record levels — Brent crude hovering around $108 on Monday and peaking at $126 in late April, up from $58 last May — Abu Dhabi appears alert to shifting global conditions. Higher output could help stabilise markets, offer relief to emerging economies, and open alternative supply routes amid constraints on Russian crude due to sanctions and geopolitical pressure, though often still partially accommodated to ease global strain. The outcome remains mutually beneficial for producers and consumers alike.

A reason Trump welcomed the UAE’s exit: “I think that’s great. I know Muhammed very well — he is very smart. He probably wants to go his own way. It is a good thing for getting the price of gas down, getting everything down.”

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At a time when Pakistanis offered a
‘nuclear umbrella’ to the Saudis and aspired to build an
‘Islamic NATO’, the UAE’s
pivot towards India, demands for
loan repayments
from Pakistan, and adoption of
Israeli Iron Dome reflect a clear preference for pragmatic alignment, economic expansion, and durable partnerships over ideological positioning.

This approach is further evident, as aforesaid, in praise from Israeli officials and the American President for Abu Dhabi’s global posture, alongside reciprocal visits between MBZ and Prime Minister Narendra Modi (between 2024 and early 2026), even as MBZ concluded a
visit to Russia last January.

The Moscow meeting followed Abu Dhabi’s hosting of the first round of trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the US from January 23–24, 2026, which underscored the UAE’s growing role as a “trusted mediator in global conflicts”, while bilateral engagement with Moscow focused on strengthening ties and expanding cooperation in trade, investment, technology, space, and energy. On cooperation with Ukraine, there is already enough evidence that Kyiv is providing support to the UAE through
counter-drone and air-defence technologies to defend against Iranian strikes.

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One can hardly deny that the spectrum of Abu Dhabi’s outreach appears wide and diversified, driven by calculation rather than rigidity. It effectively addresses immediate security imperatives, structural constraints, strategic options, and long-term economic growth. It indeed deserves credit for shaping such an outlook under the leadership and vision of President MBZ, and, hopefully, it will secure both the security and prosperity of the nation.

First Published:
May 05, 2026, 09:06 IST

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