This interesting document hasn’t been well covered in the press, hence the self-post.

Surfaced [by Adam Payne on twitter](https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1533476836860170250/) it can be seen in image form [here](https://nitter.net/pic/orig/media%2FFUgBDNRWAAUGWqy.jpg).

According to Payne:

> Tory MPs who want Johnson out have this weekend been circulating a briefing document setting out why. It warns the party is on course to lose the next election & concludes “the only way to end this misery, earn a hearing from the British public… is to remove Boris Johnson as PM”

Below is a transcript, from one posted on a different sub. I’ve taken the liberty of numbering the bullet points for easier discussion should anyone be so inclined.

___

#PARTY LEADERSHIP

1) **Boris Johnson is no longer an electoral asset and, if left in post, will lead the Party to a substantial defeat in 2024.** He will lose Red Wall seats (with majorities under 10,000) to Labour, and Blue Wall seats (majorities up to 20,000) to the Liberal Democrats. At least 160 MPs are at risk (all majorities under 10k, and LD-facing majorities under 20k). Furthermore, tactical voting, so devastating in 1997, is returning and could turn a defeat into a landslide.

2) **Partygate, and the Prime Minister’s denials of it in the House of Commons, represent a major breach of trust with the British population, including 2019 Conservatives, many of whom have abandoned the party already.** Boris Johnson cannot win their trust back, and they will discount anything a Government led by him promises.

3) **Partygate is not going away. Allegations of a birthday party – hitherto uninvestigated – in the flat on June 19, 2020 have not been denied by Downing Street.** And the “Abba party” of November 13, 2020 was not fully investigated by Sue Gray. The Privileges Committee will want to examine both events, and may demand that Boris Johnson, Carrie Johnson, Sue Gray and No 10 staff give evidence to them.

4) **The entire purpose of the Government now appears to be the sustenance of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister.** MPs are having to defend the indefensible, not for the sake of the party, but for one man. He is the only Minister given negative ratings by activists in the ConHome ratings (link), meaning he is dragging everyone else down.

**_Electoral Considerations:_**

5) **Our last lead in the polls was on 6^^th December, a week after the initial Partygate stories broke.** We are now an average of 8% down. We won the last election by 11.8% (GB) so this represents a 10% swing against us. (link)

6) **27% of current Conservative voters think the PM should resign,** indicating there is potential for a further fall in our polling position. **51% of current Conservative voters think the PM knowingly lied about breaking lockdown rules.** (link)

7) **The booing of Boris Johnson at the Jubilee Thanksgiving service tells us nothing that data does not.** There is no social group that trusts him, with even 55% of current Conservatives calling him untrustworthy, against only 25% saying he is trustworthy. (link)

8) **The damage done to trust in Boris Johnson is such that popular policies are falling flat with the public (e.g. cost-of-living measures).** A pollster has dubbed him the “Conservative Corbyn” because of this. (link)

9) **The recent YouGov MRP poll (link) showed us losing 85 of 88 Labour-facing seats at the next election.** Bookmakers expect us to lose the Red Wall seat of Wakefield (maj 3.358) comfortably.

10) **Facing the Lib Dems, we have already lost Chesham & Amersham (maj 16,223) on a 25.2% swing and North Shropshire (maj 22,949) on a 34.2% swing.** North Shropshire was the seventh-worst by-election swing since the war – only Christchurch was bigger in the 1992-97 Parliament (link). Bookmakers also expect Tiverton & Honiton (maj 24,239) to follow.

11) **This situation is not comparable to the “mid-term blues” in the 2010-15 Parliament.** There are very few votes on our right to squeeze (unlike e.g. 2013, where UKIP polled into the 20s at times, link). The polls in 2010-15 were also shown to be wrong following an inquiry after the 2015 election.

**_Risk of an early General Election:_**

12) **Should Boris Johnson win a vote of no confidence, but only narrowly, his authority within the Commons and the Parliamentary Party would be destroyed.** Most Prime Ministers would resign; however it has been suggested (link) that he would consider calling an early General Election (despite the obvious electoral risk) as the only way to restore his personal mandate. This would put MPs in marginal seats at risk.

**_Privileges Committee:_**

13) **The Partygate story will continue to be played out over the summer, with reports suggesting the Privileges Committee may not report until October** (link), overshadowing our conference and ensuring Ministers and MPs continue to face questions on this subject for months. The four Conservative MPs on the Committee – and the integrity of all of them is beyond question – have been placed in a very difficult position.

14) **The only way to end this misery, earn a hearing from the British public, and restore Conservative fortunes to a point where we can win the next General Election, is to _remove Boris Johnson as Prime Minister_.**

___

Addenda:

Some coverage has appeared:

• [Tory memo lists reasons to ditch Boris Johnson](https://archive.ph/U1E0C) (Times)
• [Tories panic at prospect of Johnson leading them to landslide defeat](https://eastangliabylines.co.uk/tories-panic-at-prospect-of-johnson-leading-them-to-landslide-defeat/) (East Anglia Bylines)
• [Fury over rebels’ dossier of doom: Passed around on WhatsApp over Jubilee weekend, the file saying Boris Johnson is ‘no longer an electoral asset’](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10887337/Tory-rebels-dossier-doom-saying-Boris-Johnson-no-longer-electoral-asset-circulated.html) (Mail)
* [The excoriating memo spreading like wildfire on Tory WhatsApp groups that damned Boris Johnson](https://archive.ph/fT05w) (Telegraph)

Also, interesting from [ Joe Armitage](https://nitter.net/joe_armitage/status/1533571955827302400):

> The Tory rebels have either: 1) deliberately attempted to use the Conservative HQ document format for their dossier (see example below) OR 2) somebody in Conservative HQ has gone rogue and is conducting the research and writing it for them.

> [\[image\]](https://nitter.net/pic/orig/media%2FFUhXkGeWYAYH93R.jpg)

21 comments

  2. I’m genuinely interested to hear if there has ever been such a turbulent time in British politics?

    We’ve had more PMs in recent years than we had in the whole of my life before that. Or at least it feels that way.

  3. There is a lot going wrong with the country  at this moment,
    well a lot a wealthy family will not be aware of, but the
    preoccupation of the ruling party is “this  leader is not
    going to keep us employed”, not the problems that are
    hurting people and trade while dragging the country down……

    thats not worth any vote.

  4. The international cartel of wealthy capitalists who control the Conservative party are willing to tank it for the next election if they can continue to push through economic reforms that will strip the country and it’s people of all wealth, rights and public resources. By 2024 the NHS will be a shell that is used only to extract profit for private providers and standards will be at rock bottom.

    Starmer is a perfect follow-up act because he’s just as compliant, he wont have the mandate or the bollocks to reverse the damage Boris has done and his Starmoid followers in the media will aggressively attack anyone who dare hurt Labor’s ‘electability’ by fairly criticising his government.

    Or not as likely Boris has too much ego to give up the post, does a Trump and things just go completely off the rails.

  5. Boris is the public face of the problem and an obvious candidate for blame.

    But in reality he is just a symptom, The Conservative Party is the problem. Once Boris is gone about 15 other people also need removing, Starting with pretty much everybody on the The 1922 Committee.

  6. The blob’s team don’t reckon it i looking to good for him either:

    >Government whips have been “scrambling to attack” Tory rebels with threats and blackmail in a desperate bid to save Boris Johnson over fears he will face a confidence vote this week..
    >
    >Mutinous backbenchers are growing more confident that they have the numbers to force a vote on the Prime Minister’s leadership as soon as this Wednesday.
    >
    >But MPs have complained that they are being targeted with attacks by government whips as well as ministers involved in the so-called “save big dog operation”.
    >
    >This has included hostile briefings to the press, as well as blackmail in a bid to intimidate MPs against submitting letters of no confidence in Mr Johnson, backbenchers told i.
    >
    >One senior Tory described the threats as “horrific”, while another said whips and loyalists to the PM have been “scrambling to attack” amid mounting fears that the threshold for no confidence letters has been met.
    >
    >The senior source told i: “I’ve had several from the 2019 intake come to me saying they’ve been too afraid to submit a letter in case the whips find out and begin intimidating them. They’re really petrified. I told them to give their letters to me, and I’ll gladly hand them over.” …
    >
    >[iNews: No 10 whips ‘scrambling to attack’ Tory rebels over fears of confidence vote in Boris Johnson this week](https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/no-10-whips-scrambling-attack-tory-rebels-confidence-vote-boris-johnson-1670443)

    –

    Plus

    Adam Payne’s article on your notes:

    >[Politics Home: Tory Rebels Warn Party Faces “Substantial” Election Defeat Under Boris Johnson In Leaked Document](https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/tory-briefing-note-no-confidence-boris-johnson)
    >
    >A briefing note being shared among Conservative MPs who want to oust Boris Johnson warns that he is no longer an “electoral asset” and is leading the party to a “substantial defeat” at the next general election.

  7. I can just imagine Schapps/Gove/Dorris et al. being rolled out to news shows desperately trying to remember their scripts in an attempt to head this off and defend Boris.

  11. The issue with this briefing document for Conservative MP’s who are trying to get Boris out as leader, is it doesn’t deal with the real issues facing his removal. I suggest they would have been better addressing the following points:

    1. Who, if they have any, are their proposed replacements for Boris as leader? Is there any form of consensus or even a candidate list, in either the Parliamentary party or the Conservative Associations?

    2. If they vote no confidence, they will force a general election, how will any of the MP’s expect to win that general election based off these polling numbers? Would any new leader amongst their MP’s command that much extra support with the public than Boris? Seeing as Boris had a large amount of personal popularity when he was elected, have half those seats already gone no matter what they do now?

    3. Somehow they have to convince a large amount of their majority to vote against him. As they have stated Northern and Southern seats are under threat. So will the MP’s from those seats vote to lose their jobs as an election will be triggered?

    4. If Boris loses the no confidence vote will he even resign as party leader or will he contest the leadership election? Just for example when Thatcher was took down, she pulled out of the election, after it became clear in the first round she wasn’t going to win automatically as she couldn’t command a majority in the subsequent 2 rounds. I cannot see Boris stepping aside in the same way. If they succeed and there is a leadership election can they stop him from winning? Do they have another candidate who polls high enough in the Associations to beat him?

    5. What, if any, insurance do these rebels have that Boris won’t immediately de select them when the next election is called? Following the voting down of Brexit he booted 20-30 remainer MP’s out of the party (like Nicholas Soames) and didn’t let some of them back in. Called an election and put new candidates in their seats.

    Until these questions are properly answered, it seems very unlikely to me that this no confidence vote will be successful and all they will achieve by calling it, is to ensure Boris can’t be voted out for 12 months.

  12. Interesting how none of the document even makes reference to capability to do the job of actually running the country, statesmanship or anything to do with competence. It’s all “shit some of us might lose our places at the trough and we don’t want that”.

  14. Remember that the entire party is rotten.

    It has taken a small proportion of Tory MPs weeks to start to make any movements.

    They aren’t reacting with disgust at Partygate. For them it’s all priced in, and OK if their side gets away with it.

    They’re only moving now because it’s become evident Boris hasn’t gotten away with it, and they fear for their own massively paid careers.

    But these MPs were still all happy to support a known liar for months.

    They ignored blatant evidence of the PMs misconduct for months.

    None of these MPs are fit to lead the Country because they’ve all been shown to be willing to put ideology before evidence based policy making.

  15. As said already, the whole Tory Party is rotten to the core. Ousting Johnson is a good thing for the country in the short term, but long term the whole party needs destroying.

    Whilst this is an internal briefing note, it shows that venal self-interest is all that matters. Nothing in it about removing Johnson to make the country better, just how to try and save their jobs.

    This week should be an interesting one.

  16. No mention of the morally abhorrent behaviour. Just hand wringing to cling on to power. The whole shower of shit that is the conservative party has to go.

  17. So, in short, more than happy to support a lying, corrupt and incompetent as the PM all the while their cushy job is safe. The moment it looks a bit precarious, throw him under the bus.

    It’s the tory way.

    Don’t let them get away with it.

    Johnson isn’t the problem, he’s just the symptom of a long broken political party with too much control over the media. It’s worthy of note, that of all the points mentioned, there wasn’t any word of the moral failures, or the economic failures, the fact that they pulled us out of agreements with our nearest neighbours, the 500 million spent on covering it up etc…this speaks volumes about the entire party.

    It was all about clinging on to power.

  20. The question is, if he’s voted out, which of the remaining shower of sh*te would be voted leader? The Haunted Pencil? Prittler? Prosecco Patty? Dom the Dumb?

  21. I find what’s missing from this list the most telling about the Conservative MPs.

    There is not a word about his betrayal of the good will of the British people in the pandemic. Nor is there anything about his failure to uphold the standards of parliament and public life.

    It’s only about election losses and the risk to them as MPs that their snouts are going to be slapped out of the trough.

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