Flores, B. M. et al. Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system. Nature 626, 555–564 (2024).
Lovejoy, T. E. & Nobre, C. Amazon tipping point. Sci. Adv. 4, eaat2340 (2018).
Lovejoy, T. E. & Nobre, C. Amazon tipping point: last chance for action. Sci. Adv. 5, eaba2949 (2019).
Brando, P. M. et al. Tipping points of Amazonian forests: beyond myths and toward solutions. Ann. Rev. Environ. Resour. 50, 97–131 (2025).
Staal, A., Meijer, P., Nyasulu, M. K., Tuinenburg, O. A. & Dekker, S. C. Global terrestrial moisture recycling in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Earth Syst. Dyn. 16, 215–238 (2025).
Díaz, S. et al. (eds) Summary for Policymakers of the Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES, 2019).
Rocha, J. C. Ecosystems are showing symptoms of resilience loss. Environ. Res. Lett. 17, 065013 (2022).
Boulton, C. A., Lenton, T. M. & Boers, N. Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s. Nat. Clim. Change 12, 271–278 (2022).
Lapola, D. M. et al. The drivers and impacts of Amazon forest degradation. Science 379, eabp8622 (2023).
Ribeiro, G. et al. Attributing the 2015/2016 Amazon basin drought to anthropogenic influence. Clim. Resil. Sustain. 1, e25 (2022).
Barlow, J. et al. Anthropogenic disturbance in tropical forests can double biodiversity loss from deforestation. Nature 535, 144–147 (2016).
Nobre, C. A. et al. Land-use and climate change risks in the Amazon and the need of a novel sustainable development paradigm. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 113, 10759–10768 (2016).
Fu, R. et al. Increased dry-season length over southern Amazonia in recent decades and its implication for future climate projection. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110, 18110–18115 (2013).
Foley, J. A. et al. Amazonia revealed: forest degradation and loss of ecosystem goods and services in the Amazon Basin. Front. Ecol. Environ. 5, 25–32 (2007).
Albert, J. S. et al. Human impacts outpace natural processes in the Amazon. Science 379, eabo5003 (2023).
Gatti, L. V. et al. Increased Amazon carbon emissions mainly from decline in law enforcement. Nature 621, 318–323 (2023).
Gatti, L. V. et al. Amazonia as a carbon source linked to deforestation and climate change. Nature 595, 388–393 (2021).
Brienen, R. J. et al. Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink. Nature 519, 344–348 (2015).
Staal, A., Dekker, S. C., Hirota, M. & van Nes, E. H. Synergistic effects of drought and deforestation on the resilience of the south-eastern Amazon rainforest. Ecol. Complex. 22, 65–75 (2015).
Armstrong McKay, D. I. et al. Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points. Science 377, eabn7950 (2022).
Lenton, T. M. et al. (eds) The Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (Univ. of Exeter, 2025).
Drijfhout, S. et al. Catalogue of abrupt shifts in intergovernmental panel on climate change climate models. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 112, E5777–E5786 (2015).
Salazar, L. F. & Nobre, C. A. Climate change and thresholds of biome shifts in Amazonia. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37, L17706 (2010).
Malhi, Y. et al. Exploring the likelihood and mechanism of a climate-change-induced dieback of the Amazon rainforest. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 20610–20615 (2009).
Jones, C., Lowe, J., Liddicoat, S. & Betts, R. Committed terrestrial ecosystem changes due to climate change. Nat. Geosci. 2, 484–487 (2009).
Cox, P. M. et al. Amazonian forest dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 78, 137–156 (2004).
Parry, I. M., Ritchie, P. D. & Cox, P. M. Evidence of localised Amazon rainforest dieback in CMIP6 models. Earth Syst. Dyn. 13, 1667–1675 (2022).
Cano, I. M. et al. Abrupt loss and uncertain recovery from fires of Amazon forests under low climate mitigation scenarios. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 119, e2203200119 (2022).
Singh, C., van der Ent, R., Fetzer, I. & Wang-Erlandsson, L. Multi-fold increase in rainforest tipping risk beyond 1.5–2°C warming. Earth Syst. Dyn. 15, 1543–1565 (2024).
Bultan, S. et al. Amazon forest faces severe decline under the dual pressures of anthropogenic climate change and land-use change. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci USA 122, e2418813122 (2025).
Gimeno, L. et al. Oceanic and terrestrial sources of continental precipitation. Rev. Geophys. 50, RG4003 (2012).
Sorí, R., Nieto, R., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Drumond, A. & Gimeno, L. A lagrangian perspective of the hydrological cycle in the congo river basin. Earth Syst. Dyn. 8, 653–675 (2017).
Salati, E. & Vose, P. B. Amazon basin: a system in equilibrium. Science 225, 129–138 (1984).
Aragão, L. E. The rainforest’s water pump. Nature 489, 217–218 (2012).
Staal, A. et al. Forest-rainfall cascades buffer against drought across the Amazon. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 539–543 (2018).
Spracklen, D. V., Arnold, S. R. & Taylor, C. Observations of increased tropical rainfall preceded by air passage over forests. Nature 489, 282–285 (2012).
Tuinenburg, O. A., Theeuwen, J. J. & Staal, A. High-resolution global atmospheric moisture connections from evaporation to precipitation. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 12, 3177–3188 (2020).
Kunert, N. et al. A revised hydrological model for the central amazon: the importance of emergent canopy trees in the forest water budget. Agric. Forest Meteorol. 239, 47–57 (2017).
Wright, J. S. et al. Rainforest-initiated wet season onset over the southern Amazon. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 114, 8481–8486 (2017).
Liu, Y. et al. Recent forest loss in the Brazilian Amazon causes substantial reductions in dry season precipitation. AGU Adv. 6, e2025AV001670 (2025).
Staal, A. et al. Feedback between drought and deforestation in the Amazon. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 044024 (2020).
Zemp, D. C. et al. Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks. Nat. Commun. 8, 14681 (2017).
Ruiz-Vásquez, M., Arias, P. A., Martínez, J. A. & Espinoza, J. C. Effects of Amazon basin deforestation on regional atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport towards tropical South America. Clim. Dyn. 54, 4169–4189 (2020).
Riahi, K. et al. The shared socioeconomic pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: an overview. Glob. Environ. Change 42, 153–168 (2017).
Wunderling, N. et al. Recurrent droughts increase risk of cascading tipping events by outpacing adaptive capacities in the Amazon rainforest. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci USA 119, e2120777119 (2022).
Lewis, S. L., Brando, P. M., Phillips, O. L., van der Heijden, G. M. & Nepstad, D. The 2010 Amazon drought. Science 331, 554–554 (2011).
Anderson, L. O. et al. Vulnerability of Amazonian forests to repeated droughts. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B 373, 20170411 (2018).
Panisset, J. S., Libonati, R. & Gouveia, C. M. P. Contrasting patterns of the extreme drought episodes of 2005. Int. J. Climatol. 38, 1096–1104 (2018).
Cook, B. et al. Twenty-first century drought projections in the CMIP6 forcing scenarios. Earth’s Future 8, e2019EF001461 (2020).
Espinoza, J.-C. et al. The new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features. Sci. Rep. 14, 8107 (2024).
Marengo, J. A. et al. The drought of Amazonia in 2023-2024. Am. J. Clim. Change 13, 567–597 (2024).
Papastefanou, P. et al. Simulated sensitivity of the Amazon rainforest to extreme drought. Environ. Res. Lett. 19, 124072 (2024).
Tavares, J. V. et al. Basin-wide variation in tree hydraulic safety margins predicts the carbon balance of Amazon forests. Nature 617, 111–117 (2023).
Oliveira, R. S. et al. Linking plant hydraulics and the fast-slow continuum to understand resilience to drought in tropical ecosystems. N. Phytol. 230, 904–923 (2021).
Sakschewski, B. et al. Variable tree rooting strategies are key for modelling the distribution, productivity and evapotranspiration of tropical evergreen forests. Biogeosciences 18, 4091–4116 (2021).
Sakschewski, B. et al. Resilience of Amazon forests emerges from plant trait diversity. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 1032–1036 (2016).
Singh, C., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Fetzer, I., Rockström, J. & van der Ent, R. Rootzone storage capacity reveals drought coping strategies along rainforest-savanna transitions. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 124021 (2020).
Choat, B. et al. Global convergence in the vulnerability of forests to drought. Nature 491, 752–755 (2012).
Esquivel-Muelbert, A. et al. Tree mode of death and mortality risk factors across Amazon forests. Nat. Commun. 11, 5515 (2020).
Veldman, J. W. & Putz, F. E. Grass-dominated vegetation, not species-diverse natural savanna, replaces degraded tropical forests on the southern edge of the Amazon Basin. Biol. Conserv. 144, 1419–1429 (2011).
Silvério, D. V. et al. Testing the Amazon savannization hypothesis: fire effects on invasion of a neotropical forest by native cerrado and exotic pasture grasses. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B 368, 20120427 (2013).
Silvério, D. V. et al. Intensification of fire regimes and forest loss in the Território Indígena do Xingu. Environ. Res. Lett. 17, 045012 (2022).
Hirota, M., Holmgren, M., Van Nes, E. H. & Scheffer, M. Global resilience of tropical forest and savanna to critical transitions. Science 334, 232–235 (2011).
Staver, A. C., Archibald, S. & Levin, S. A. The global extent and determinants of savanna and forest as alternative biome states. Science 334, 230–232 (2011).
Sanchez-Martinez, P. et al. Amazon rainforest adjusts to long-term experimental drought. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 9, 970–979 (2025).
Rowland, L. et al. Death from drought in tropical forests is triggered by hydraulics not carbon starvation. Nature 528, 119–122 (2015).
Meir, P. et al. Threshold responses to soil moisture deficit by trees and soil in tropical rain forests: insights from field experiments. BioScience 65, 882–892 (2015).
Wunderling, N. et al. Modelling nonlinear dynamics of interacting tipping elements on complex networks: the PyCascades package. Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top. 230, 3163–3176 (2021).
Brando, P. M. et al. The gathering firestorm in southern Amazonia. Sci. Adv. 6, eaay1632 (2020).
Soares-Filho, B. et al. LBA-ECO LC-14 Modeled Deforestation Scenarios, Amazon Basin: 2002-2050 (Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center, 2013); https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1153.
Bochow, N. & Boers, N. The South American monsoon approaches a critical transition in response to deforestation. Sci. Adv. 9, eadd9973 (2023).
Hajdu, L. H., Meesters, A. G., Dolman, A. J. & Friend, A. D. Deforestation could push Amazonia close to a tipping point under future climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett. 52, e2024GL108304 (2025).
Boers, N., Marwan, N., Barbosa, H. M. & Kurths, J. A deforestation-induced tipping point for the South American monsoon system. Sci. Rep. 7, 41489 (2017).
Li, Y. et al. Deforestation-induced climate change reduces carbon storage in remaining tropical forests. Nat. Commun. 13, 1964 (2022).
Smith, C., Baker, J. & Spracklen, D. Tropical deforestation causes large reductions in observed precipitation. Nature 615, 270–275 (2023).
Sampaio, G. et al. CO2 physiological effect can cause rainfall decrease as strong as large-scale deforestation in the Amazon. Biogeosciences 18, 2511–2525 (2021).
Li, Y. et al. Future increases in Amazonia water stress from CO2 physiology and deforestation. Nat. Water 1, 769–777 (2023).
Chai, Y. et al. Constraining Amazonian land surface temperature sensitivity to precipitation and the probability of forest dieback. npj Clim. Atmos. Sci. 4, 6 (2021).
Gimeno, L. et al. Recent progress on the sources of continental precipitation as revealed by moisture transport analysis. Earth Sci. Rev. 201, 103070 (2020).
Lennox, G. D. et al. Second rate or a second chance? Assessing biomass and biodiversity recovery in regenerating Amazonian forests. Glob. Change Biol. 24, 5680–5694 (2018).
Staal, A., Theeuwen, J. J., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Wunderling, N. & Dekker, S. C. Targeted rainfall enhancement as an objective of forestation. Glob. Change Biol. 30, e17096 (2024).
Barlow, J. et al. Policy Brief: Science Panel for the Amazon: Transforming the Amazon Through ‘Arcs of Restoration’ (United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network, 2022).
Jakovac, C. et al. Policy Brief: Science Panel for the Amazon: Strategies for Implementing and Scaling Up Forest Restoration in the Amazon (United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network, 2024).
Tuinenburg, O. A. & Staal, A. Tracking the global flows of atmospheric moisture and associated uncertainties. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 24, 2419–2435 (2020).
Dey, D. & Döös, K. Atmospheric freshwater transport from the atlantic to the pacific ocean: A lagrangian analysis. Geophys. Res. Lett. 47, e2019GL086176 (2020).
Holgate, C., Evans, J., Van Dijk, A., Pitman, A. & Di Virgilio, G. Australian precipitation recycling and evaporative source regions. J. Clim. 33, 8721–8735 (2020).
Kalverla, P., Benedict, I., Weijenborg, C. & Van Der Ent, R. J. Atmospheric moisture tracking with wam2layers v3. Geosci. Model Dev. 18, 4335–4352 (2025).
Sodemann, H. The lagrangian moisture source and transport diagnostic watersip v3. 2. Geosci. Model Dev. 18, 8887–8926 (2025).
Seland, Ø et al. Overview of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) and key climate response of CMIP6 DECK, historical, and scenario simulations. Geosci. Model Dev. 13, 6165–6200 (2020).
O’Neill, B. C. et al. The scenario model intercomparison project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev. 9, 3461–3482 (2016).
Abdelmoaty, H. M., Papalexiou, S. M., Rajulapati, C. R. & AghaKouchak, A. Biases beyond the mean in CMIP6 extreme precipitation: A global investigation. Earth’s Future 9, e2021EF002196 (2021).
Du, Y. et al. Comprehensive assessment of CMIP5 and CMIP6 models in simulating and projecting precipitation over the global land. Int. J. Climatol. 42, 6859–6875 (2022).
Arias, P. A., Rendón, M. L., Martínez, J. A. & Allan, R. P. Changes in atmospheric moisture transport over tropical South America: an analysis under a climate change scenario. Clim. Dyn. 61, 4949–4969 (2023).
Baker, J. & Spracklen, D. Divergent representation of precipitation recycling in the Amazon and the Congo in CMIP6 models. Geophys. Res. Lett. 49, e2021GL095136 (2022).
Nepstad, D. C., Tohver, I. M., Ray, D., Moutinho, P. & Cardinot, G. Mortality of large trees and lianas following experimental drought in an Amazon forest. Ecology 88, 2259–2269 (2007).
Lee, J.-Y. et al. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) Ch. 4 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2021).
Soares-Filho, B. S. et al. Modelling conservation in the Amazon basin. Nature 440, 520–523 (2006).
Singh, C., van der Ent, R., Wang-Erlandsson, L. & Fetzer, I. Hydroclimatic adaptation critical to the resilience of tropical forests. Glob. Change Biol. 28, 2930–2939 (2022).
Klose, A. K., Karle, V., Winkelmann, R. & Donges, J. F. Emergence of cascading dynamics in interacting tipping elements of ecology and climate. R. Soc. Open Sci. 7, 200599 (2020).
Brummitt, C. D., Barnett, G. & D’Souza, R. M. Coupled catastrophes: sudden shifts cascade and hop among interdependent systems. J. R. Soc. Interface 12, 20150712 (2015).
Scheffer, M., Carpenter, S., Foley, J. A., Folke, C. & Walker, B. Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature 413, 591–596 (2001).
Kuznetsov, Y. A. Elements of Applied Bifurcation Theory, Applied Mathematical Sciences Vol. 112 (Springer, 2004).
Tuinenburg, O. A., Bosmans, J. H. & Staal, A. The global potential of forest restoration for drought mitigation. Environ. Res. Lett. 17, 034045 (2022).
Fisher, R. A. et al. Vegetation demographics in Earth System Models: a review of progress and priorities. Glob. Change Biol. 24, 35–54 (2018).
Spracklen, D., Baker, J., Garcia-Carreras, L. & Marsham, J. The effects of tropical vegetation on rainfall. Ann. Rev. Environ. Resour. 43, 193–218 (2018).
Dominguez, F. et al. Amazonian moisture recycling revisited using wrf with water vapor tracers. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 127, e2021JD035259 (2022).
Von Randow, C. et al. Comparative measurements and seasonal variations in energy and carbon exchange over forest and pasture in South West Amazonia. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 78, 5–26 (2004).
Nunes, S., Oliveira, L., Siqueira, J., Morton, D. C. & Souza, C. M. Unmasking secondary vegetation dynamics in the Brazilian Amazon. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 034057 (2020).
Brando, P. M. et al. Prolonged tropical forest degradation due to compounding disturbances: Implications for CO2 and H2O fluxes. Glob. Change Biol. 25, 2855–2868 (2019).
Crameri, F. Geodynamic diagnostics, scientific visualisation and StagLab 3.0. Geosci. Model Dev. 11, 2541–2562 (2018).
Wunderling, N. et al. Data and code for ‘Deforestation-induced drying lowers amazon climate threshold’. figshare https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.28191128 (2026).